49ers vs. Jaguars Odds, Predictions, Picks: The Key To A San Francisco Cover In NFL Week 11
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Shanahan.
- In search of the latest 49ers vs. Jaguars odds? You'll find the spread and over/under in our guide to betting this Week 11 NFL matchup below.
- The 49ers had been largely underwhelming until their whomping of the Rams. Now our analyst details which version of this team is likely to show up in Jacksonville.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
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Usually by Week 11 of the NFL season, we have a decent read on each team. Of course, there are always exceptions. This game might have the single biggest wild card for the rest of the season.
The 49ers’ 2021 campaign has been quite a roller coaster so far. For a team that had the third-lowest preseason odds to win the Super Bowl, San Francisco has been largely underwhelming.
Then they closed Week 10 with a blowout win over the Rams for their first win in Santa Clara in over a calendar year. That came just eight days after losing to a Colt McCoy-led Cardinals squad.
Week 11 should be much easier against a Jaguars team that has been quite poor this year. The Jacksonville offense has scored just 30 points over its last three games, but there’s reason to believe the defense has improved. The Jags will still be the Niners’ easiest matchup since Week 1 in Detroit
Kyle Shanahan’s record as a favorite has been quite poor at just 8-20-2 against the spread (ATS) and 2-8 outright over the last 10 games as a favorite of three or more points.
It may be tempting to back the Jags, but the market prices these things in. If anything, the price on the 49ers is a bit short. If the market moves on Jacksonville, be ready to fire on San Francisco.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
49ers vs. Jaguars Injury Report
- RB JaMycal Hasty (ankle): Out
- DT Maurice Hurst (calf): Out
- RB Elijah Mitchell (finger): Doubtful
- LB Dakota Allen (shoulder): Out
- RB James Robinson (knee/heel): Questionable
49ers vs. Jaguars Matchup
|49ers Offense||DVOA Rank||Jaguars Defense|
|49ers Defense||DVOA Rank||Jaguars Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Healthy 49ers Moving the Ball Well
The 49ers offense is a hard one to get a read on because of Jimmy Garoppolo. When Shanahan is in a rhythm calling plays and the offensive line is blocking in unison, the unit can be dynamic. George Kittle’s return has made it even better.
Kittle is the best run-blocking tight end in the league, and his absence from the team between Weeks 5-8 was a huge reason why the 49ers struggled. San Francisco also lost right tackle Mike McGlinchey for the season, which was a tough blow that Kittle will help make up for.
Elijah Mitchell is doubtful after undergoing finger surgery, but the 49ers have Jeff Wilson Jr. ready to go. If Shanahan has shown us anything during his tenure in San Francisco, it’s that he can make it work with anyone. Wilson got one start last season and ran for 112 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots.
In the passing game, Garoppolo is terrible down the field and the 49ers don’t even really let him take shots. But why should they? When you can get the ball in the hands of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Kittle quickly, that’s what you should do.
With Aiyuk playing meaningful snaps again and Kittle healthy, the 49ers offense is back at full strength. Garoppolo has taken a lot of heat, but he’s sixth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play and in the top 10 in success rate. He has been an elite passer on third down over the past three years, particularly with Kittle on the field.
Back at full strength, performances like last week might become the norm for the 49ers moving forward.
Is Jaguars Defense for Real?
Over the first nine weeks of the season, Jacksonville’s defense ranked in the bottom five in EPA allowed per play and success rate. The numbers against the pass were especially grim.
Then, the Jags held Josh Allen to 4.5 yards per play and an overall negative EPA per play over 60 minutes. Buffalo completely abandoned the run, throwing it on 42 of 51 early downs, a formula that has usually worked for offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.
The Jags followed it up with a decent performance against Indianapolis, only allowing 16 offensive points and 4.8 yards per play.
It starts with the Jacksonville defensive front. It’s nauseating to hear the name “Josh Allen” after what Scott Hanson put us through during the Jags-Bills game, but the Jags’ Allen has been very strong this season. He is PFF’s No. 9 edge rusher this year.
To beat the 49ers, you need to put them in third-and-long by stopping the run on early downs. The Jags rank 18th in success rate allowed on the ground and 21st in EPA per rush.
Can Trevor Lawrence Get it Going?
We’ve been waiting 10 weeks for the Trevor Lawrence breakout game. While he has shown flashes, this Jaguars offense has continued sputtering.
Lawrence ranks 30th out of 31 qualified QBs in EPA per drop back and dead last in completion percentage over expected. He has just a 57% completion percentage with more interceptions than touchdowns. As a result, the Jaguars are averaging under 17 points per game.
This isn’t all on Lawrence, though. The coaching staff seems clueless, and Lawrence has little help. It’s easier to throw on early downs, but the Jags rank in the bottom five in early down pass frequency. On those downs, Jacksonville is 29th in EPA per play.
The 49ers defense, meanwhile, is solid on early downs, which means Lawrence could be in for a long afternoon.
Laviska Shenault Jr. and Marvin Jones Jr. are still solid weapons, and the offensive line has been better than expected. The Jaguars’ rushing attack has been solid, but with a banged-up James Robinson, expect more from Carlos Hyde.
NFL Pick: 49ers vs. Jaguars
With the Niners’ travel, short rest and big Monday night win, the narratives point toward the Jaguars.
But things like home-field advantage are overvalued in the market. This year, the average home team has been favored by two points but has only won by one-half point.
Also, Shanahan’s 49ers are 16-10 ATS in the Eastern or Central time zones. They have consistently played good football on the road.
Expect San Francisco to run the ball down Jacksonville’s throat, while the Jags will likely struggle on early downs, with Nick Bosa and Arik Armstread coming at Lawrence on third-and-long.
These teams are in different weight classes. The 49ers -6.5 is a tad short to me, and at -105 or better may constitute a small play. Keep an eye for Jags money and be ready to pounce.
If this game does play out as I expect, an angle to look for is a second-half under. In obvious passing downs, I don’t expect the Jaguars to move the ball much, while the 49ers should be able to milk the clock with slow-moving drives.
Pick: 49ers -6.5 | Bet to: -6.5 (-105)
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