Cowboys vs. Giants Odds, Predictions, Picks: The CeeDee Lamb Prop To Bet with Big Game On Deck In NFL Week 15
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images. Pictured: CeeDee Lamb
- Cowboys vs. Giants haven't moved since we published the following guide to betting this NFL Week 15 matchup.
- The spread is holding steady at Dallas -11.5 and the over/under at 44.5, but our analyst isn't betting on either this Sunday.
- Instead, find out which CeeDee Lamb prop our analyst is betting below.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
Following an important division win last week against the Washington Football Team, the Dallas Cowboys will hope to continue their success against their divisional opponents when they head to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon.
The Cowboys (9-4) jumped out to an early 18-0 lead last week against Washington, but saw their defense surrender 20 second-half points as they held onto a close, 27-20 victory. The Giants (4-9), meanwhile, were on the losing side of a 37-21 blowout loss last week at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers.
In a matchup between two divisional rivals that know each other extremely well, should we be looking away from the spread and total — and perhaps to the prop market — for value in this Week 15 NFC East bout?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Cowboys vs. Giants Injury Report
- T Tyron Smith (ankle): Out
- RB Tony Pollard (foot): Questionable
- QB Daniel Jones (neck): Out
- DB Adoree Jackson (quad): Out
- DL Austin Johnson (foot): Questionable
- DL Leonard Williams (triceps): Questionable
- WR Sterling Shepard (calf): Questionable
Cowboys vs. Giants Matchup
|Cowboys Offense||DVOA Rank||Giants Defense|
|Cowboys Defense||DVOA Rank||Giants Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Cowboys Can Win In the Air
Despite the Cowboys’ success in the standings, quarterback Dak Prescott has struggled a bit of late, throwing for just 449 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions over his last two starts. That said, he’ll likely feel good coming into this one given the Cowboys’ dominant win over this same Giants team in Week 5 where they secured a 44-20 victory.
While the Giants defense currently sports a respectable 10th-ranked pass DVOA on the season, they have allowed some strong performances to opposing quarterbacks recently. Last week, Justin Herbert threw for 275 and three touchdowns, while Tua Tagovailoa completed 73% of his passes and added two touchdowns the week prior.
Prescott also thrived in this matchup earlier this season, completing 68% of his passes for 302 yards and three touchdowns in that victory. While both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb match up well against this Giants’ secondary, Lamb has the strongest matchup of the two.
Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Lamb sports a 77.9 matchup advantage against his primary defenders in this one. He matches up particularly well against corners James Bradberry and Aaron Robinson, whom he projects to see on a combined 75% of his offensive snaps.
Lamb has been Prescott’s favorite target this season, averaging 8.3 targets per game on the season and 11.5 targets per game over their last two. Look for a big day from Lamb as the first look on many of Prescott’s drop backs in this one.
As for the running game, the matchup is good on paper, but both backs — Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard — are a bit banged up, so it’s tough to project a big day for either. I expect them to still be effective, but I would temper expectations for either one to approach a ceiling game on Sunday.
Giants Gain Little With Glennon
Mike Glennon will make his second consecutive start for the Giants with starter Daniel Jones still on the mend from a neck injury that could cost him the rest of the season. The Giants offense was anemic for most of the game last week with Glennon at the helm, but they did score a couple of late touchdowns in garbage time to make the 37-21 final score more respectable.
Glennon brings little upside to this passing attack, even against poor or neutral opponents. Unfortunately for the Giants, that won’t be the case this week as he’ll have to deal with a Cowboys defense that ranks third in total DVOA and first in pass DVOA.
While Glennon did see some action against this defense in Week 5, completing 64% of his passes for 196 yards and a touchdown, he also threw two interceptions. He has also yet to make an appearance this season without committing a turnover.
Things won’t be much easier for Saquon Barkley and the Giants’ rush attack. While the Cowboys do rank 19th in rush DVOA on the season, they’ve been able to keep opposing running backs in check of-late. Last week, they were able to hold Antonio Gibson to 3.6 yards per carry and kept Mark Ingram II to just 2.8 yards per carry the week before. All signs point to another disappointing day for this Giants offense.
Cowboys vs. Giants Predictions
With the Giants unlikely to be able to sustain many competitive offensive drives with Glennon under center, the Cowboys should have plenty of offensive possessions in this one to pick apart this underperforming defense.
With neither Elliott nor Pollard 100% healthy, I expect the bulk of the action to come via the pass, which should result in a ton of targets for both Lamb and Cooper. Lamb, in particular, matches up particularly well and should be a constant target of Prescott if the Cowboys decide to exploit the mismatch.
As such, I expect him to easily surpass the 8.3 targets per game he’s seen on the season and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him exceed the 11.2 targets per game he’s seen over his last two outings.
All of this combines into a great recipe for the over on this Lamb receiving prop. The current prop of 66.5 yards on FanDuel feels very low, especially considering his projected target share and the fact he’s met or exceed that yardage total in eight games already this season.
I’m taking the over here and would be comfortable playing it up through 74.5 if the line were to shift prior to kickoff.
Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 66.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to: 74.5
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