Eagles vs. WFT Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet This Dallas Goedert Prop When NFC East Rivals Meet In NFL Week 17
Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Dallas Goedert.
- Based on the latest Eagles vs. WFT odds, our analyst isn't targeting the spread or over/under in this NFC East showdown.
- Find out how he's instead finding betting value with his picks and predictions for this NFL Week 17 matchup below.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Parx. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
Following a strong divisional win last week against the New York Giants at home, the Philadelphia Eagles hope to continue their success within the division when they head to FedEx Field to take on the Washington Football Team on Sunday afternoon.
The Eagles (8-7) saw a big game from quarterback Jalen Hurts last week as they cruised to an easy 34-10 victory against the Giants in a game that kept them squarely in the NFC playoff picture. The Football Team (6-9), meanwhile, found themselves on the wrong end of a 56-14 blowout loss at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys on the road.
In a game between two divisional opponents that know each other extremely well, should we be looking away from the spread and total — and perhaps to the prop market — for value in this Week 17 matchup?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Eagles vs. Washington Injury Report
- RB Miles Sanders (hand): Out
- RB Jordan Howard (stinger): Questionable
- RB Antonio Gibson (COVID): Out
- WR Curtis Samuel (hamstring): Questionable
- DE Montez Sweat (NIR): Questionable
Eagles vs. Washington Matchup
|Eagles Offense||DVOA Rank||Washington Defense|
|Eagles Defense||DVOA Rank||Washington Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Eagles & Hurts Have Favorable Passing Advantage
While the numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page, Hurts had another impressive performance last week against the Giants. In that game, he threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns, but more importantly he commanded the offense with ease and did not turn the ball over en route to an easy 34-10 victory.
Perhaps even more encouraging is the fact that he did it without his typical rushing usage. His most effective games this season have been when he’s run the ball, but last week we only saw two attempts for seven total yards.
To put this in context, he’s leading all quarterbacks this season with an average of 52.9 rushing yards per game. If there’s been a knock on Hurts this season, it’s been on his passing prowess, but last week he was able to get it done against a Giants defense that came in ranked 13th against the pass.
This week, he’ll have a favorable matchup against a Washington defense that comes in ranked 27th in both Total DVOA and Pass DVOA. While I don’t expect the Eagles to suddenly become a pass-first team, the matchup sets up well for Hurts to continue improving in the passing department.
One of his top targets of late is tight end Dallas Goedert, a player who has become a big-play threat for this Eagles offense over the last few weeks. Over the last three games, Goedert is averaging 89 receiving yards per game on an average of 6.3 targets per game. Along with rookie DeVonta Smith, Goedert will undoubtedly be one of the first looks for Hurts in all passing situations on Sunday.
The Eagles rushing attack, which combines Hurts, Miles Sanders (out), Boston Scott and Jordan Howard (questionable), should have no problem against a Washington defense that has been just league average (15th overall) against the run thus far, even with the injuries. This group has averaged 201 yards per game over its last five outings, a stretch that has seen the team win four of five games and firmly entrenched it in the NFC playoff picture. The Eagles will be without Sanders, so expect a heavier dose of Scott, especially if Howard is limited in any fashion.
Washington Needs Heinicke to Improve
The Washington Football Team will hope that Taylor Heinicke can improve upon what they’ve seen from their quarterback over his last two games. In those outings, he completed just 38% of his passes for a combined 243 passing yards and only two touchdowns. He also turned the ball over four times, in what eventually amounted to two losses against the Dallas Cowboys.
Expectations should be kept in check this week as well, as Heinicke will take on an Eagles defense that has been able to limit big plays and keep the ball in front of it with success this year. In the second half of the season — a stretch in which the Eagles have gone 6-2 — they’ve seen drastic improvement in this area, ranking eighth in third-down defense and second in fewest touchdowns allowed. While Heinicke didn’t play in Washington’s last game against the Eagles, he hasn’t shown much lately to indicate he’ll be able to buck these trends.
With Antonio Gibson out, expect Jared Patterson to step in to cover early-down work, and J.D. McKissic handling his normal passing-down role. Patterson has been uninspiring with the ball this season, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry on 50 attempts. While Washington will undoubtedly try to establish the run, the recent work from Gibson and this Washington offense does not bode well for success on Sunday.
Eagles vs. WFT Predictions
If you’ve watched any Eagles games this season, there’s one thing that becomes abundantly clear in short order: This Eagles offense is a run-first team. Not only do they lead the league in rush attempts on the season with 32.3 per game, but they also have a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who is most effective when scrambling and taking the ball down the field with his legs.
Unsurprisingly, defenses have been loading up the box frequently against this offense, which has opened things up in the middle of the field for tight end Dallas Goedert. Goedert has been on a tear lately, averaging 89 receiving yards per game over his last three, including a seven-catch, 135-yard performance against this same Washington team just two weeks ago. He’s also been one of Hurts’ favorite targets over this stretch, averaging 6.3 targets per game over that span.
When taking into consideration both his success in this same matchup and recent usage trends, his current receiving prop of 54.5 yards offers substantial value this week. If we zoom out a bit and look at the entire season (part of which also included Zach Ertz stealing targets), we also see that Goedert has already exceeded this total in seven games thus far and in three of his last four outings.
I’m hitting the over on this Goedert prop and would be comfortable playing it all the way up to 60.5 if the line shifts prior to kickoff.
Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 54.5 Receiving Yards| Bet to: Over 60.5
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