Jaguars vs. Colts Odds, Predictions, NFL Picks: Bet This Over/Under Before Pros Bet It Even More

Jaguars vs. Colts Odds

Coming off a stunning 9-6 victory last week against the Buffalo Bills at home, the Jacksonville Jaguars look to continue the momentum this week when they visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts.

The Jaguars (2-6) struggled throughout most of the game, but they came together in the fourth quarter just enough for the offense to secure the game on a late field goal from Matthew Wright. The Colts (4-5), meanwhile, took care of business at home last week with a commanding 45-30 win over the New York Jets.

In a game between two AFC South rivals, where should we look for value in this Week 10 matchup?

Jaguars vs. Colts Matchup

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Jaguars, Lawrence Face Leaky Pass Defense

Coming off his second professional victory last week, rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence will have a chance to keep things moving in the right direction against this 26th-ranked Colts pass defense. While he hasn’t excelled as a passer so far this season, he should have plenty of opportunities against a group that allowed four passing touchdowns last week to a combination of Josh Johnson and Mike White.

In fact, expect the Jaguars to lean on the pass in this one to avoid running into this second-ranked Colts rush defense. Jacksonville struggled last week, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry last week against the Bills, the team ranked right below the Colts in rush DVOA rankings coming into Week 10. Expect a similarly poor result here on the road against this stout unit. Top back James Robinson is also questionable with a heel injury, so even if he plays, he likely won’t be 100%.

The Jaguars' biggest Achilles heel this season has been turnovers. Per The Football Database, their -9 turnover differential this season is fourth-worst among all teams. The Colts, meanwhile, find themselves on the opposite end of the spectrum with a +11 differential, second-best in the league.

Colts Have Big Receiving Matchup Advantage

The Colts offense was firing on all cylinders last week, notching six offensive touchdowns (three passing, three rushing) against a poor Jets defense. They’ll find themselves in a similar spot this week against the Jaguars' 27th-ranked defense in Total DVOA, a team that outside of last week has struggled mightily to keep opposing offenses in check.

Quarterback Carson Wentz should also be in line for a big day against this Jaguars 32nd-ranked Pass DVOA. As expected, his top receiving option on the season thus far, Michael Pittman Jr, will have a strong matchup against his primary defenders here. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Pittman will have a 70.0 matchup advantage when matched up against Tyson Campbell, a player he projects to see on nearly 44% of his offensive snaps.

Running back Jonathan Taylor will have a bit of a tougher time, however, as this Jaguars defense surprisingly comes into the game with the eighth-ranked Rush DVOA on the season thus far. That said, he’s one of the best running backs in the league, averaging 123 yards from scrimmage per game thus far, so don’t expect this Colts running game to be shut down here.

NFL Pick: Jaguars vs. Colts

While the rankings suggest the Jaguars should find a good deal of success moving the ball against this 26th-ranked Colts pass defense, the reality of this Jacksonville team is that it can’t seem to hang onto the ball long enough to turn many of its successful drives into points. Against a Colts team that is near the top of the league in turnover differential, we’re likely to see very few points from the Jaguars here.

While the Colts offensive matchup is strong and I do expect a solid performance here, they do tend to slow things down a bit when they jump out to a sizable lead. In fact, when leading by 7+ points, their 31.4 seconds per play is sixth-slowest in the entire lead.

At a relatively high total of 47.5 points, there is value on the under. In fact, this total has been dropping all week. It started as high as 51 points, but sharps have pushed it all the way down to the current number. I still like it at 47.5, but I would play it down to 47 if the line continues to move before kickoff.

Pick: Under 47.5 | Bet to: Under 47