Dolphins vs. Jets Odds, Predictions, Picks: Betting Preview Feat. DeVante Parker Prop With Jaylen Waddle Out
Chris Coduto/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami Dolphins standout DeVante Parker.
- With Jets vs. Dolphins odds shifting slightly since our analyst wrote the following guide to betting this NFL Week 15 matchup, where does the betting value lie?
- Although the spread has moved from Dolphins -9.5 to -10 or -10.5 and the over/under shifted from 41 to 425, our analyst is instead targeting a prop.
- With Jaylen Waddle in COVID protocols, find out why he's expecting a big day from DeVante Parker.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
After a lopsided loss last week to the New Orleans Saints at home, the New York Jets will hope to rebound in this divisional bout when they head to Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.
The Jets (3-10) could not get anything going on offense last week, scoring just nine points and yielding zero offensive touchdowns in an eventual 30-9 loss. The Dolphins (6-7), meanwhile, are coming off an impressive 33-10 win at home against the struggling Carolina Panthers.
With the Dolphins needing a win to remain on the outskirts of the AFC playoff picture, it will be imperative that they get the ball in the hands of their biggest playmakers on Sunday. Which individual matchup — and prop bet — should we be looking to exploit in this Week 15 AFC East matchup?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Jets vs. Dolphins Injury Report
- T George Fant (knee): Doubtful
- OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle): Questionable
- DL Sheldon Rankins (knee): Questionable
- OL Dan Feeney (back): Questionable
- WR Jaylen Waddle (COVID): Doubtful
- LG Austin Jackson (illness): Questionable
- S Jevon Holland (illness): Questionable
- TE Adam Shaheen (knee): Questionable
Jets vs. Dolphins Matchup
|Jets Offense||DVOA Rank||Dolphins Defense|
|Jets Defense||DVOA Rank||Dolphins Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Jets Continue To Struggle With Injuries
Zach Wilson’s rookie struggles continued last week when a tough Saints defense held him to just a 45% completion percentage and 202 passing yards. He also failed to throw a touchdown pass for the sixth time in his nine professional starts. On the bright side, he was able to avoid turning the ball over, something he’s done 11 times thus far on the season.
Wilson will have a chance this week to improve on those numbers against a Dolphins defense that currently ranks 25th in total DVOA and 22nd against the pass. For that to happen, he’ll have to both avoid turning the ball over and improve upon the quickness of his progressions when dropping back to pass. The Dolphins have found a good deal of success with the blitz, against which Wilson has struggled.
He’ll also be without two of his top options in Elijah Moore and Corey Davis (both on injured reserve), which will force him to rely on the likes of Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, Denzel Mims and Braxton Berrios. None have been a consistent option for Wilson, which should make things difficult for him despite a relatively favorable matchup.
Instead, expect the Jets to look to the running game as the main lever against this 30th-ranked Dolphins rush defense. Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman are both expected back this week, with Carter expected to have a “significant role” in the offense again.
While Carter has had on-and-off success this year in his rookie season, Coleman has been their most effective runner, averaging 4.6 yards per carry over his last two outings. Expect both to be heavily involved for the Jets this week given Carter hasn’t played since Week 11.
Dolphins Looking Up
After struggling to start the season, Tua Tagovailoa has played well since his return from injury in Week 6. Over that span, he’s completed 73% of his passes for 1,730 yards, 11 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
Things should continue to move in the right direction in Week 15 for Tagovailoa and this offense. They’ll get an ideal matchup on Sunday against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in both total DVOA and pass DVOA. That bodes well for his top options this week in DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, both of whom have had success in featured roles this season.
Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Parker has the best matchup of the bunch this week. He’ll come in with an 88.7 matchup advantage against his primary defenders, one of the best marks among all players in the league in Week 15. He’ll also have an extraordinary 100.0 matchup advantage when lined up against cornerback Brandin Echols, someone he’ll see on a projected 41% of his snaps on Sunday. Expect a ceiling day for Parker this week with Waddle in COVID-19 protocols.
Jets vs. Dolphins Predictions
When Parker has been healthy this season, he’s been a borderline WR1 for this Dolphins offense with Tagovailoa under center, corralling at least four catches in each start with 62 yards or more in four of six games.
He’s also seeing an average of eight targets per game on the year, a number that will likely only increase this week with fewer passing options for Tagovailoa. This is a smash spot for Parker.
His current receiving prop of 54.5 receiving yards is inexplicably low given the matchup, so be sure to grab this quickly before the line shoots up. I’m loading up at the current number and would be comfortable playing it up through 61.5 yards if it continues to move prior to kickoff.
Pick: DeVante Parker Over 54.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to: 61.5
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