NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: An Expert’s Betting Edges On Saints-Titans Spread, Panthers-Cardinals Over/Under
John McCreary/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey
- Our expert's two biggest edges for Week 10 are still within the ranges he would bet them at.
- After comparing NFL odds to his own projections, find out why those edges are on the Saints-Titans spread and Panthers-Cardinals over/under.
NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
|Saints +3 at Titans|
|Panthers-Cardinals Under 44|
Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals the biggest betting edges based on discrepancies between Week 10 NFL odds and his Power Ratings, which help power our NFL PRO Projections.
He has a 453-345-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow him to receive notifications for all of his picks.
The Titans upset the Rams, 28-16, last week thanks primarily to Matthew Stafford throwing two interceptions that led to 14 easy points for Tennessee. However, the Titans’ offense looked sluggish without Derrick Henry, and now they’ve lost Julio Jones for at least the next three games after placing him on IR with a hamstring injury.
The Titans are a “sell high” team with a 7-2 record that has been inflated by their luck in one-score matchups, going 3-1 in such games this season. And on the other side of the ball, the Saints offer a good “buy low” opportunity after losing to the Falcons in a 27-25 nail bitter.
Alvin Kamara and Terron Armstead have already been ruled out for Sunday’s game, which is a crushing blow to the Saints’ offense. Luckily, they recently acquired Mark Ingram, who should handle a full workload and prevent too much of a drop-off without such a talented back like Kamara.
The Saints have also yet to unleash Taysom Hill after losing Jameis Winston for the season. There’s a chance head coach Sean Payton limited Hill’s usage last week to ease him back into the lineup upon his return from a concussion. However, I like betting on offensive genius Sean Payton to make the most out of his offense this week and pull off the upset.
Additionally, their No. 3 ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA should limit a Titans offense without Henry and Jones.
I would bet this only to +3.
I would project this total closer to 45 points if Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins were at 100% health. Unfortunately, even if both can suit up Sunday, that likely would not be the case — especially since Murray would be playing through an ankle injury, which would limit his rushing and scrambling ability.
It seems likely the Cardinals will play it safe and hold out both playmakers this week. Especially after decidedly beating the 49ers without their stud QB-WR duo, the Cardinals should be able to beat a Panthers team that’s starting former XFL star P.J. Walker without them.
I like the idea of locking this in early, because if Murray and/or Hopkins are ruled out (again), this total would likely drop closer to 41.5 points (check real-time NFL odds here).
I’d only play the under down to 43.5 points.