Thanksgiving NFL Odds & Picks: Predictions for Texans vs. Lions, Washington vs. Cowboys From Our Betting Model
Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott.
- Making betting picks for Thanksgiving's 3-game NFL slate? You're in the right place.
- Our model has projected spreads and over/unders for each of today's games, and one of those projections is providing a massive edge to bettors.
- Find our predictions for Texans vs. Lions, Washington vs. Cowboys and Ravens vs. Steelers below.
Editor's note: The Ravens-Steelers matchup originally scheduled for Thanksgiving night has been postponed for Sunday afternoon, so the section on that game has been removed.
Nothing about 2020 has been "normal," but the NFL's two-game Thursday schedule will allow us to do what we normally do on Thanksgiving: eat, drink, gamble, repeat.
Texans vs. Lions will get us started at 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS), followed by Washington vs. Cowboys at 4:30 p.m. (FOX).
Thanksgiving NFL matchups will always attract plenty of action because of the holiday, but that doesn't necessarily mean the games are also smart bets.
However, according to our NFL PRO Projections, our model has identified one extremely attractive Thanksgiving wager — the biggest betting edge of Week 12 and one of the best of the season.
Let's look at our betting model predictions for both Thanksgiving NFL matchups, including the edge that bettors need to jump on right now.
NFL Odds & Picks: Texans vs. Lions
| Texans Odds | -3 |
| Lions Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 51.5 |
| PRO Projections | Lions -0.3 | O/U: 51.9 |
Not only is Texans vs. Lions the first game of the day, it's also offering one of the best edges of the entire NFL season.
Our model pegs the Lions as small favorites in this game, yet the current line has Detroit getting a field goal.
Considering the importance of 3 in NFL betting, the difference between Lions -0.3 and +3 represents a massive 10.1% edge for a very rare A+ grade from our PRO Projections.
PRO Projection Pick: Lions +3
NFL Odds & Picks: Washington vs. Cowboys
| Washington Odds | +3 |
| Cowboys Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 46 |
| PRO Projections | Cowboys -1 | O/U: 45 |
When looking at the raw difference between the spread (+3) and our projection (+1), you'd think it represents a solid edge with taking the points with Washington.
However, in order to back Washington at that number you also have to pay the consensus vig of -122, which results in a 2.5% edge.
This is a prime example of why it's crucial to have access to tools that continuously update in real-time and report the latest odds (including juice) and projections, and ultimately edges.
If you'll be on the road at any point for the Thanksgiving holiday, download our FREE mobile app to track live odds and updated projections directly from your smart phone.
At just a C-graded pick, this is likely a bet to pass on unless other value indicators are aligning with Washington as well.
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