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NFL Player Prop Pick for Week 10: Expert Fades Jarvis Landry in Saints vs Steelers

NFL Player Prop Pick for Week 10: Expert Fades Jarvis Landry in Saints vs Steelers article feature image
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Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: Jarvis Landry.

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Jarvis Landry Longest Reception

Prop Jarvis Landry Longest Reception — Under 16.5 Yards
Matchup Saints vs. Steelers
Time 1 p.m. ET
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Landry returns to the Saints lineup after a five-game absence with a sprained ankle. As a slot receiver whose snap participation only exceeded 70% once in his four games, I’m skeptical how much he’ll see the field in this one, especially outdoors in the cold of Pittsburgh.

Even if Landry does assume his full allotment of snaps, his role should be limited to short routes. Chris Olave has assumed the alpha receiver role, even with his gaudy 15.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Andy Dalton only averages 8.5 air yards per throw, meaning a very high percentage of his downfield shots are going to Olave.

Landry had a big Week 1, including two catches of 32 and 40 yards. However, that was with the deep-ball-happy Jameis Winston slinging it, and slant-route-maven Michael Thomas was also playing. The LSU product will now be running routes alongside speedsters Olave, Marquez Callaway and Rashid Shaheed.

The Steelers pass defense isn’t anything to write home about, but the matchup in general could lessen the need for the passing game. The Saints should be in position to keep game-script either neutral, or in their favor. The Taysom Hill playbook should factor in more, as well, which likely doesn’t include Landry.

Landry stayed under this line in his prior three games – in fact he didn’t register a target on a throw of at least 15 air yards. I see that trend continuing today.

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