NFL Props To Bet Sunday: Tyreek Hill Under Among Expert’s Top Wild Card Round Picks
Getty Images. 49ers WR Deebo Samuel, Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill, Bucs WR Breshad Perriman (left to right)
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, reveals his favorite NFL playoff props for Sunday. He has a 530-418-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
Tyreek Hill Under 70.5 Receiving Yards
8:15 p.m. ET kickoff
Hill was limited with a heel injury in Week 18, finishing with only one catch for two yards on a critical fourth-down conversion. There’s a chance the Chiefs use him as a decoy here in order to keep him healthy for a potential Super Bowl run. They should be able to beat the Steelers with a run-heavy, conservative game plan, so I like the value we are getting on a banged up Hill.
I’m projecting this closer to 63.5 yards.
Bet to: 65.5
Deebo Samuel Under 64.5 Receiving Yards
4:30 p.m. ET kickoff
Samuel is so dangerous with the ball in his hands that the 49ers have been giving him 5-8 rush attempts a game since Week 10. That’s naturally led to a decrease in his receiving production as he’s cleared this number in only three of eight games since they started deploying him this way.
Samuel’s receiving production could take another hit considering the Cowboys play man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL:
- vs. man: 1.88 yards per route run
- vs. zone: 3.67 yards per route run
I’m projecting this closer to 56.5 yards.
Bet to: 60.5
Breshad Perriman Under 39.5 Receiving Yards
1 p.m. ET kickoff
With Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown out, Perriman enters the 2021 playoffs as Tom Brady’s No. 3 WR. Perriman has a ton of upside as a result, but this market is overinflated.
Weather could be an issue considering the forecast in Tampa Bay calls for sustained 15-20 mph wind, with gusts up to 30 mph, so I expect the Bucs to lean on their run game with a more conservative passing attack underneath. As a result, the chances of Perriman hauling in a deep pass in this game are lowered significantly.
His man vs. zone splits, per PFF, also suggest he could struggle against a zone-heavy defense like the Eagles:
- vs. man: 2.47 yards per route run
- vs. zone: 0.52 yards per route run
I’m projecting Perriman closer to 29.5 yards here.
Bet to: 35.5