The NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 11 of the 2025 season.
These NFL rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
When there is a large difference in luck between two teams, there has been proven success in betting on the unlucky team.
When the Luck Score in a game is 1.454 or higher, unlucky teams are 161-109-7 against the closing spread — the hardest line to beat. That equates to a 59.6% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size greater than 270 games!
In Week 10, the unlucky teams went 4-1 ATS, moving luck-based sides to 18-10 (64.3%) ATS on the year. In these 28 games, the unlucky team has covered by an average of 3.4 points.
Luck Totals went 2-0 on the week, with the weak Luck Under going 1-0 to the under and the strong Luck Over going 1-0 to the over. Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 11-14 (44%) while strong Luck Totals move to 3-4 (42.9%) on the season.
Overall, strong totals and sides have a 21-14 (60%) record in 2025.
Here's how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 11, and be sure to check back on Wednesday, as Dr. Nick Giffen breaks down the Week 11 luck-based games.
NFL Week 11 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets, while the opposite may be true for unlucky teams.
