Welcome to the Action Network NFL Luck Rankings dashboard for Week 5!
This dashboard will be updated weekly throughout the NFL season to provide you a full look into many — but not all — of the luck elements that go into Action Network's Luck Rankings.
I say not all, because this Luck Dashboard is focused on the most common luck elements that are either:
- Out of a team's control, or
- Above or below the predictable level of a player or team's performance
For example, we can't expect a kicker to make every single kick forever. There's some natural kicking performance level that a kicker could exceed or fail to meet on any given week that depends on a plethora of factors.
So when I talk about kicking luck, I'm not just looking at opposing kicking luck, where a team has almost no control over whether the other team's kicker makes a kick, but also the kicker's own luck above or below his own performance level.
And this expected performance level can move as the kicker's performance level changes.
To get the most out of these dashboards, make sure you use the following features:
- Dropdowns: Click on a team or table element and a dropdown will appear with a more in-depth breakdown
- Backup mode: For teams that have had multiple QBs play so far this year, toggle backup mode on in the QB INT and QB Sack tables to see the backup QB's luck and projection should they become the starter that week.
- (NEW!) Bye weeks toggle: Uncheck "hide byes" if you want to see a players stats even if they are on a bye week (they of course won't have a projection).
- WP/EP mode: WP mode is for win probability. Fumbles in high-leverage situations add or take away win probability more in late-game situations when it's close. But in terms of expected points — EP mode — it would be a similar number of expected points regardless of game situation.
- Sorting: Click a column header to sort the table by that column's values
- Night mode: Toggle night mode on or off both on mobile and desktop.
- Over/Under percentages: For tabs with a projection (QB INT, QB sacks, Kickers), there are dropdowns to choose a market line over or under, and an associated percentage will display with it.
- Hyperlinks: Click a team name to go to the team page, or in some of the clickable dropdowns there are hyperlinks to other pages in the dashboard.
- Team colors: If you have a favorite NFL team, you can choose theme in the "theme" dropdown and click their helmet once to have the table header display in their colors. In dark mode, you can also click a second time for the full table, not just the headers, to display in their colors.
Also, there are three new features this week.
- Bye week toggle (see above)
- OL/DL: I'm introducing my offensive vs. defensive lines matchups. This is really the offensive line vs. the defensive front seven, adjusted by how much each player is involved in pass rushing or run stopping. That means middle linebackers often barely contribute, and their "ratings" may look off simply because it's their pass rush rating and doesn't include any kind of pass coverage rating. This also lets you find injury value between the offensive and defensive lines. There are "season" and "all-time" (since 2019) tabs so you can see how these lines compared to each other this year and overall since 2019.
- Two new betting systems: I've come up with two new against-the-spread betting systems based off injuries that have beat closing lines in the 54-55% neighborhood over a sample of a several hundred games since 2019 and that have positive records through four weeks so far in 2026. Treat these systems as preliminary until we know full game-day rosters. You can find these on the "SLATE" tab in the drilldowns for each game.
Finally, I've removed one feature.
The "PROPS" tab is now gone. I noticed a certain sportsbook pricing their lines exactly off the props tab so that all 64 betting options (over and under total sacks for 16 games, and two first sack team options for 16 games) were priced based off my props tab model with some extra juice each way to make it all un-bettable. Since the goal is to find betting edges, I'll just have to track them in the Action App so you all can tail them there without giving away the edges before we get to bet them. Be sure to follow me there.
So here is the NFL Luck Rankings Dashboard for Week 5. I'm happy to receive any feedback about bugs, improvements, or things you'd like to see on it going forward!
