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We are officially in October football.
Week 4 was a bit of a reset. After two strong weeks and one week stranded in the Mariana Trench, last week felt much more normal. We hit our spots, added +2.19 units to the bankroll, and now sit just under 10% ROI on the season in this column.
But the past is the past, so let's get to a new set of Week 5 picks. We've got spreads, totals, escalators, and long shots, as always.
Let's get into my NFL Week 5 Mega Preview, as well as a lookahead bet for next week.
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NFL Week 5 Picks, Props, Same-Game Parlays
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Colts vs Steelers
We started last week with a Jordan Love passing escalator, so how about we run it back with the guy he replaced?
This is the single worst scheduling spot of the entire season for any team. The Colts are traveling back from London without a bye week, staying on the road, and playing a Steelers team enjoying extra rest off Thursday Night Football.
Before the season, I would have assumed this was an automatic bet on Pittsburgh at anything under -3. However, even after pricing in this scheduling discrepancy, my numbers still slightly prefer Indy. I'll pass on the side.
Both of these defenses rank top 12 in DVOA against the run, but sit in the bottom 10 against the pass. Meanwhile, both offenses rank in the top 10 rushing and the bottom 10 passing.
So, what gives?
It falls on the quarterbacks: Daniel Jones vs. Aaron Rodgers. I have to give a slight advantage to Rodgers here, and we are going to play his passing yards.
The Colts defense has been a pass funnel under Lou Anarumo. They allowed the second-most passing attempts and yards (262) last year, with opposing quarterbacks at 219+ yards in 12 of 17 games (71%). Of the five misses, two were due to mid-game injuries, meaning there were only three true unders.
This year, the Colts have allowed the fifth-most passing yards, the sixth-most QB fantasy points, and two 300+ yard passers (Lamar Jackson for 324, Patrick Mahomes for 382).
Rodgers is playing differently under Mike McCarthy. The veteran QB is much more aggressive and attacking, boasting a top-10 aDOT (9.1) while seeing his attempts rise from 31 to 38 and his yardage jump from 208 to 250 yards per game. His standard line is sitting at a very beatable 220.5.
The bet: Aaron Rodgers Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Fanatics)
If you're playing the over, you should also play the Reluctant Rodgers Escalator.
We are getting almost 2-1 on 250+ yards, a number right at Rodgers' average this season and a threshold hit in 8 of 17 games (almost half) against the Colts last year.
Moving up, 275+ hit for over a third of Colts opponents, and Rodgers has cleared that in his last two games.
Lastly, 300+ yards pays out at +650. Indy has allowed a 300-yard passer six times since the start of last year (including twice already this year).
Rodgers tapped out at 292 and 299 yards this season, and he has only thrown for 300 yards once since 2021 … but why not today?
Escalator bets: Rodgers 250+ Yards (+187 at DraftKings) / 275+ Yards (+310 at Fanatics) / 300+ Yards (+650 at DraftKings)
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Giants vs Commanders
This is a wonky Giants line for a second straight week. Just like last week, I actually make the Giants outright favorites, ever so slightly here.
What have the Commanders done well? What have they done to be clear favorites?
Jayden Daniels looks like he'll play, but what version of him are we getting, and how rusty will he be?
Washington has 23 names on the injury report, including both starting wide receivers, multiple offensive linemen, and key defensive players (with stud T Laremy Tunsil already out). This is a tired team traveling back from London with no rest. Typically, that means a tired defense and an opposing team total over.
The Giants defense is the best unit of the four by DVOA so far, right around the league average. New York's special teams also provide an advantage, ranking No. 2 in DVOA under head coach John Harbaugh, while Washington sits in the bottom 10.
This is an awesome trend spot for New York.
Harbaugh is 58% against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, including an incredible 20-9-1 ATS (69%) as a division 'dog, which ranks No. 2 in our Bet Labs database. By contrast, Dan Quinn is the worst active favorite at 27-39 ATS (41%).
Jameis Winston as an underdog of more than a field goal is 23-13-1 ATS (64%). And in a team-agnostic trend, division road 'dogs between three and seven points since 2006 are 57% ATS across almost 400 games.
This line is goofy.
I grabbed it at Giants +4.5 but still love it at +4 or +3.5 above the key number of 3. Last week, we played the Giants and had the cover all game, then lucked into the alt -6.5 on a walk-off pick-six. Let's roll it over and try another Giants alt.
Ten of the last 13 meetings between these teams have been one-score games, including four decided by 6, 7, or 8 points.
The bet: Giants +4 (Caesars)
The Alt SGP: Giants ML & Commanders +8.5 (+260 at Fanatics)
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Vikings vs Saints
I already took Vikings -1.5 on the Lookahead section last week.
I don't love the Vikings' offensive line injuries, but I fully trust Brian Flores' defense against the Saints' offensive line and Tyler Shough, who already has 12 sacks and five fumbles in four games.
Start with the Under 42.
The Vikings' last three games have averaged just 25.3 points, and most of that scoring is just Will Reichard making field goals. Kyler Murray road unders are 68%, Shough home unders are 75%, and Kellen Moore totals below 44 are 67% to the under.
How about the Vikings to score first and win (+173)? We know the Saints continue to have awful first-quarter and first-half starts.
Reichard Over 7.5 kicking points is the standalone pick. In the Vikings' last three games, Reichard has scored 35 points, with the rest of the team contributing six on a punt return and six from the entire offense.
Reichard has scored seven, nine, 11, and 15 points this year. He has at least seven points in nine straight games, averaging 10.0 points per game.
The Saints defense is bad. Aaron Jones will run the ball, they'll move the chains, stall out, and kick field goals. The Saints allowed the top 7 most kicker points last year, giving up over 7.5 points in 10 of 17 games.
Let's play Reichard on his own and then build a fun little Vikings parlay.
The bet: Will Reichard Over 7.5 Kicking Points (+105 at bet365)
The SGP: Vikings Score First & Win, Under 42, & Reichard Over 7.5 Pts (+650 at bet365)
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Browns vs Jets
How bad do the Browns have to be to sit as underdogs to the Jets despite a 3-1 record? I am still very happy to sell Cleveland and buy New York.
Both of these teams feature beatable run defenses, but the Browns are awful running the football. Both teams also feature above-average pass defenses (so far), but I trust Geno Smith and the Jets offense significantly more.
I don't necessarily love the spot for the Jets. Their defense was on the field for 80+ plays against Chicago last week, while the Browns are enjoying extra rest after playing on Thursday Night Football.
However, that isn't enough to get me off the -1.5. I make this line over a field goal for New York.
I am just willing to bet the Jets are the better team and that the Browns cannot punish a tired defense.
The bet: Jets -1.5
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Texans vs Titans
This feels like the ultimate get-right spot for the Texans.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans is calling the defensive plays again, but the real fix for this team is just facing Cam Ward and Brian Daboll's offense.
The Titans are not going to hit explosive plays, and the Houston defensive line will utterly dominate the Tennessee offensive line.
Houston's offense is better than you think, but this still feels like an under all day.
Ryans road unders are 16-10 (62%), and Robert Saleh unders below 44 points are 26-16-1 (62%). It looks windy and rainy, and windy unders over the last five seasons hit at 61%.
The Texans have won six of the last seven meetings against the Titans, and every single one of those wins stayed at a total of 37 or fewer. That’s their usual script — the last five Texans wins of any type have all finished at 36 total points or below.
Let's play for a classic Texans outcome as Houston finally finds its first win of the season.
The bet: Texans ML & Under 38.5 SGP (+147 at Caesars)
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49ers vs Seahawks
This is the Game of the Week for the early crown in the NFC.
These teams split their regular-season meetings since Mike Macdonald arrived in Seattle, with all four games won by the road team. Notably, Seattle's defense crushed San Francisco's offense in the last two matchups, including a dominant playoff win.
Seattle's offense is by far the weak link here — it cannot run the ball at all right now.
I lean San Francisco +3, backed by some solid trends for unbeaten underdogs. However, Seattle's defense is a tremendous weapon against the 49ers offense, which leads me directly to Christian McCaffrey's receiving props.
By design, Macdonald's defense shuts down the traditional run game. The Seahawks allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs last year, but they allowed the most running back receptions. Opposing backs caught 4+ passes in all but three games last year, and Seattle is already allowing the third-most RB receptions this year.
McCaffrey caught five, six, and nine passes in his three games against Seattle last year, and he averages 6.0 receptions per game in his five matchups with the 49ers against Macdonald defenses.
McCaffrey has only logged three, four, four, and five catches this year, but his snap count has spiked from 54% in the first two games to 79% over the last two as he finds his rhythm.
San Francisco is also completely out of weapons. The 49ers' wide receivers are all hurt, and Kyle Juszczyk is out, leaving his slot snaps and targets available for McCaffrey.
McCaffrey hit 4.5+ receptions in 13 of 17 games last year, including all three against Seattle. Moving up the escalator, 6+ catches hit for McCaffrey in 11 of 17 games last year, and 7+ hit seven times.
Seattle allowed 5+ running back receptions in 13 of 21 games since the start of last year, and it allowed 7+ catches in almost half of its games.
The bet: Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (-116 at DraftKings)
Escalator bets: McCaffrey 6+ Receptions (+166 at DraftKings) / 7+ Receptions (+305 at Caesars)
While we are targeting San Francisco pass-catchers out of the backfield, let's look at the guy who might be replacing Juszczyk.
I'll be honest — I only learned of Brayden Willis's existence last week.
Juszczyk has been a key part of Shanahan's attack this season, using his motion out of the backfield and presence in the slot to manipulate the defense. When Juszczyk left the game last week, Willis stepped in for 13 snaps. He's the third-string tight end but is filling in as an H-back type in the Juszczyk fullback role.
Willis is so little known right now that Pro Football Reference literally lists his defensive tackle stats from special teams. He's never had a reception or even a target in the NFL.
But we know running backs catch passes against the Seahawks — they've already allowed two receiving touchdowns to running backs this year. Juszczyk had at least two targets in four straight games against Seattle and in three of his four games this year.
We will likely only get one shot at this, maybe on a fullback dive near the goal line, but Shanahan is creative.
At 22-1, I'll take a sprinkle on a surprise Sunday TD scorer.
The bet: Brayden Willis Anytime TD (+2200 at bet365)
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Lions vs Cardinals
This might be my single favorite escalator of the season so far. I cannot believe the lines we are getting. There is immense upside value here.
I do not need to tell you there will be points in this game. The total sits at 54.5 and is rising.
Detroit's game totals this year have been 55, 58, 61, and 72 points. Both defenses rank in bottom three in DVOA and are especially atrocious against the pass due to secondary injuries.
The trends love Detroit, but laying -5.5 puts us in no man’s land. Instead, I want to target WR1s against the Lions.
Detroit allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers in each of the last two years and sits at No. 2 again this season.
The Lions let Chris Olave smash them in the opener (10 catches, 182 yards on 13 targets). I wanted to play Garrett Wilson and Tetairoa McMillan against them in recent weeks but passed — Wilson went for 10/107 on 16 targets, and McMillan destroyed them on Sunday Night Football for 14/192/2.
This continues a glaring trend from last season.
I count 14 true WR1s that have faced Detroit since the start of last year. Those alpha receivers averaged 7.1 catches for 103.6 yards on 11.0 targets. They grabbed 8+ catches in all but one of those games and cleared 100+ yards in over half of them (8 of 14).
Everyone knows Trey McBride, but for some reason, there is very little buzz around Michael Wilson — even after he broke out in the back half of last season with Jacoby Brissett.
Over his last 12 games, Wilson is on a 17-game pace of 115 catches, 1,463 yards, and 10 touchdowns. He is an absolute beast.
Over that 12-game stretch, he is averaging 6.75 receptions for 86 yards, eclipsing 89+ yards in over half of those games (7 of 12) and 99+ yards in a third of them (4 of 12).
If you thought it was a fluke last year due to pass-heavy game scripts and monster target shares, think again. Wilson averaged 11 targets per game over his last eight games last year, and he is seeing exactly that volume this year, including 13 and 17 targets over his last two games.
I am projecting Wilson around 7.5 catches for 95 yards against Detroit, with upside for 10+ receptions and 100 or even 150+ yards.
I prefer the yardage props here because Detroit gives up so many big chunk plays. Wilson's 72.5-yard line is way too low. He is averaging 86 yards per game over his last 12, and Detroit allows an average of 104 yards to opposing WR1s.
Moving up, 100+ yards is +250. Detroit allows 100+ yards to WR1s over half the time, and Wilson has hit 99+ four times in his last 12 games. He hasn't done it yet this year, but saw 15 targets per game in those two outings. Last year, he saw 15 targets three times and produced 118, 142, and 185 yards.
Detroit allowed 120+ yards in 6 of those 14 WR1 games and 150+ yards four times (including twice already this year, with 156, 181, 182, and 192 yard spikes). I'm playing the escalator all the way up.
If you have Hard Rock, you have to play the extreme alternate lines too. It is absurd that the odds jump +500 every 5-7 yards at the top of the escalator. One extra catch could take us from +1500 to +2000 and +3000, and any line that far off must be exploited.
Keep an eye out for the "Week 5 Most Receiving Yards" market, which hit for Olave and McMillan when they faced Detroit.
The bet: Michael Wilson Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at bet365)
Escalator bets: Wilson 10+ Receptions (+900 at BetRivers) / 100+ Receiving Yards (+250 at bet365) / 125+ Receiving Yards (+550 at FanDuel) / 150+ Receiving Yards (+1150 at Hard Rock)
Hard Rock Alt Escalators: Over 158.5 (+1500) / Over 162.5 (+2000) / Over 168.5 (+2500) / Over 172.5 (+3000)
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Ravens vs Falcons
This is the other wonk line of the week.
What are we doing here? One week ago, this line was Ravens -6.5. Lamar Jackson's injury dropped it to Ravens -3.5 on Sunday night. Then a Falcons blowout on Monday Night Football combined with Jackson being ruled out flipped it to Falcons -2.5, now Falcons -3.5.
That is a 10-point swing! That is insane. That is far too much adjustment for a quarterback, even one as good as Jackson, and it's far too much faith in Atlanta.
Downgrading from Jackson to Tyler Huntley (technically a Pro Bowl replacement!) drops Baltimore from a top-7 to a bottom-7 offense in my ratings, and from top-3 overall to just outside the top 10. That is a massive drop, but Baltimore is still way better than the Falcons.
I usually love Huntley unders. He is 11-5 to the under as a starter, including 8-3 with Baltimore. But the total has dropped six points, and that was under John Harbaugh's old system.
We just saw Ben Johnson succeed with a backup QB, and now it is mentee Declan Doyle's turn. We keep seeing these backup quarterbacks show up and provide great road value.
Is Atlanta real? I don't buy it yet.
We saw them post random big games like this last year.
Bijan Robinson was rolling against awful run defenses that were practically inviting the run. Baltimore is not that opponent. The Ravens are vastly better coached and will be ready. Jesse Minter is not going to invite the run.
Atlanta's speedy defense looks great against specific opponents, like the bad Green Bay and New Orleans offensive lines, but Baltimore will test them physically.
Atlanta is coming off a short week and an emotional division win. This is a big bet on the Ravens defense, which ranks No. 2 in my matrix. I'm not sure I totally believe that ranking, but I absolutely trust them against the run with Justin Madubuike back.
I can only trust Huntley so much, but my numbers still make Baltimore comfortable favorites here.
Kevin Stefanski is 41% ATS as a favorite and 41% ATS against teams over .500.
2-2 teams in Week 5 averaging 5.5 or more yards per play (like Atlanta) are an abysmal 17-35 ATS (33%). Since 2010, teams that just won by 17+ points as underdogs of a touchdown or less are hitting at just 36% ATS. That's Atlanta, too.
Get out of here with this line. It is the perfect sell-high spot on Atlanta.
The bet: Ravens +3.5 (FanDuel)
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Bills vs Rams
This is one of the best matchups of the year, and easily the best Monday Night Football game of the season.
The Bills defense is by far the weak link here — is this the breakout game for the Rams offense?
And can the smaller Rams defense hold up? They've been so good the last three games, but they are missing key guys on the defensive front. Can the Bills control the clock and ground and pound?
I lean Rams, but I don't need them at -3 or above. I'm mostly just going to enjoy an awesome game.
We know we’re getting points here with the total over 54. Buffalo will get its share of those points, and that means Josh Allen touchdowns.
An Allen Anytime TD has been a free space this season, cashing in all four games (2-2-2-1). The -105 price tag is weirdly low.
Last year, he scored a touchdown in 8 of 16 games, which matches this implied probability, but Joe Brady is using him differently near the goal line now.
This line is usually around -130 or -135, so we are getting a discount with the Bills as underdogs. I sniffed around his 2+ TD odds (+550), but instead, I'll try another First TD sprinkle.
The Bills have taken the ball first twice this season when almost everyone else defers. They should get the ball first.
I thought there was going to be more value here, but the Bills scoring first is just 2-2, and they are 1-3 in the first quarter. They aren't starting fast, and books are annoyingly pricing it in.
Still, Allen does have the game's first TD once, the first Bills TD three times, and a first-half TD in all four games.
The bet: Josh Allen Anytime TD (-105 at Hard Rock)
Escalator bet: Josh Allen First TD (+675 at Caesars)
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Week 6 Lookahead: Commanders vs 49ers
For this week's lookahead, I am just taking the team I like way better.
Washington is overpriced in the market.
Jayden Daniels is back, but the Commanders have so many other injuries too, and we still don't know how good he will be or if he will stay healthy.
Washington has already lost twice by 17 points, and I think it loses to the Giants this week.
San Francisco's wins are by 10, 20, and 22 points. The 49ers' other win by six featured a 17-point lead, including a nine-point lead with 30 seconds left before a meaningless field goal.
This is already 7.5 at some books, and I make it 9.5.
Just grab SF -7 while it's there.
Week 6 Lookahead Pick: 49ers -7
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