I'm targeting three NFL picks on Sunday of Week 15, including predictions for Commanders vs Giants, Chargers vs Chiefs, and Packers vs Broncos.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the 15th Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Week 15 Predictions & Spread Picks
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Commanders vs Giants
Jayden Daniels (elbow) will miss, but Daniels health as prohibited him from being an asset this season, and Washington’s quarterback efficiency has seen an uptick with Marcus Mariota in for Daniels:
- EPA/DB: Mariota 0.029, Daniels 0.017
- Success Rate: Mariota 50.5%, Daniels 48.4%
- YPA: Mariota 7.2, Daniels 6.9
While Mariota won’t have Zach Ertz (IR-ACL), that’s not as important against New York’s man-heavy scheme (41.9% man coverage rate, sixth-highest) that ranks seventh in DVOA vs. tight ends.
Getting back Terry McLaurin last week is far more important, as the Giants rank 25th in DVOA vs. WR1s.
McLaurin is capable of beating the Giants outside and over the top, and with Noah Brown also back on the opposite boundary, it opens things up for Deebo Samuel to be used in the slot and backfield more.
Similarly to the 3-10 Commanders, the 2-11 Giants’ are fielding the passer they’ve had the most success with. They’re 2-6 with Jaxson Dart and 0-5 with everyone else, but all that really says is that this is a matchup of two bad teams, and an easily winnable game for Washington.
At 29th in defensive DVOA, the Giants are one of the few defensive units worse than Washington’s.
The Commanders have been sneaky-good rushing team, registering the fourth-most rushing yardage per game (136.4) and sixth-best YPC (4.9), which is an edge against a New York run defense getting gashed for a league-high 5.8 YPC and 154.2 yards per game, second-most.
With Mariota, they retain similar rushing upside to what Daniels gives them. Mariota is averaging 35.7 rushing yards per game as a starter – only 4 fewer than Daniels.
His wheels will come in handy against a Giants defense that has allowed 24.2 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, second-most.
Both teams’ seasons are over, but the situational angle favors Washington. Home teams off a bye are overrated, especially in divisional games with minimal travel, barely covering at a 40% clip over the past decade.
Meanwhile, dogs off a shutout since 2003 are 48-29-2 (62.3%) ATS since 2003 for 19.5% ROI, according to our Action Labs data. Road ‘dogs off a shutout are 25-14-2 (64.1%) ATS, and ‘dogs off a shutout in November-on are 27-15-3 (64.3%) ATS.
Some cheap +2.5s have started to pop, so it's worth shopping around/waiting to see if +3 pops at -120 or better, but either way, the value is on Washington at anything above a pick’em in what amounts to a coin flip game.
Pick: Commanders +2.5
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Chargers vs Chiefs
This sets up as a classic under spot. Divisional game. Outdoors. Cold weather (17 degrees at kickoff).Major playoff implications.
And most importantly: Both offensive lines are in shambles.
The Chargers’ offensive line already lost stud left tackle Ra’Shawn Slater (IR-knee) before the season, then it lost a second elite starting tackle when Joe Alt (IR-ankle) went down in Week 9. Now they’ll also be without current starting RT Trey Pipkins (doubtful-ankle).
Losing yet another tackle is dire news considering they haven’t been able to run a functional pass offense for the last month without Alt. Here are their numbers since Week 10:
- 136.8 passing yards per game
- 5.2 YPA
- 4.5 sacks per game
- 14.5% sack rate
It doesn’t help that Justin Herbert underwent hand surgery last week, which may continue to limit him to shotgun snaps, where the offense as a whole is less efficient.
Kansas City has its own line issues at tackle. The chiefs are missing starting left tackle Josh Simmons (IR-wrist), who ranks 21st of 80 tackles in pass-blocking with a 75.5 PFF grade; starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor (out-triceps); and swing tackle Wanya Morris (IR-knee).
The Chargers zone defense suppresses big plays (6.9% explosive pass rate; third-best), and passing in general (fourth in pass-defense DVOA). The Chiefs run game is built for short yardage but lacks explosion, as Chiefs RBs average 3.82 YPC, 27th, so one way or another, the Chiefs will likely be forced into long drives even when they do score.
Andy Reid home-favorite unders are a long-term cash machine at 74-38-1 (66%) all-time and a perfect 5-0 this season.
Pick: Under 41.5
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Packers vs Broncos
Denver’s defense is excellent, but Green Bay’s pass offense ranks better in DVOA (second) than Denver’s pass D’ (eighth).
The Packers also have the edge schematically.
The Broncos play a single-high safety shell at a top-six rate (54.8%), and Jordan Love has been elite against it — first of 39 QBs in EPA per dropback and first in total EPA.
Love has also crushed man coverage (1st in EPA/DB; top-3 in total EPA and success rate), which the Broncos dial up at the league’s highest rate.
On the other side, Green Bay plays zone 78.5% of the time, third-highest, and zone-heavy defenses are what force Bo Nix into his weakest looks.
Nix is bottom-five in YPA (6.2, 35th) and success rate (42.1%, 37th) vs zone, with far better numbers vs man (6.6 YPA, 18th; 50.4% success rate, 10th).
It’s telling that the Packers remain favored on the road despite the Broncos having won 10 straight and attracting lopsided action, with the home dog getting 69% of spread bets and 81% of spread handle, according to public betting data tracked in the Action App at the time of this writing.
Per our Action Labs data, teams that won at least nine of their last 10 games straight-up but are coming off an ATS loss like the Broncos are just 30-46-6 (39%) ATS since 2004.
This matchup features a 21.3% Luck Gap favoring Green Bay as the unlucky team, as our Luck Rankings rate Denver as the NFL’s luckiest team through 14 weeks.
Per Nick Giffen, luck-based sides are 23-15 (60.5%) ATS in 2025, covering by 2.6 points per game.
I still prefer the moneyline given the Packers’ year-long kicker shenanigans, though FWIW, Packers kicker Brandon McManus has good experience kicking in Denver due to spending the first nine years of his career as a Bronco.
Pick: Packers Moneyline (-120)
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