Action Network's Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with seven NFL predictions for Week 1 of the new 2025 season.

The data-driven NFL picks for Week 1 include props for David Njoku and Zach Charbonnet, plus a number of long-shot bets for the highest scoring game, overtime and more.

NFL Predictions Week 1

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Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link="#1" firstfullname="Tampa Bay Buccaneers" firstlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/tb.png" secondfullname="Atlanta Falcons" secondlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png"][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Highest Scoring Game on Sunday (+850)
[teammatchup link="#2" firstfullname="Cincinnati Bengals" firstlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cin.png" secondfullname="Cleveland Browns" secondlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png"][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	David Njoku Most Receiving Yards — Tight Ends Only (+850)
[teammatchup link="#3" firstfullname="Carolina Panthers" firstlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png" secondfullname="Jacksonville Jaguars" secondlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png"][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Will There Be Overtime (+1300)
[teammatchup link="#4" firstfullname="Arizona Cardinals" firstlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png" secondfullname="New Orleans Saints" secondlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png"][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Lowest-Scoring Team on Sunday — Saints (+950)
[teammatchup link="#4" firstfullname="Pittsburgh Steelers" firstlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/pit.png" secondfullname="New York Jets" secondlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nyj.png"][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Lowest-Scoring Team on Sunday — Jets (+1000)
[teammatchup link="#5" firstfullname="San Francisco 49ers" firstlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png" secondfullname="Seattle Seahawks" secondlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png"][/teammatchup]	4:05 p.m.	Zach Charbonnet Anytime Touchdown (+390)
[teammatchup link="#6" firstfullname="Houston Texans" firstlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png" secondfullname="Los Angeles Rams" secondlogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png"][/teammatchup]	4:05 p.m.	Lowest Scoring Game on Sunday (+850)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

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[subheader sizedown="false" text="Highest Scoring Game on Sunday"][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick="true" picktext="Highest Scoring Game on Sunday (+850)" league="nfl" awaylogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/tb.png" awayname="Buccaneers" awayslug="tampa-bay-buccaneers" homelogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png" homename="Falcons" homeslug="atlanta-falcons" date="Sunday, Sep 7" time="1 p.m. ET" network="FOX" bookname="DraftKings" bookprimarylogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png" bookreviewslug="draftkings"][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

It’s an interesting week for trying to pick the highest-scoring game.

Of the 12 games on Sunday afternoon, six of them have totals between 45.5 and 47.5, with none above that.

My favorite game to bet on is a potential shootout in the NFC South matchup between the Falcons and the Bucs.

During my DFS research for the week, I noticed that both the Falcons and Bucs offensive lines have a considerable edge over their opposing defensive unit. That’s a good starting point for this prop, as nothing shuts down offenses like bad offensive line play.

The scenario we’re hoping for is that the Falcons get out to an early lead. Tampa Bay was one of the most flexible offenses based on game script last season, upping its pass rate north of 75% when trailing by at least a touchdown. If Atlanta scores early, Tampa will play quicker, creating a virtuous cycle of points.

The other games with a similar total are Bengals/Browns and Packers/Lions. The former isn’t likely to be competitive enough to push for a true shootout, with the Bengals one of the heaviest favorites on the slate.

The latter is outdoors at Lambeau Field, where the Packers play particularly slow. While I expect both offenses to be efficient, I’m not sure there will be enough total drives for a huge scoring total.

The game we really have to worry about is Sunday Night Football between the Ravens and Bills. However, since that game is so much later than the others, we have a solid hedge opportunity.

If Tampa/Atlanta finishes the afternoon game with the highest score, I’ll be betting the alternate over on SNF that lines up with the score of this game. That way, we're guaranteed a hit on at least one of the two bets.

Pick: Highest Scoring Game on Sunday (+850)

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[subheader sizedown="false" text="Most Receiving Yards on Sunday"][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick="true" picktext="Most Sunday Receiving Yards – Tight Ends Only: David Njoku +1200" league="nfl" awaylogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cin.png" awayname="Bengals" awayslug="cincinnati-bengals" homelogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/519602_browns.png" homename="Browns" homeslug="cleveland-browns" date="Sunday, Sep 7" time="1 p.m. ET" network="FOX" bookname="FanDuel" bookprimarylogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg" bookreviewslug="fanduel"][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

David Njoku gets Joe Flacco back for at least the start of the season.

In late 2023, when Flacco took over as the Browns' QB, Njoku went over 100 yards twice in five games, with a third game going for 91.

The Browns are heavy underdogs with very little talent in the run game until rookie Quinshon Judkins takes the field, which should result in a pass-heavy game plan.

However, it’s hard to see Flacco trusting any of the Browns receivers more than Njoku, who was one of his favorite targets in his previous Browns stint.

Plus, we can poke some holes in the tight ends with shorter odds than Njoku.

Brock Bowers is taking on a Patriots defense that typically shuts down the opponents’ best weapons. George Kittle is wildly inconsistent, especially when Christian McCaffrey is healthy, due to the wide distribution of targets for the 49ers.

Finally, we’ve got Trey McBride, who might not be needed much with the Cardinals one of the heaviest favorites on the slate.

Plus, it’s a great matchup for Njoku.

While I don’t want to lean too heavily on 2024 stats, last season the Bengals allowed the most receptions and third-most yards to tight ends in the league.

Pick: Most Sunday Receiving Yards – Tight Ends Only: David Njoku (+1200)

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[subheader sizedown="false" text="Will There Be Overtime?"][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick="true" picktext="Will There Be Overtime? – YES (+1300)" league="nfl" awaylogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png" awayname="Panthers" awayslug="carolina-panthers" homelogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png" homename="Jaguars" homeslug="jacksonville-jaguars" date="Sunday, Sep 7" time="1 p.m. ET" network="FOX" bookname="FanDuel" bookprimarylogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg" bookreviewslug="fanduel"][/gameheader]

By Nick Giffen

Normally, I like to take high-scoring games for OT since there’s more opportunity for comebacks and pushing through odd-numbered score differentials.

However, with the low spread and a moderate total, this game gets pushed over the edge by two kickers that have proven to be fantastic.

Cam Little drilled a 70-yarder in preseason, which helps in late-game situations where a team trails by a field goal. He also has never missed an extra point in his NFL career.

Rookie kicker Ryan Fitzgerald was perfect on extra points in the last two seasons of his college career, but more importantly, made 94.1% of his field goals in those two years as well, after adjusting his kicking swing. He also didn’t miss a kick in the preseason.

Five of the 16 overtime games (31.3%) last year involved one of these two teams.

Pick: Will There Be Overtime? – YES (+1300)

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[subheader sizedown="false" text="Lowest Scoring Team on Sunday"][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick="true" picktext="Lowest Scoring Team on Sunday — Saints (+950)" league="nfl" awaylogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png" awayname="Cardinals" awayslug="arizona-cardinals" homelogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png" homename="Saints" homeslug="new-orleans-saints" date="Sunday, Sep 7" time="1 p.m. ET" network="CBS" bookname="FanDuel" bookprimarylogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg" bookreviewslug="fanduel"][/gameheader]

[gameheader haspick="true" picktext="Lowest Scoring Team on Sunday — Jets (+1000)" league="nfl" awaylogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/pit.png" awayname="Steelers" awayslug="pittsburgh-steelers" homelogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/372790_jets.png" homename="Jets" homeslug="new-york-jets" date="Sunday, Sep 7" time="1 p.m. ET" network="CBS" bookname="FanDuel" bookprimarylogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg" bookreviewslug="fanduel"][/gameheader]

By Nick Giffen

The Jets were my pick to be the lowest-scoring team for the whole year, so let’s start off by taking them as the lowest-scoring team in Week 1.

They face a Steelers team that allowed the eighth-fewest points last year, including the fourth-lowest on a per-game basis if we remove the two games in which Joey Porter Jr. was injured.

Pittsburgh was a net positive defensive spender over the offseason and could be just as tough this year.

Meanwhile, the Saints have arguably the worst QB situation in the NFL with Spencer Rattler set to start. In his six starts last year, the Saints averaged just 12.3 points, including efforts of zero, eight, and 10 (twice).

Like Pittsburgh, the Cardinals were net positive spenders on defense as well, spending the fourth most during the offseason, and should be a much-improved defense from last year.

Pick: Lowest Scoring Team on Sunday — Saints (+950), Jets (+1000)

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[subheader sizedown="false" text="49ers vs Seahawks Anytime Touchdowns"][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick="true" picktext="Zach Charbonnet Anytime Touchdown" league="nfl" awaylogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png" awayname="49ers" awayslug="san-francisco-49ers" homelogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png" homename="Seahawks" homeslug="seattle-seahawks" date="Sunday, Sep 7" time="4:05 p.m. ET" network="FOX" bookname="FanDuel" bookprimarylogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg" bookreviewslug="fanduel"][/gameheader]

By Nick Giffen

San Francisco has taken some massive hits to its defensive unit, losing over $70 million in net defensive spending by AAV.

The 49ers already ranked as a bottom-10 unit by defensive DVOA against the run, and now face a Klint Kubiak-led offense that should be quite run-oriented.

I think Zach Charbonnet gets to benefit from multiple game scripts here as well, where if the Seahawks are trailing, he could get a few extra targets with the chance to take one to the house, and if they are leading, especially in a blowout win, he could get a late touchdown.

Our PRO Player Prop Projections have Charbonnet scoring a touchdown around 24% of the time, and I actually have his chances a touch higher than that.

Picks: Zach Charbonnet Anytime Touchdown (+390); Anytime Touchdown (+1700)

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[subheader sizedown="false" text="Lowest Scoring Game on Sunday"][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick="true" picktext="Lowest Scoring Game on Sunday (+850)" league="nfl" awaylogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png" awayname="Texans" awayslug="houston-texans" homelogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png" homename="Rams" homeslug="los-angeles-rams" date="Sunday, Sep 7" time="4:25 p.m. ET" network="CBS" bookname="FanDuel" bookprimarylogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg" bookreviewslug="fanduel"][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

The lowest-scoring game market follows a similar dynamic.

There’s one game (in this case, Steelers-Jets) that stands out, followed by a tightly packed group of other options. Five of the games on Sunday have a total between 44 and 42.5.

Texans/Rams might seem like an odd pick, as both teams have capable quarterback play, something that can’t be said about every game on the slate.

However, the Texans have the worst offensive line in the league, while their defensive unit should have an edge over the Rams' mediocre group.

That’s especially problematic for Los Angeles since Matthew Stafford was never a mobile QB at his best, and dealt with a back injury most of the offseason. He could be a big hit away from being forced out of the game.

I also have my doubts about the Texans' passing game. Both Tank Dell and Christian Kirk are out, meaning their No. 2 wide receiver is a rookie second-round pick. If they fall behind, catching up might prove difficult.

I don’t feel as strongly about this one as my highest scoring team prop – since Steers-Jets could be such a stinker and we have no mechanism with which to hedge – but this one is clearly the best option relative to the odds.

Pick: Lowest Scoring Game on Sunday (+850)

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