NFL Predictions Week 17: Expert’s Favorite Spread & Total Picks
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Bill Belichick.
NFL Predictions Week 17
I have run my numbers and found my favorite bets and NFL predictions for Week 17. I have identified my favorite side and total to bet on Sunday, and you can click on either pick below to be taken to that game's breakdown.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Falcons vs. Bears
The forecast calls for higher winds (up to 15-20 mph) and the potential for snow in Chicago. These are two of the most run-heavy teams in the league, and they should lean on the run even more here.
That sets up perfectly for the Bears defense that ranks third in DVOA against the run. I’ve mentioned a handful of times how much better this defense has been since they acquired Montez Sweat in Week 9. The Falcons could struggle to put up points here, and Taylor Heinicke has been dealing with an ankle injury that could limit his mobility
The Falcons run defense has also been great this season, ranking fifth in DVOA against the run, but Atlanta has struggled against QBs in the run game and is allowing a league-high 8.4 yards per carry on QB runs. That could be an issue when facing Justin Fields.
The Bears will be getting LG Teven Jenkins back this week after he missed Week 16 due to a concussion. He’s arguably their best offensive lineman and will be a huge boost in what should be a war in the trenches.
I like getting the Bears at -2.5 since the most likely outcome of this game is the Bears winning by the key number of 3.
Pick: Bears -2.5 (-115)
Patriots vs. Bills
The Bills defense has been playing much better lately and held both the Chiefs and Cowboys to fewer than 20 points in Weeks 14-15. Buffalo will also be boosted by getting some key players back on defense, with Micah Hyde and DaQuan Jones both expected to return to action. Also, after the Patriots' 26-point outburst last week against the Broncos, I'm expecting them to come back down to Earth here and struggle to put up points.
On the other side, we've seen the Bills offense become more run-heavy under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. In Weeks 1-10 they passed at the 11th-highest rate in the NFL, Since replacing Ken Dorsey, Brady's Bills offense has passed at the sixth-lowest rate. The Patriots defense ranks second in DVOA against the run, so seems like this unit should be able to slow down that run-heavy approach, especially if/when Buffalo builds a big lead.
Another couple of factors enforce this pick for me. One is the forecast, which says we could see a mix of rain and snow. The other is the referee. Alan Eck is in his first season as a referee, but the under has gone 9-4 — and it has hit in eight straight games. Eck's crew tends to call defensive holding and pass interference at the lowest rate in the league.
All of these reasons lead me to believe 40.5 is a bit too high for this game, and I’m projecting it closer to 38.5.
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