Monday Night Football in Week 5 delivers an exciting AFC matchup as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Jacksonville Jaguars under the primetime spotlight.
For my top Chiefs vs. Jaguars NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I’m highlighting Patrick Mahomes, Brenton Strange, and Kareem Hunt.
Patrick Mahomes
Less Than 23.5 Pass Completions
As we learned last night with Drake Maye, these passing completion totals are sharp as he finished with 22 completions when we needed him under 21.5. Nonetheless, we are going right back to the well here by fading Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes has single-handedly kept the Chiefs offense afloat amid injuries and inconsistency in the running game.
However, we've seen a sharp decline in his completion percentage this season — it's down over six percent from last season and five percent lower than his career mark through four games.
Mahomes should have time to throw as the Jags don't create much pressure, but that should only aid his ability to push the ball down the field.
Look for tonight to be a quality over quantity type of outing when it comes to Mahomes' completions.
Brenton Strange
Less Than 34.5 Receiving Yards
Next, we switch sides to Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange.
Strange has been a tremendous value for the Jags offense as he's second on the team in target share and has caught 83 percent of those targets.
However, he's benefited from a soft schedule, and Kansas City ranks fifth in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. No tight end has yet to surpass his total against them, and with Trevor Lawrence ranking 31st in completion percentage and 28th in yards per pass, Strange's window to exceed this total is small.
Fade him with confidence tonight.
Kareem Hunt
More Than 0.5 Touchdowns
This will be the second time I've included Hunt to reach the end zone in these articles this season, and he has already found paydirt for us against the Giants.
Backing him to score again is a great way to boost your Underdog or PrizePicks entries, as the price on it does not equate to the opportunity.
Hunt is the leading back when the Chiefs enter the red zone. They've run the ball 15 times in the red zone this season, and Hunt has seen six of the carries while Isaiah Pacheco has seen just three.
Kansas City has run the ball just 39 percent of the time in the red zone, but with Hunt likely to receive multiple high-value carries, his price is just too high.
The Jags defense has looked great against far more feeble offenses; expect the Chiefs to expose them in many ways tonight.
