The Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) wrap up Week 5 NFL action on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The game will broadcast live on ABC/ESPN.
The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Jaguars on the spread (Chiefs -3.5), with the over/under set at 45.5 points. Kansas City is a -190 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Jacksonville is +160 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Chiefs vs Jaguars predictions and Monday Night Football preview to close out Week 5.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction
- Chiefs vs Jaguars pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-110)
My Jaguars vs. Chiefs best bet is on Jacksonville to cover the spread. Find the best Monday Night Football odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
Chiefs vs Jaguars Monday Night Football Preview
Heading into Chiefs-Jaguars on Monday Night Football, I believe there are two critical questions that will likely determine which side you end up on.
Let's start with Kansas City.
The Chiefs offense has had issues for the past two seasons with a leaky offensive line, a lack of a running game, and an underwhelming set of weapons on the outside, leaving Patrick Mahomes to find ways to win close games, which he certainly can do at an elite level (11-0 in one-possession games last year).
Now, for the question: Was last week's 37-point explosion a fluke or just an indictment on the state of the Ravens defense?
While I recognize the importance of getting Xavier Worthy back, and his presence was certainly felt, my answer to that question is that it had more to do with the latter.
Baltimore's defense entered that game reeling due to injuries along its defensive line, and it only got worse as the game progressed. By the second half, based on available personnel alone, that was a bottom-five, maybe even bottom-three unit.
Before I buy all the way into the Chiefs looking anything similar to their 2022 version, I need to see it for more than one week against a real defense that isn't full of backups. At least until Rashee Rice returns, which will obviously add another layer to this unit that could make it the potent group some expected coming into the season.
But even after that points bonanza against the shell of the Ravens' defense, the Chiefs only rank 19th in Rush Success Rate, even with Mahomes averaging just under 6.0 yards per scramble.
Neither Pacheco nor Hunt, who respectively rank 43rd and 39th out of 45 backs, per PFF, are north of 4.0 yards per attempt running behind an offensive line that ranks 32nd in Run Block Win Rate. And while Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith have maintained their elite production in the interior, the other three positions remain a problem up front for a group that also ranks below average in pass blocking.
The same problems that plagued Kansas City in 2024 still persist until further notice in my eyes.
So, what about the defense that carried K.C. all the way to the Super Bowl last season? Well, the run defense has fallen off a cliff. The Chiefs rank in the bottom five in both Rush Success Rate and Rush EPA.
That's problematic against a Liam Coen offense where everything starts with the ground game.
The second question one must ask comes on the Jacksonville side: Do you believe in the Jags' 3-1 start?
My answer is undoubtedly yes.
I believed in Jacksonville coming into the season (I bet them to win the division, make the playoffs and go over their win total) in large part due to the expected coaching bump. It's hard to put into words how inept Jacksonville was in that department last year, with a poorly-schemed offense and a man-heavy defense that didn't fit their personnel.
Well, so far, so good with Coen, who has improved every offense wherever he has been, and new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile is finally running a scheme that fits his personnel.
An upgraded secondary certainly helps when playing behind a front seven that has always boasted plenty of talent with a rock-solid linebacker room (Devin Lloyd is playing at an All-Pro level), and an underrated defensive line that features a pair of elite pass rushers in Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker (whose status is worth monitoring after wrist surgery).
Look no further than Jacksonville's offensive line metrics with a group that certainly doesn't boast the most talent in the world.
The Jaguars rank No. 1 in Adjusted Sack Rate and in the top two in both Run Block Win Rate and Pass Block Win Rate, which is a direct reflection of Coen, who is putting everyone in the right places to succeed at an insanely high clip.
Now, if only Jacksonville could eliminate the drops (league-high 16) and see continued improvement from quarterback Trevor Lawrence, then this offense could take off. And it may need to, since the defense certainly won't keep up its current takeaway pace.
The Jaguars were certainly due for some positive turnover regression after a season in which they forced a league-low nine takeaways. However, forcing at least three turnovers in all four games (for a league-high 13 and league-best +9 turnover margin) is simply unsustainable.
That does concern me a bit, but Kansas City has also been quite fortunate in that department. The Chiefs have recovered all four fumbles and Mahomes has a 7:1 TD:INT ratio despite a 7:5 BTT:TWP rate.
The Chiefs have also gone 9-for-10 (without sneaks) on fourth downs, while their opponents have converted just 4-of-10.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction, Betting Analysis
Ultimately, I'm not sold on the Chiefs offense being all the way back after one big game, and I'm a believer in this Jags' team that could easily be 4-0 if not for an unbelievably unlucky collapse in Cincy.
Throw in some key matchup advantages, and the fact that I make this spread under a field goal, and I'm in on the Jags at +3 or better.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-110); bet to +3
Spread
My best bet for Monday Night Football is the Jaguars to cover the spread at +3 or better.
Moneyline
While I'm on the Jaguars, I'm shying away from the moneyline.
Over/Under
I don't have an official play for the game total, but I lean over.
