NFL Week 12 gets going with the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football.
The Bills enter TNF following a win over the Buccaneers on Sunday; Buffalo sits in second place in the AFC East standings. The Texans, meanwhile, have won two straight games and look to move above .500 for the first time this season.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out my Bills vs Texans preview, which includes my spread pick for TNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Texans CB Kamari Lassiter in the prop market as I believe there's an edge on his tackles + assists prop. Find my over/under prop bet for Lassiter below.
NFL Prop Bet: Kamari Lassiter Over/Under Prediction
On the surface, this looks like a pretty fair number for Kamari Lassiter at 5.5 tackles + assists. He’s averaging 5.8 tackles per game, but my projections flagged this as a potential eruption spot, and it’s easy to see why.
The Texans have an elite defense and rank third in average time of possession, so it’s not too surprising they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest plays per game.
However, they face a Bills offense that ranks second in time of possession. I’m projecting the Texans to face more play volume tonight with about +1.4 more completions than their season average, and, more importantly, +5.9 more rush attempts.
Lassiter is a CB who is heavily involved in run defense and actually leads all cornerbacks in run tackles — three more than the next-closest player. This matchup specifically favors him. He’s also faced one of the toughest schedules for a CB, and I project him for +5.8 more tackles on the season (+0.58 per game) if he had faced a league-average slate.
The Bills provide the second-most tackle opportunities to cornerbacks, making this by far Lassiter's best matchup of the season. The only two teams he’s faced with above-average CB tackle opportunity rates were the Rams (he had nine) and the Broncos (he had 10, and yes, if you remember, I was on his over in that game).
This is the perfect spot for him to rack up 6+ tackles. I’m projecting him closer to 6.7 with around a 65% chance he clears 5.5, and we are also getting plus odds.
I’m also going to ladder this.
Since the market moves too fast for me to grab multiple rungs, I usually need to pick the one offering the most value. I’m going with 8+ at +383, which I project closer to +180.
If you want to sprinkle on any other alts, go for it, because every single one is showing value until the market inevitably moves within minutes.
Pick: Kamari Lassiter Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists (+106)
