The Buffalo Bills (7-3) and Houston Texans (5-5) open Week 12 on Thursday Night Football on November 20. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast on Prime Video.
The Bills are favored by -6 on the spread over the Texans (Bills -6), with the over/under set at 43.5 points. Buffalo is a -290 moneyline favorite while Houston is +235 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thursday Night Football preview and Bills vs Texans prediction.
Bills vs Texans Prediction
- Bills vs Texans pick: Texans 1st Half Spread +3.5 (-115)
My Bills vs Texans best bet is on the Texans to cover the first-half spread (+3.5). Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs Texans Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -108 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | -290 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -112 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | +235 |
Bills vs Texans Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Bills Have the Ball
The Bills had a back-and-forth battle with the Buccaneers on Sunday and were actually down 26-21 halfway through the third quarter before going on a 23-7 run to comfortably win 44-32.
This has been a theme for the Bills all season. They are only +0.7 in average first-half point differential, but +5.7 in the second half. That’s why they are 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in the first half and 7-3 ATS in the second half.
Some of that is probably variance, but it also lines up with the fact that Josh Allen is one of the best improvisers we have ever seen. Once we get past the scripted portion of plays and the offense settles into making tweaks and playing off feel, he tends to turn it on.
Allen's also comfortable using his legs when needed. Add in the fact that their WR room has been chaos all year and it makes sense that Allen tends to get more comfortable as games go on.
Khalil Shakir is the Bills' clear WR1, but after that they have a rotating cast that consists of: Keon Coleman (who was benched last week for disciplinary reasons), Josh Palmer (who's dealing with injuries), and the midseason additions of Mecole Hardman (ruled out for TNF) and Gabe Davis, to go along with Curtis Samuel (ruled out), Elijah Moore and Tyrell Shavers.
It feels like Allen is throwing to a new mix of wideouts every week. One of his top weapons, Dalton Kincaid, is still out as well.
All of this makes the short week even tougher, especially since the Texans rank first in DVOA against the pass and fifth against the run.
Missing a top weapon, playing on the road, and facing a defense this good could lead to a sluggish start before the Bills eventually settle in.
The Texans defense has two key names listed as questionable. Will Anderson Jr. and Azeez Al-Shaair were both limited in practice this week, but it seems more like maintenance than genuine risk of sitting out tonight.
I will monitor their status because either absence would ding the Texans defense, and that is part of why I think they can hang around early.
When the Texans Have the Ball
C.J. Stroud remains out due to his concussion. The hope is he returns next week — for now, Davis Mills draws the start.
Mills has been serviceable filling in for Stroud with the Texans going 2-0 in his outings, but it’s important to note the schedule. He faced the Jaguars and Titans, two of the easier tests he could get.
Stroud has bounced back after a rough sophomore season and ranks 12th in EPA per dropback this year. Mills would rank 26th among 34 qualified quarterbacks. He’s your typical backup and I’d consider him about a 3-point downgrade against the spread.
This is also a matchup where the Texans should be able to lean on the run more than usual as the Bills have more of a run-funnel defense. They rank 17th in DVOA against the pass, but 30th against the run.
Texans rookie RB Woody Marks has been inefficient at times but flashed upside recently. This is a spot where he could get going.
I also think Nick Chubb fits this matchup since the Bills allow a league-high 4.27 yards after contact per attempt. That lines up with Chubb’s strength more than Marks’.
Either way, I think Houston should be able to run the ball well enough to chew clock, keep the Bills off the field, and rely on their elite defense to hang around.
Bills vs Texans Prediction, Betting Analysis
Everything points me toward the Texans covering the first-half spread.
The Bills are clearly the better team, but I think the Texans are set up to lean more on the run early and lean on their defense to keep things tight and lower scoring. The Bills routinely get off to slow starts (3-7 ATS in the first half this season) and that could be amplified on a short week on the road.
If and when the Bills start to pull away, I think it sets up better for Buffalo in the second half once Houston is forced into a trailing, pass-heavy script that plays into the strength of the Bills defense.
The key number of +3.5 is massive. Around 15% of NFL games land on exactly 3 points, and that number becomes even more valuable in a single half.
The Bills are 6-point favorites for the full game, which I’m fully aligned with. What’s surprising is that books are hanging -3.5 for Buffalo in both halves.
Usually one of those lines ends up showing more value. My initial lean was Bills -3.5 for the second half, but once I did the deeper dive, I realized the real edge was Texans +3.5 in the first half.
This is a case where the full-game line feels sharp, but splitting it into halves makes the picture clearer. Texans +3.5 is the better angle for me.
Pick: Texans 1st Half Spread +3.5 (-115)
Spread
The Bills are favored by six points in this game, which I'm aligned with. I'm passing on the full-game spread and backing the Texans to cover in the first half at +3.5.
Moneyline
I have no play for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
