NFL Prop Bets & Picks: 4 Player Props To Bet In the Late Afternoon
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Latavius Murray
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he’s 60-35 (63.2%) so far and has a 264-183-5 (59.1%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app. Find his 12 (!) prop bets for Sunday’s main Week 8 slate below.
Week 8 NFL Prop Bets
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Lions at Colts Props
Trey Burton Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (-112) [Bet now at DraftKings]
Mo Alie-Cox is set to return this week. While he doesn’t have a considerable impact on Burton, his return does welcome back the three-way tight end committee for the Colts.
What could have an even more significant effect on Burton is the return of rookie Michael Pittman. While his playing time could be limited, I view him as Philip Rivers’ potential No. 2 target in this offense going forward. The under on this prop is a great way to sell high on Burton.
Bet down to 34.5
Vikings at Packers Props
Aaron Rodgers Under 283.5 Passing Yards (-112) [Bet now at BetMGM]
I expect this number to plummet once it becomes more apparent that wind will be an issue in this game. Lambeau’s forecast calls for sustained wind in the 25 mph range, which is enough to impact the passing game significantly.
Bet down to 275.5*
*Maybe even lower once we get a more definitive wind forecast.
Patriots at Bills Props
Ryan Izzo Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
FanDuel is the only sportsbook I’ve seen offering this prop, but it’s too good not to point out.
Izzo would likely need two receptions to clear this number, which is asking a lot. It’ll be tough for him to get there considering that the Patriots let rookie tight end Dalton Keene dominate the passing game last week with 50% routes run per dropback while Izzo had a season-low 33%.
Weather should also be an issue in this game, making it even more challenging to envision Izzo clearing this number.
Bet down to 11.5
Raiders at Browns Props
Josh Jacobs Under 77.5 Rush Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Strong winds could force both teams into a more run-heavy game script, but the Raiders are unlikely to give Jacobs a massive workload considering he’s been limited due to a knee injury all week. I have him projected at 18 carries, with Jalen Richard and Devontae Booker chipping in a bit more than usual.
The Raiders have one of the best offensive lines in the league but have struggled to create running lanes for Jacobs. They rank sixth-worst in terms of adjusted line yards (per Football Outsiders) and are a big reason Jacobs has an anemic 3.4 yards per carry this season.
Bet down to 74.5
David Njoku Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-145) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Njoku has been involved in trade rumors all season. With Austin Hooper out again and the trade deadline approaching, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Browns forced the ball to Njoku.
It’s also worth noting that Odell Beckham Jr.’s season-ending injury means a handful of weekly targets are up for grabs. Last week, Njoku ran a route on 41% of dropbacks. If he were to get similar usage again this week, we would expect about 2.5 receptions from Njoku (even without my trade value hypothesis).
Bet up to 17.5
Jets at Chiefs Props
Denzel Mims Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-112) [Bet now at DraftKings]
Continuing my trend of investing in talented rookie wide receivers before they breakout — see: CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson and Chase Claypool from past weeks — we have a new opportunity with Mims.
Mims was considered a first-round talent but fell to Round 2 simply because the 2020 WR class was loaded. He was able to make his debut last week and ran a route on 80% of dropbacks — a clear sign that the Jets view him as near 100% health and he could see 90% of the snaps this week. The Jets are 20-point underdogs (find real-time odds here), so we should expect plenty of garbage time for Mims to thrive in.
Bet up to 46.5
Rams at Dolphins Props
Tua Tagovailoa Under 18.5 Rush Yards (-115) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Tua has the talent to rush for yardage when he needs to and is more than capable of clearing this number. However, he’s more of a pocket passer than people likely realize. I would expect him to be a bit cautious in his first career start, given he’s coming back from a significant hip injury.
Bet down to 15.5
Steelers at Ravens Props
Miles Boykin Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115) [Bet now at BetMGM]
The Ravens have been unable to have a wide receiver step up to become a true No. 2 WR this season. Boykin opened the season with that role, but has seen his playing time drop in four straight games before collapsing to just 30% routes run per dropback in Week 6.
I’m projecting him to bounce back closer to 45-50% routes per drop back, which could be a bit aggressive, and I am still showing the under here. Rookie Devin Duvernay appears to have leapfrogged Boykin, and it’s possible Dez Bryant could eventually pass him up as well.
Bet down to 18.5
Chargers at Broncos Props
Noah Fant Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Fant ended up only missing one game after suffering what appeared to be a significant ankle injury. Despite posting a 3/38/0 game in his return, he was seen hobbling after every catch and had to take himself out of the game at times. He is playing at less than 100%.
Meanwhile, rookie tight end Albert Okwuegbunam has looked great in his first two games. Betting on Fant’s under is also a backdoor way of betting Albert O’s over (considering no book is willing to offer a prop on him). Jake Butt’s potential return could also put a damper on Fant’s usage.
Bet down to 36.5
Saints at Bears Props
Latavius Murray Over 31.5 Rush Yards (-112) [Bet now at BetMGM]
The Saints are going to be without Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders again. Windy conditions are also expected for this game, which should force the Saints to have a very conservative game plan. That could entail using Alvin Kamara heavily in the passing game and giving Murray 10-12 carries.
Bet up to 35.5
Jared Cook Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (-112) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Cook has a wide range of outcomes. I would bet on him having more of a floor game this week instead of a ceiling one.
Given the windy conditions, Brees is less likely to take deep shots at Cook. Additionally, rookie TE Adam Trautman ate into Cook’s usage last week, which is why he saw his routes run per dropback dip to 55% (an 8% difference from his per-game average).
Bet down to 37.5
49ers at Seahawks Props
George Kittle Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-121) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Kittle should carve up a Seattle defense that plays a ton of zone. The return of Jamal Adams does put a damper on Kittle’s outlook, but his floor in this matchup is too good to pass up at this number.
Bet up to 70.5