NFL Props To Bet Based On Week 18 Incentives: Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor, Rob Gronkowski, More Expert Picks
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Cooper Kupp.
For the first time ever, Week 18 of the NFL season is here, and with it brings the usual question that surrounds the regular-season finale: Who is playing for what?
Even with teams eliminated from playoff contention or already with a berth secured, individual players still can have a lot to play for, be it eclipsing certain milestone statistics or trying to cash in on a lucrative bonus tied to hitting a certain number.
Our NFL expert Chris Raybon has done the hard work and found nine different players who have varying incentives to play well in Week 18. Find his picks below.
NFL Props To Bet
Cooper Kupp Over 118.5 Rec Yards
The 49ers beat the Rams earlier this season, despite committing nine penalties to the Rams’ five, and with Kupp going off for 122 yards on 11 catches.
Kupp is 136 yards away from Calvin Johnson’s all-time single-season receiving mark. According to Football Outsiders, San Francisco’s defense allows the most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers (87.1).
Everything is lining up for the over in his yardage prop to cash.
Bet to: 135.5
Jonathan Taylor Over 175.5 Rush Yards
With Taylor just 266 yards short of 2,000 on the season, it’s also worth taking a nibble on his alt-rushing yardage market at the highest number you can find; I found over 175.5 at +598.
Bet to: +598 (or highest rushing yardage prop you can find)
Marvin Jones Jr. Over 3.5 Rec
Jones is sitting at 66 catches and needs four receptions for $500,000. His reception prop at most books is four, which is fine, but I found a 3.5 in the alt market, which is obviously a better bet.
Bet to: 4.0
Rob Gronkowski Over 66.5 Rec Yards
There’s a major prop angle in this game, as Gronk can make $500,000 with seven more catches, another $500,000 with 85 more yards, and another $500,000 with three more TDs.
I haven’t seen a reception prop for him as of writing, but his yardage prop is still more than 15 yards short of 85 — smash it.
I may also look to bet on Gronk in the alt-TD market, so be sure to follow me in the app.
Bet to: 84.5
Darnell Mooney Over 54.5 Rec Yards
Mooney needs 71 yards to record his first ever 1,000-yard season. Mooney has finished over his 54.5-yard prop in each of the past three games and five of the past seven, and I fully expect Andy Dalton to get Mooney to 1K with the Bears having nothing else to play for.
Bet to: 70.5
Mark Andrews Over 68.5 Rec Yards
The Steelers have gotten good news as the week has progressed, with cornerback Joe Haden coming off the COVID list while the Ravens ruled out Lamar Jackson.
Even with Jackson out, it’s worth noting that Andrews’ receiving yardage prop is way too low. Andrews hasn’t posted fewer than 89 yards since Jackson went down and is averaging 116.3 over that span. He is also chasing the single-season yardage mark for TEs, which he could break with 141 yards on Sunday.
Bet to: 88.5
Kyle Pitts Over 58.5 Rec Yards
Pitts can break Mike Ditka’s rookie tight end receiving yardage mark with 59 yards, so I would also look to bet the over on his yardage prop. Pitts’ prop is around 60-61 and he posted 62 yards in the first meeting, but I bet an alt market at 58.5 just to be safe.
Bet to: 61.5
A.J. Green Over 54.5 Rec Yards
Green can unlock a $250,000 incentive with 75 yards and another $250,000 with 10 catches. The former is doable, especially since he is facing a Seahawks defense that lives in zone, playing it at the NFL’s second-highest rate. Green leads all Cardinals pass catchers with 2.32 yards per route run versus zone coverage (min. 5 targets). There’s a nice 20-yard cushion between the incentive and his yardage prop.
Bet to: 74.5
D.K. Metcalf Over 56.5 Rec Yards
Metcalf’s yardage prop is also in play here, as he is 91 yards short of his second consecutive 1,000-yard season. Despite a strong pass defense, the Cardinals rank just 22nd in DVOA on passes to the offensive left, which is where Metcalf sees the majority of his targets.
Bet to: 90.5