NFL Props

Seattle's offense was awesome early in the season but faded hard from Week 11 through the end of the regular season. That was the first matchup against the Rams, when L.A. was the first opponent to make a point of playing Seattle for its early passing tendencies out of heavy instead of matching heavy bodies like-for-like, giving Seattle big bodies to pass against. Before Week 11, the Seahawks led the league in Passing DVOA. From Week 11 onward, they plummeted all the way to 25th, bottom quarter of the league. The rushing attack improved from 21st to 6th in that same stretch, but defenses were fine with that! The entire point was to limit Seattle's downfield passing and bait the run. Of course, Seattle's offense was suddenly much better again in two playoff games. Did the Seahawks counter the counter during their bye week and find some answers? That's hard to tell in a small sample, but it also came against two reeling defenses. If you're going to build a script for a Seahawks loss, there's little question you start with Sam Darnold. Maybe Darnold just isn't good enough in the biggest game of his life. Maybe the ghosts return. For all its dominance, Seattle actually had the second-most giveaways in the regular season with 28, including nine games — over half of them — with multiple turnovers. The Seahawks have no turnovers in the last three games — two playoff matchups and one for the 1-seed. Did Seattle solve its problem, or is that just luck? Either way, it's hard to see Seattle losing if the Seahawks don't turn it over. But that volatility makes Seattle unpredictable. New England's defense is also tough to figure out. Suddenly, the Patriots look almost as good defensively in the playoffs as the Seahawks. After cratering against the run down the stretch of the regular season, they've rebounded to an elite 2.4 yards per carry against the run in the playoffs. The pass defense also started bottom five by DVOA the first half of the season but has gotten progressively better since. So what do we make of this sudden small-sample leap to elite defense? Milton Williams is healthy and a big boost, but is he that much of a difference-maker? Christian Gonzalez was hurt early, but has he really taken that much of a leap? Is defensive play caller Zak Kuhr just on that much of a heater? Again, there are reasons to doubt. Weighted DVOA reflects the ginormous leap New England's defense has taken the last couple months, but it may be lying to us. In its last six games, New England has faced four backup quarterbacks, three of them third stringers. This elite playoff stretch has also included two bad weather games as well as two against horrendous offensive lines. The Patriots faced only two quarterbacks the entire regular season that rank in the consensus top half of the league. This unit just hasn't been tested much, and though Seattle's offense is hardly elite, it may well be New England's biggest defensive test all season. Only Buffalo ranks higher by Offensive DVOA, and the Patriots gave up 55 points in those two games. There's been a lot of hype for Williams and Christian Barmore on the interior, along with Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis at corner, but the second name in each of those duos has a serious weakness. Barmore is great as a pass rusher but ranks 133rd of 134 interior defenders against the run at PFF. Davis gambles too often and gets beat in man coverage; he's also susceptible to pass-interference calls. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will relish every opportunity he gets against Davis — we'll get back to that below — and New England's defense also ranks dead last in red zone DVOA on the season. New England's defense has real weak points, but it does have some real matchup advantages. The run defense looks great, and Seattle has the lowest neutral pass rate in the NFL. New England plays a heap of light box defense and won't get baited into heavy coverage but can limit all those Seahawks runs anyway and slow down the game. That's a good script for the underdog. The Seahawks are heavily reliant on their play-action passing, with Darnold ranked 1st in play-action passing by DVOA, but the Patriots have ranked near the top of the league defending play action all season. New England's defensive scheme is a pretty good matchup for Klint Kubiak's offense on paper, with one exception. The Patriots play the 9th most man coverage, and Darnold has been far better against man than zone this season; Smith-Njigba also torches man coverage. Seattle's offensive line could be its weak link, too, particularly on the interior. RG Anthony Bradford and perhaps C Jalen Sundell could be an issue on the interior against the Patriots' star defensive linemen. The Seahawks have enough firepower to find some answers offensively, but it's imperative they stay on the front foot. Seattle leads the league in first-down passing by DVOA but drops all the way to 25th on third down. When Darnold gets put into passing downs, his play falls off dramatically and has for his entire career. When the defense has to play both run and pass, he prospers. New England's defense has been exactly the opposite this season. The Patriots are stout on the money downs but leaky on early downs, below average in many metrics. If the Patriots can get Seattle to third-and-long, they can win. But will Seattle even get there? The Seahawks offense has been far better early in each half, top six in DVOA in the first and third quarters but below average in the second and fourth. That's an offense that's at its best on Kubiak's script, with a QB following a well-prepared gameplan. That's held true in these last three Seattle games. Seattle had a touchdown and a field goal on its first two drives against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. It had a field goal and a touchdown on its first two drives against the 49ers in the Divisional Round (not counting the opening kickoff return TD), and it had a touchdown and a 66-play drive that ended on a turnover on downs against the Niners in the regular season finale. Seattle's offense has been at its best early in these games — and that could be trouble for a Patriots defense that's been at its worst in the first quarter. New England ranks 30th in first quarter DVOA defensively, and that's played out in the playoffs, too. The Chargers got to the 2- and 5-yard line on their first three drives. They only got three points out of that, but those were their only points of the game. The Texans got to the 1-yard line on their second drive, settling for a field goal, then scored their only touchdown four plays into the second quarter. The Broncos scored a touchdown on their second drive, then turned it over on downs in the red zone the next possession. In all three playoff games, New England's defense has been at its most vulnerable early. The Patriots have only allowed 26 points all postseason — 20 of them came on those early drives. It's probably not worth much considering all the players and coaches are different, but it could also be worth noting that New England has scored just three points total in nine Super Bowl first quarters this century. If you want to bet Seattle 1Q -0.5 at +105 (DraftKings), that makes sense. I like Seattle early. But first-quarter bets can be finicky since there's no urgency at the end of the quarter and since we don't know who gets the ball first. My favorite way to invest in the Seahawks is Seattle to score first and win the game at +125 (Circa). If Seattle's offense is bad early or falls behind, that's not a script I'm going to feel great about anyway with Darnold. I want this team playing on its front foot, like it has so much of the season. Seattle is a perfect 11-0 when scoring first this season, the only unbeaten team in the league, and the Seahawks have scored first in five straight games. If they make it six, this thing could be a wrap early.

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