NFL Props

TreVeyon Henderson over 0.5 receptions (-140 at BetMGM, Caesars, Hard Rock) Henderson got phased out of the offense for the most part in the conference championship game, but a lot of that has to do with the snow and with the Patriots playing with the lead, with Vrabel trusting Rhamondre Stevenson not to fumble in the conditions. With a week off to prepare, in ideal conditions, and the Patriots more likely to trail than not, I can see Henderson drifting back toward his usage in the first two rounds of the playoffs which, while still not a ton, was 17 routes in two games, being targeted three times. This is a spot where his target rate should theoretically go up, as the Seahawks play a lot of zone coverage (5th most in the NFL), and lean toward two-high safety looks. Against zone, Henderson has been targeted on 21% of his routes, compared to just 6% of routes against man coverage. And against two-high safety looks, Henderson's target rate is 22% compared to 15% against single high looks. We also have to factor in that Seattle is a high pressure defense, and while everyone's target per route goes down under pressure (because of sacks, throwaways, and QB scrambles), Henderson's drops less than the average receiver, with the third-lowest dip when Maye is under pressure of 9 regular Patriot pass catchers. With two weeks to scheme things up, I'd look for a designed play to help bust this stingy Seahawks zone defense that allows the most targets per game in the league to RBs. I'd play this to -165, meaning all current available prices at the time I dropped the pick in the Action App are playable.

Rhamondre has certainly been on fire over the last four games heading into the Super Bowl, but I think we could see a dip in both his volume and efficiency in the big game. First, let’s talk about volume. The Patriots have won six straight games and went 14–3 in the regular season, and as a result, they’ve played with the lead 62% of the time this season. That’s allowed them to lean on the run at a higher rate due to game script. However, they still ranked 5th in pass rate over expected, so if they ever do get into a trailing script, we could see their designed rush attempt volume to RBs specifically plummet. We also saw TreVeyon Henderson essentially phased out last week, with Rhamondre racking up 25 carries. A lot of that shift likely had to do with the weather and the massive amount of snow we saw in the second half, as the Pats were simply trying to run out the clock and lean on their defense to keep Jarrett Stidham from beating them. As rare 4.5-point underdogs here, I’m projecting the Pats to play with the lead at a 30% lower rate than usual, which is very high for this late in the season. That means I’m projecting their overall dropback rate to go up and their designed rush attempts to go down, with Henderson mixing in closer to his typical role. That leaves Rhamondre projected closer to 13–13.5 rush attempts, making his Under 14.5 rush attempts (current line) very much in play. The reason I’d rather fade his yardage, though, is that I also expect a dip in efficiency. Rhamondre has been great this year, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but the Pats have had by far the easiest schedule this season. The Seahawks defense ranks 1st in DVOA and will be his toughest matchup to date. Stevenson has led the league with a ridiculous 6.9 yards per carry against stacked boxes. However, Seattle uses a stacked box at the 2nd lowest rate in the league and instead tends to use seven defenders in the box at one of the highest rates. When facing seven defenders in the box, Rhamondre’s efficiency plummets, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which ranks 45th out of 48 qualified RBs. He also runs inside the tackles at the 4th highest rate, essentially straight into the teeth of the defense, which will make it tougher for him to rack up explosive runs. If he struggles early, we could also see Henderson mix in more, which would further lower Rhamondre’s volume. I’m projecting him closer to 49.5 rushing yards, with around a 60% chance to stay under 56.5.

Plucking off this INT line at -115 since its -140 everywhere else.