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Freedman’s NFL Week 14 Trends & Early Bets: Back Aaron Rodgers & Josh Allen

Freedman’s NFL Week 14 Trends & Early Bets: Back Aaron Rodgers & Josh Allen article feature image

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.

We have just one month left of the 2020 NFL regular season, and no games have been canceled yet. We might get through this.

Let’s take a look at some trends for the early Week 14 spreads.

Although I’m not a trends bettor, I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games. Using our Bet Labs database, I have uncovered some intriguing NFL trends for two games this week.

All lines are from our NFL Odds page.

Early Week 14 NFL Picks

Click on a pick to skip to that analysis.

Pick Bet Now
Cardinals -3 vs. Giants FanDuel
Jets +13.5 vs. Seahawks DraftKings
Packers -7.5 vs. Lions DraftKings
Washington Football Team +5.5 vs. 49ers FanDuel
Bills +2.5 vs. Steelers FanDuel

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at New York Giants

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: CBS

Note: I am writing this before Week 13 Sunday Night Football. Results of that game might impact the historical trend data below.

Going back to 2004 (the beginning of our BetLabs database), bettors have been able to beat the vig and make a small return on investment (ROI) by fading home-field advantage against the spread (ATS).

  • Road: 2,243-2,125-129 ATS | 0.4% ROI
  • Home: 2,125-2,243-129 ATS | -4.7% ROI

In general, road teams tend to be sharp, and that means this week I’m betting against the Giants, who have been one of the league’s worst home teams since moving to MetLife Stadium in 2010.

At MetLife, road teams are an A-graded 49-34-2 ATS (15.3% ROI) against the Giants.

On top of that, the Cardinals are 8-4-2 ATS (26% ROI) on the road under head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

  • Action: Cardinals -3 (-110) at FanDuel
  • Limit: -5.5 (-110)

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New York Jets (+13.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: CBS

Note: I am writing this before Week 13 Sunday Night Football. Results of that game might impact the historical trend data below.

The Jets are yet to win a game, and in Week 13, they lost in hilarious fashion by allowing a long touchdown in the final seconds.

No normal person would want to bet on them most weeks, and that’s especially true this week against the Seahawks.

But the Jets are road dogs off a loss, and that means I want to invest in them.

My theory: Square bettors tend to avoid visitors, underdogs and teams that just lost, which means that in a market flush with new and unsophisticated money, we should see road underdogs coming off a loss provide excessive value.

And that is what we’ve seen since 2019, when many inexperienced bettors first entered the market with the widespread legalization of sports betting. Since last year, road dogs off a loss are an A-graded 78-53-5 ATS (14.7% ROI).

Since returning from their Week 6 bye, the Seahawks are 2-5 ATS.

  • Action: Jets +13.5 (-110) at DraftKings
  • Limit: +13 (-110)

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) at Detroit Lions

Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: FOX

I’m a pretty simple person: I like to bet on quarterbacks who win, and that’s what Aaron Rodgers is. A discount double-check winner.

For his career, he’s 117-82-5 ATS (15% ROI).

And he has been especially dominant against the NFC North. When facing divisional opponents, Rodgers is 45-26 ATS (24.1% ROI).

Although he was fired just a couple of weeks ago, former Lions head coach Matt Patricia’s ghost will haunt the organization for some time. I doubt the Lions we see this week will differ much from the team we’ve seen since Patricia replaced Jim Caldwell in 2018.

In the post-Caldwell era, the NFC North is 9-6-1 ATS (17.3% ROI) against the Lions.

  • Action: Packers -7.5 (-110) at DraftKings
  • Limit: -9.5 (-110)

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Washington Football Team (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: FOX

Note: I am writing this before the Washington Football Team and 49ers play in the Monday Night Football doubleheaders.

I have all the respect in the world for 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, but through three-plus years, he has displayed a hilariously bad Jason Garrett-level of incompetence as a home favorite.

Road underdogs are 11-3-1 ATS (48.3% ROI) against Shanahan’s 49ers.

And I like the Footballers probably more than I should. Quarterback Alex Smith is a competent veteran, and on defense, they rank Nos. 3 & 5 with 77.5 coverage and 78.7 pass-rush grades, per Pro Football Focus.

I think Washington even has a real shot to get the outright win. On the moneyline, road dogs against Shanahan are 7-8 (61.8% ROI).

  • Action: Football Team +5.5 (-110) at FanDuel
  • Limit: +4.5 (-110)

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: NBC

Note: I am writing this before the Bills and Steelers play in the Monday Night Football doubleheaders.

Whenever quarterback Josh Allen is an underdog, I almost always bet on him. It’s one of my few annoying habits, like forgetting to shower.

With his playing style, Allen can keep any game close.

As a dog, Allen is 12-6-2 ATS (26.3% ROI).

As for the unfortunate Steelers, they will be playing their third game in 12 days.

  • Action: Bills +2.5 (-110) at FanDuel
  • Limit: +1 (-110)

Matthew Freedman is 847-663-30 (56.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

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