Welcome back, football! The Action Network primer is here for another NFL season, and it's time to get into the action with 16 Week 1 games.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 1 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Monday, Aug. 26, at 11 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Chalk City
Favorites Historic 2024 Run
We are just coming off a regular season to remember for favorites. The best ATS season from a profit/ROI POV since 2017. Overall, favorites ended 2024 195-77 SU (71.7%), the 3rd-best regular season since 1980. Favorites on the moneyline finished the regular season with a positive ROI in consecutive seasons for the first time since at least 2003. Not only that, but road favorites ended up finishing the regular season an absurd 80-28 SU.
Big Expectations
Up and Comers
For the Patriots and Commanders, 2025 has big expectations.
New England had a win total of 4.5 and won 4 games last year. This year, their win total is up to 8.5.
The Commanders entered last year at 150-1 to win it all and they are now 18-1 and a contender.
📲 Tap Here For More on Patriots ⤵️
Since 2019, nine teams have seen their win total increase 4+ wins from their total actual wins the year before, including the Patriots and 49ers this year, those teams are just 1-6 to their win total over that season. Since 2002, only six teams, including the 2024-25 Patriots and Broncos, have seen their actual win total increase by 4+ wins year-to-year:
2022-23 Falcons win total moved from 4.5 to 8.5 and they won 7 games
2022-23 Jets win total moved from 5.5 to 9.5 and they won 7 games
2017-18 Rams win total moved from 6 to 10 and they won 13 games
2008-09 Falcons win total moved from 4.5 to 8.5 and they won 9 games
Patriots are the first team since division realignment in 2002 to see their win total jump 4+ games year-to-year from BOTH their previous win total AND previous games won.
📲 Tap Here For More on Commanders ⤵️
Washington now join an exclusive list, with a few more members the last few years. Each of the last 4 years we’ve had a “hype team” – a team who went from 150-1 or longer to 20-1 or shorter in Super Bowl odds year-to-year:
2024 to 2025 WAS 150-1 to 18-1
2023 to 2024 HOU 200-1 to 15-1 — Won Wildcard game (10-7 SU SU, 7-10 ATS)
2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200) — Miss playoffs (7-10 SU, 6-10-1 ATS)
2021 to 2022 CIN 150-1 to 20-1 (+13,000) – Won Wildcard & Divisional game (12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS)
Bo Knows
Nix's Cover Rate
In Bo Nix’s early career as a starter, he has been a cover machine, going 12-5 ATS last year. In fact, Nix is only the fourth rookie QB to cover 11-plus games in a season in the Wild Card era since 1990, joining 2012 Russell Wilson, 2012 Andrew Luck, and 2008 Joe Flacco – with Flacco the only QB to cover 12+ games with Bo.
Nix has closed as a favorite eight times in his 17 career starts, and he is 8-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 14 points per game. Nix was the first rookie QB to start even 6-0 SU/ATS as a favorite all in their rookie year in the Super Bowl era.
Slow Start
Burrow, Bengals Early Struggles
In Joe Burrow’s NFL career, he is 46-29-1 ATS (61%), but Burrow has had his ATS struggles early in the season. He’s 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in his first two games of the year, and 42-23-1 SU and 43-22-1 ATS in game 3 or later. In the last 20 years, only 2 other QBs have one win or fewer and 8 losses or more within the first two games of the regular season: Josh McCown (0-8 SU) and Kerry Collins (1-8 SU).
Whether it's Joe Burrow, the Bengals or Zac Taylor, they seem to start slow. Taylor with Burrow and Andy Dalton as his QBs is 7-14-1 SU in September, including 5-7 SU as a favorite and 4-6 SU at home.
Road Beginnings
First Starts On Road
Cam Ward and JJ McCarthy will begin their NFL careers in Week 1 having to play on the road against non-first year QBs, though both 2nd year QBs. Since the NFL merger in 1970, rookie QBs having to play on the road in Week 1 are 8-21 SU and 13-14-2 ATS, losing those games SU by an average of 5.9 PPG. The rookie QB's team averages about 17.9 PPG scored. The last win SU came from Sam Darnold back in 2018.
There have been 28 No. 1 pick QBs since the merger in 1970. In their 1st start, they are 5-22-1 SU, 8-20 ATS with Caleb Williams breaking the drought of QBs winning last year, with the last one before Caleb being David Carr in 2002.
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Quite The Role
Jaguars, Cardinals Favored Early
The Jaguars open the season as home favorites vs. the Panthers behind QB Trevor Lawrence.
The Cardinals open the season as road favorites vs. the Saints behind QB Kyler Murray.
Overall, Kyler is 15-17 SU as a favorite and Lawrence is 10-11 SU as a favorite. They are 2 of 6 QBs under .500 SU as a favorite over the last 20 years with min. 10 starts as a favorite – most starts of those listed QBs…
32 – Kyler Murray 15-17 SU
21 – Trevor Lawrence 10-11 SU
15 – Robert Griffin III 7-8 SU
15 – Marc Bulger 7-8 SU
Different Start
Chiefs New Beginnings
Chiefs lost the Super Bowl last year by 18 pts, trailing 34-0 in the game at one point. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), we’ve seen 11 other teams lose by 14+ pts in the Super Bowl the year prior, and they went 4-7 SU and 2-9 ATS in Week 1 of the next season – they have lost seven consecutive games ATS in Week 1, with the last team to cover being the 1997 Patriots beating the Chargers at home.
When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat. KC is 64-7 SU (90%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 29-0 SU in the last three seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.
Strength vs. Strength
NFC North Showdown
Dan Campbell is 11-3 ATS in September, going above .500 ATS in all four seasons. Who is the most profitable QB against the spread in Week 1 since 2003? The answer: Jared Goff, who is 8-0 ATS in his opener (4-0 SU/ATS with the Rams and 2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS with the Lions).
No head coach is better covering early than Matt LaFleur. Packers are 15-3 ATS within their first 3 games of the season since 2019, best of any team in the NFL – that mark includes 7-0 ATS at home in Lambeau Field.
Way South
NFC South Struggles
The Falcons-Panthers-Saints-Bucs have a combined win total of 29 == fewest for any division this year. No division has entered the regular season with a combined win total of below 30 since the 2021 AFC South.
Lowest Combined Division Win Totals Last Decade
2025 NFC South – 29
2021 AFC South – 29
2018 AFC East – 29
2017 AFC East – 29.5
Beginning To Climb
Preseason Connection
The 2017 Browns and 2008 Lions famously both went 4-0 SU in the preseason before going 0-16 SU in the regular season. The 2007 Patriots were 2-2 SU in the preseason and went 16-0 SU in the regular season. It's not perfect, but here are some preseason trends looking at the regular season.
- 24 of the last 30 Super Bowl winners have had a .500 or better record in the preseason.
- 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners have been .500 ATS or better in the preseason
- Only one Super Bowl participant in the last 20 years went undefeated ATS in preseason (’13 Seahawks).
- Only 8 of 40 Super Bowl participants in the last 20 years covered 3+ games in the preseason.
Here is a look at how undefeated and defeated preseason teams have performed in the regular season over the last 20 years:
Inside The Lab
Week 1 Bet Labs Trends
Here are a few notes for Week 1, for all other systems scroll to the lab at the bottom of the article:
- Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 23-7 ATS since 2010, including 10-2 ATS since 2018 and 18-4 ATS since 2012.
- Underdogs of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS in Week 1 since 2006 (19 seasons) – they are under .500 ATS in just 1 of those 19 seasons.
- 1 to 6.5 point underdogs are 132-90-6 ATS (60%) since 2016 – .500 ATS or better every single year the last 9 years.
- Divisional dogs in Week 1 are 40-41-2 SU, +$2,280 on a $100 bet (+28% ROI) since 2010.
For more Bet Labs systems all listed below click here.
Every NFL Game For Week 1
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➤Dak Prescott gets his first crack at the NFC East this season in Week 1, facing the Eagles, and then in Week 2, facing the Giants.
In his NFL career as a starter, Dak has made 129 total starts, he has only closed +7 or higher five times and Dallas is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in those games, with the last such game coming in Week 1 of 2019 vs. Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Dak Prescott Biggest Underdog vs. NFC East
+7.5 at Giants, 2018 (W, 36-35)
+7.5 at Eagles, 2018 (W, 27-20)
+7 at Eagles, 2025
+6.5 at Eagles, 2016 (L, 27-13)
➤Prescott has excelled in his career against NFC East foes. He is 29-12 ATS vs. the NFC East, covering the spread by almost 6.7 PPG. Since 2003, here are the most profitable QBs ATS vs. Division Foes:
Aaron Rodgers: 57-35 ATS
Dak Prescott: 29-12 ATS
Ben Roethlisberger: 54-38-3 ATS
Tom Brady: 63-47-5 ATS
➤We’ve heard a lot of stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 17-0 SU and 14-3 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 points or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU. Overall, Sirianni is 27-2 SU and 19-8-2 ATS when leading by 7+ as a home favorite.
➤Jalen Hurts is tough to beat at home. He is 26-3 SU at home as a favorite in his career. When he faces a team above .500 SU at home in Philly, he is 17-0 SU as favorite and 1-4 SU as an underdog. As a favorite of 7 pts or less or an underdog at home, Hurts is 18-6 ATS in his career.
➤The Eagles open up against the Cowboys to kick off the 2025 season. The Eagles are 7-point favorites right now. Since 2015, the favorite is only 3-7 ATS in the opening game of the season, with the Chiefs barely hanging on vs. the Ravens last year.
➤Eagles are coming off a Super Bowl victory over the Chiefs … Week 1 Thursday night opener: Home teams have been 13-8-3 ATS since 2000.
Beginning in 2004, the reigning Super Bowl champions have kicked off the NFL regular season by hosting 20 weekday primetime games. In those games, they're 11-7-2 ATS. The Super Bowl champs are 15-9-1 ATS in Week 1 of the following season since 2000.
➤In the 54 games the Eagles have played with AJ Brown on the field, Philadelphia is 43-11 SU and 29-23-2 ATS, including 16-1 SU last season.
➤Since 2000, the loser of the Super Bowl has had a tough time getting over its hangover in Week 1 of the following season. Super Bowl losers are 11-14 SU, 6-19 ATS. Looking lately, it’s seen a bit of a turn. Since 2017, Super Bowl losers are 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS in Week 1.
Chiefs lost the Super Bowl last year by 18 pts, trailing 34-0 in the game at one point. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), we’ve seen 11 other teams lose by 14+ pts in the Super Bowl the year prior, and they went 4-7 SU and 2-9 ATS in Week 1 of the next season – they have lost seven consecutive games ATS in Week 1, with the last team to cover being the 1997 Patriots beating the Chargers at home.
➤The comeback and the close game has been a staple in Kansas City. Chiefs have won a record 17 consecutive one-score games entering the 2025 season (9-7-1 ATS in those games). Their last one-score loss came on Christmas of 2023 against the Raiders.
Chiefs have now lost three consecutive games outright when trailing by 7+ points at any point in the game – you have to go all the way back to 2017 to find the last time KC lost four straight games in this trailing spot. Since start of 2018, Chiefs are 46-24 SU (65.7%) when trailing by 7+ points at any point in the game – by far best mark in the NFL – the 2nd-best? Bills at 45.2%.
➤When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat. KC is 64-7 SU (90%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 29-0 SU in the last three seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.
➤Chiefs offense had some issues last year. They were tied for 22nd in yards per play, the Chiefs lowest mark since 2012 behind Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn. Over the last three seasons, KC’s yards per play mark shows their offensive decline recently.
2024: 5.11 (T-22nd)
2023: 5.53 (9th)
2022: 6.43 (1st)
➤Justin Herbert has made 81 career starts in the NFL. He is 41-40 SU, 44-35-2 ATS. When his defense allows 24 pts or fewer, he is 33-12 SU, 33-10-2 ATS. When his defense allows more than 24 pts, he is 13-29 SU, 15-27 ATS.
➤Herbert has been great on the road, going 25-16 ATS in his career away from home, including 10-5 ATS in September and October. Herbert has covered 8 of his last 11 road games dating back to 2023.
➤Herbert has been dangerous as an underdog. When his team closes above a FG dog (+3.5 or more), he is 11-2-1 ATS in his career, including 13-1 in a 6-pt teaser and at +3 or higher, he is still 11-6-1 ATS career.
➤Patrick Mahomes is 19-4 SU and 13-9-1 ATS in September – 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in openers (over is 6-1 in Mahomes Week 1 openers, going over by 6.3 PPG). As Chiefs head coach, Andy Reid is 8-4 ATS and 10-2 SU in season openers.
Reid is 50-23 SU in September since 2003, including 22-4 SU since 2017-18. His 50-23 record has profited a $100 moneyline bettor $1,186 — the most of any coach in the Bet Labs database.
➤Mahomes is only 2-5-1 ATS vs. Justin Herbert in his career, making Justin his least profitable opposing QB ATS.
➤Since the start of 2023, the second-half under in Chiefs games is 29-12 (71%), going under the total in that 2H by 4.2 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
➤Over the last two seasons, the Chargers are 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in games decided by 3 pts or less. Every other team in the NFL has at least two wins in games decided by 3 pts or less in this span.
➤In his first season back in the NFL, Jim Harbaugh went 12-5-1 ATS. In his NFL career as a head coach, Harbaugh is 54-32-4 ATS (63%), going above .500 ATS in 4 of his 5 seasons.
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➤In the last 13 years (2013-25), the Jets have entered the regular season with 100-1 or higher odds to win it all in 8 of those seasons, including this year. The Jets playoff drought is up to 14 years, tied with the Sabres in the NHL for the longest active playoff drought. During that 14-yr drought, the Jets have been favored to make the playoffs just three times (2011, 2023, 2024). Last time Jets won in the playoffs, they beat Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in consecutive games.
➤Pittsburgh has gone over their preseason win total in five straight seasons, the longest active streak in the NFL. Under Tomlin, they are 13-5 to their win total over. With a win total under 9, Pittsburgh is 6-0 to their win total over under Tomlin. With a win total under 9 under both Tomlin and Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh is 11-1 to their win total over.
The issue in Pittsburgh? Overall, the Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since the 2016-17 season, a total of 8 seasons – the longest drought for Pittsburgh since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger.
➤Aaron Glenn is the new head coach in New York. There have now been eight different Jets coaches since 2000, and none have been above .500 ATS with New York. The last coach above .500 ATS with the Jets was Al Groh in 2000 at 8-7-1 ATS.
➤Justin Fields has made 41 starts in his NFL career. He is 12-29 SU in those starts. When his opponent scores more than 20 pts, Fields’ teams are 0-21 SU (5-15-1 ATS), when they score 20 pts or less Fields is 12-8 SU (11-9 ATS).
➤Since 2022, Fields is actually 14th in the NFL in air yards at 8.3. Since that time, 22 QBs have had an average air yards of 8.0 or higher, of those 22 QBs here is the lowest dropback success rate:
Zack Wilson: 38.9%
Bryce Young and Will Levis: 40.1%
Anthony Richardson: 41.3%
Fields: 44%
➤With Aaron Rodgers, Steelers are looking for a change in the passing effort. Since Big Ben retired at the end of 2021, Pittsburgh’s passing attack has been MIA. In that span, when Pittsburgh averages fewer than 5 yards per attempt in any game, they are 1-10 SU. When they average at least 5 yards per attempt, they are 28-14 SU.
Steelers Pass Game Since 2022
Pass TD: 46 (32nd)
Pass yds: 9,838 (27th)
Pass rtg: 85.7 (21st)
Y/A: 6.2 (24th)
➤Aaron Rodgers has just been average. In his last two full seasons (Last 3 years), his teams are 15-19 to their team total over. Of 60 total QBs who have had 300+ plays on the field, Rodgers is 33rd in EPA + CPOE, 31st in success rate and 41st in air yards.
➤The Steelers went 6-4 SU in one-score games last season. They’ve been over .500 SU in one-score games for 9 straight years and .500 SU or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
➤In 2024 the Dolphins went under their win total for the first time 2017 (they were 4-0-2 in the six years prior). Miami hasn’t gone under in consecutive years since 2010-11.
➤Tua Tagovailoa is 5-14 straight up and 6-12-1 against the spread away from home vs. teams with a 50% win pct or higher — which excludes all Week 1 games. In Week 1, Tua is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS overall, including 2-0 SU/ATS away from home.
➤Since 2008, the Colts are 2-14-1 straight up and ATS in Week 1 – including 1-6 ATS vs. AFC South opponents. Since 2003, the Colts are 6-14-2 ATS in their season opener, the 2nd-least profitable team ATS in the NFL ahead of just the Panthers.
This year, the Colts are facing the Dolphins at home in Week 1. Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning are the only two Colts QBs to win a Week 1 game in the past 20 years.
➤Over the last two seasons, Daniel Jones was 3-13 ATS as a starting QB for the Giants. Of 81 QBs to make a start in that span, his mark of -$1,032 on a $100 bet makes him the least profitable QB ATS in the NFL, just ahead of Will Levis. With the Colts listed as favorites in Week 1, Jones is 5-9 ATS as a favorite in his NFL career, with his last cover in the favorite role coming back in January of 2023 … against the Colts.
➤Anthony Richardson threw 24 touchdown passes in his college career, which is the fewest by a first-round pick QB since 2001. In his 15 career NFL starts, Richardson has 11 passing TDs. In college, Richardson threw a pass TD every 16 attempts. In the NFL that is up to every 31 attempts.
Richardson’s completion pct since being drafted is on a list nobody wants to be on.
Lowest Completion%, 1R QBs Last 30 Years (Min. 300 Pass Att.)
1999 Akili Smith 46.6%
2010 Tim Tebow 47.1%
1998 Ryan Leaf 48.4%
2023 Anthony Richardson 50.6%
2007 JaMarcus Russell 52.1%
➤Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have played three games in a dome while in the first half of their season, when they are freshest as a team, they are 3-0 SU in those games, averaging 30 PPG.
➤Common theme to recent Colts seasons. Under Shane Steichen, Indy is 15-8 ATS in September, October and November and 3-8 ATS in December or later. Only Dan Campbell has more ATS convers in November or earlier than Steichen.
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➤Betting Jaguars win total over? Good luck. Since 2000, Jacksonville is 6-19 to their win total over. They haven’t gone over a win total of more than 7 since 2007. No Jaguars coach is over .500 in their win total record since their first coach, Tom Coughlin.
➤Overall, Trevor Lawrence is 10-11 SU as a favorite. He’s 1 of 6 QBs under .500 SU as a favorite last 20 years with min. 10 starts as a favorite – most starts of those 8 QBs…
32 – Kyler Murray 15-17 SU
21 – Trevor Lawrence 10-11 SU
15 – Robert Griffin III 7-8 SU
15 – Marc Bulger 7-8 SU
➤Starting hot has been a consistent problem for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. In Weeks 1-4, Lawrence is 1-3 SU in each of the four weeks, finishing under .500 SU in all four weeks, for a combined record of 4-12 SU in the four weeks. Of the 63 QBs to start a game since the start of 2021, Lawrence’s 4-12 SU mark is the least profitable on the moneyline of any QB. Starting slow has it Lawrence and the Jags at home, too. In the first 5 weeks, Lawrence is 2-7 SU at home, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL, tied with Daniel Jones and ahead of just Mac Jones (0-7 SU).
➤In Bryce Young’s NFL career, he has made 28 total starts.Young is 12-15-1 ATS, but in the first half he is just 10-18 against the first half spread. That 10-18 1H ATS mark is the 2nd-worst mark of 81 QBs since he was drafted, ahead of just Kyler Murray (8-17 1H ATS). Where Bryce has struggled the most in the first half is in games his team should be competitive in – as either a favorite or an underdog of 3 pts or less on the full game spread, he is 0-4 1H ATS and when the line is +4 or less, he is 3-9 1H ATS.
➤Comebacks haven’t been a part of the Panthers identity in recent years. Carolina has lost 62 consecutive games outright when trailing by more than one possession (9 pts or more) at any point in the game. Their last win came in October of 2018 where Cam Newton led a comeback against Carson Wentz and the Eagles. Carolina is 0-59 SU in this spot since the start of the 2019 season, every other NFL team has at least three wins in this situation.
➤Panthers allowed opposing teams to covert 50.2% of third downs last season, which was not only the highest mark in the NFL, but the worst mark for any team outside the 2020 COVID season in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
➤The Jaguars played ten total games last night season where their defense didn’t force a single turnover, most in the NFL. Over the last decade, only four teams have had 10+ games in a season where their defense didn’t force a single turnover – Jacksonville owns two of those seasons in the last four years (2021, 2024).
➤Russell Wilson gets the start in Week 1, it hasn’t been a great spot for him. He is 2-6-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2015, which ranked 83 of 85 total QBs in that span. In a Week 1 start, Russ has never closed above a field goal underdog, which says a bit about the team expectations he has had for the better part of his career.
➤Combined, the Jets and Giants are 6-21-1 to their win total over since 2011. The Jets are 1-6 to their win total over last 7 years. Since 2011, they are 4-10 to the over. Giants are 1-7 to their win total over last 8 years. Since 2011, they are 2-11-1 to the over.
➤The Commanders entered last year at 150-1 to win it all and they are now 18-1 and a contender. They now join an exclusive list, with a few more members the last few years. Each of the last 4 years we’ve had a “hype team” – a team who went from 150-1 or longer to 20-1 or shorter in Super Bowl odds year-to-year.
8 teams have made the WAS jump.
4 made playoffs
3 won playoff game
0 made SB
6 finished reg season below .500 ATS
➤Malik Nabers had some big performances against the Commanders last season. In total, he had 25 first read and designed targets for him against Washington last year, most against the Commanders for any WR/TE in 2024.
Week 2, then Week 9
Targets: 18. 11
Receptions: 10, 9
1D Receiving: 7, 4
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➤Browns are up to 300-1 to win the Super Bowl this year, that would be their longest odds to win it all since we moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978. In that same span, the Browns have made the playoffs 11 times and all 11 came in years where they entered the season with 50-1 odds to win it all or shorter.
➤Consistency has always been a problem for the Browns. They haven’t eclipsed their win total in consecutive years since 2001-02.
➤Joe Flacco has started 11 total games over the last two seasons for both the Colts and Browns combined, in those 11 games, both teams have averaged a total of 53.1 PPG combined in those matchups, with the over 8-3 in those games, going over the listed total by 11.7 PPG. For QBs with at least ten starts in that span, Flacco’s over ROI (39%) is the 2nd-best behind just Drake Maye (43%), who is 9-3 to the over in this span.
➤Between 1990 and 2022, the Bengals never had a double-digit win total entering any regular season. With a win total of 10 in 2025, this will be their 3rd straight season with a win total of 10+ and they’ve gone under that win total in both seasons.
Bengals with Double-Digit Win Total Since 1990
2025, 10
2024, 10.5 (9 wins)
2023, 11 (9 wins)
➤Browns lost their opener to the Cowboys last year and they are now 2-17-1 SU in Week 1 since 2005, and 3-23-1 SU in openers since 1995. Before 2022 and 2023, the Browns hadn't won back-to-back openers since 1994-95, with their last three-year win streak coming in 1988-90.
➤In Joe Burrow’s NFL career, he is 46-29-1 ATS (61%), but Burrow has had his ATS struggles early in the season. He’s 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in his first two games of the year, and 42-23-1 SU and 43-22-1 ATS in game 3 or later. His 3-7 ATS mark is tied with Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford for the worst mark of 64 QBs since Burrow was drafted.
Burrow is 1-4 SU and ATS in Week 1. Only three quarterbacks have started every Week 1 between 2020 and 2024 and went 1-4 ATS or worse: Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, and Burrow. Burrow has actually beaten the Browns twice in a row after starting 1-5 SU against them.
➤Bengals defense has been an issue for a few seasons now, but last year they allowed 22 passing TDs when leading in the game, the most in the NFL and tied for the 3rd-most for any pass defense in the last decade.
➤Browns are 10-20 ATS vs. AFC North under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of 155 head coaches since 2003 to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the least profitable ATS. Where the Browns have struggled most in this spot is on the road, where he is 3-12 ATS vs. the AFC North.
➤In 2024, the Browns had trouble scoring. When it comes to team totals, they were 14-3 to the under last season, the best mark to the under in the NFL. A big difference from 2023, where they went 12-5 to their team total over, which was also the best mark in the NFL.
➤The Bengals defense really let down the offense last year. Teams who scored 30+ pts went 128-18 SU last year — Bengals had 22% (4-4 SU) of those losses. Since 1990, only four teams have had 6+ games with 30+ pts and finished .500 SU or worse in those games: 2024 Bengals (4-4), 2020 Vikings (3-3), 2017 Texans (3-3) and 2002 Chiefs (4-4). Good news for Cincinnati is the other three teams finished top-2 in division the following season, two making the playoffs.
➤Kickers have had their issues against the Browns. In 2024, kickers went 22-31 (71%) vs. Cleveland, lowest mark in the NFL. In 2023, 17-24 (71%), also the lowest mark in the league.
➤Patriots have gone under their win total in three straight seasons (2022-24), the first time they’ve done that in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Between 2001 and 2021, the Patriots went 15-4-2 to their win total over.
➤Since the start of 2022, the Patriots are 3-29 SU and 5-26-1 ATS when trailing by 7 points or more at any point; both are the worst marks in the NFL.
➤Patriots have been underdogs in 17 consecutive games entering 2025, the longest active streak in the NFL – New England wasn’t favored in a single game last year and is projected to be favored in 11 games in 2025, including Week 1 vs. Raiders.
➤In Drake Maye’s 12 starts last season for the Patriots, the over was 9-3 in those games, going over the total by 3.5 PPG. In Maye’s final seven starts of last season, the over went 6-1 and there was at least 45 combined points scored in 6 of those 7 games.
➤The Raiders don’t consistently cover the spread and their QBs haven’t won in a while. Since 2012, the Raiders have finished above .500 ATS in just 2 of 13 seasons. In that same time frame, they have had 13 different QBs start at least one game for the franchise, none are above .500 SU, with just two at .500 SU with Jimmy Garoppolo (3-3) and Desmond Ridder (1-1).
➤The Patriots and Jaguars won 4 games or less last year and are favorites in Week 1 of the following season. Teams in that spot are 8-13 ATS in the last 20 years, including 0-5 ATS since 2019, failing to cover the spread by 15.8 PPG.
➤Prior to Derek Carr’s retirement announcement, the Saints were 175-1 to win the Super Bowl this year, which was their longest odds to win it all since 1982. After his announcement, New Orleans moved to 250-1 to win it all, which has now ballooned to 300-1, the Saints' longest Super Bowl odds since 1978.
➤Tyler Shough was selected with 40th pick in 1st round, the Saints’ highest-drafted QB since they took Archie Manning second overall in 1971. Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener are a combined 0-7 SU as NFL starting QBs. Taysom Hill is 7-2 SU in his career as an NFL starting QB.
➤Where Kyler Murray has had his issues is winning games for the Cardinals late in the season. In Arizona’s 10th game or later, he is just 12-27 SU as a starter, he’s finished below .500 SU in all six of his seasons. When he faces an NFC West team in that 10th game or later, he is 2-16 SU career.
➤The Saints have gone under .500 ATS in three straight seasons entering this year, that is tied with the Patriots for the longest active streak for any team in the NFL.
➤Spencer Rattler has made six career NFL starts and he is 1-5 ATS overall, including 0-6 against the second half spread of the game, failing to cover that 2nd half spread by an average of 12.2 PPG.
➤The Saints have had issues at home in the Superdome lately. Since 2018, they are 25-36 ATS at home, .500 ATS or worse all 7 seasons, the 2nd-worst ATS mark at home in the NFL ahead of just the Falcons.
➤In the last decade, indoor Week 1 games with an over/under of 45 or less, are 9-3, to the under, going under the total by 2.9 PPG. This is 5-0 to the under the last two seasons.
➤Sacks get in the way of winning. Since 2022, the Cardinals are 0-11 SU in games where they allow 4+ sacks, the only winless team in the NFL in that span and when they allow 3+ sacks, they are 1-20 SU since 2022. Every other team in the NFL has 4+ wins in that spot.
➤Since the start of 2023, the Saints have played 17 games where they trailed entering the 4th quarter. They are 0-17 SU and 2-15 ATS (full game) in those situations, the only winless team SU in the NFL. Their last win came in Week 1 of 2022. Overall, Saints have lost 22 straight games when trailing entering the 4th, last win was Week 1 of 2022. Since the start of 2020 season, New Orleans is 2-32 SU and 5-29 ATS in this spot.
➤If the Cardinals close as 6+ point favorites against the Saints, they will fit this trend. Favorites of 6+ points, who failed to make the playoffs the previous season, are 2-11 ATS in the first four games of the regular season the following year over the last three seasons. Since 2010, teams who fit this trend are 39-54 ATS (42%).
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➤Baker Mayfield is 19-31-1 (38%) ATS as a favorite since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,308. Since he was drafted back in 2018, Mayfield is the third-least profitable QB ATS of 101 QBs, ahead of only Derek Carr and Russell Wilson. Mayfield has never finished a season above .500 ATS as a favorite.
➤In Mayfield’s career, he has made 20 starts as a favorite against a divisional opponent. His teams are 6-14 ATS in those games. Of 85 different QBs to make a start as a favorite vs. a divisional opponent, Mayfield’s mark is the worst in the NFL. Even when you look at toss-up games (spread of 4 or less), Mayfield is 4-12 ATS vs. his own division in his last 16 starts in the spot.
➤6, 6.5, 6, 4.5, 4.5
What do those five numbers represent? Those are the Falcons sack leaders over the last five seasons – none have even had 7+. The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks back in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta is the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
➤Falcons open up the season at home in Atlanta for the 6th consecutive season, now doing so every year since 2020. The Falcons are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in those five openers.
➤Falcons have only finished above .500 ATS in one of its last 8 seasons dating back to 2017 – in that span, Atlanta is 53-78-1 ATS in the regular season, losing a $100 bettor $2,897, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
➤Michael Penix Jr. played the majority of his snaps in Weeks 16, 17 and 18 last season. During those three weeks, Falcons WR Drake London led the NFL in receiving yards with 352 on 39 targets, which also led the NFL. Under Penix in Weeks 16-18, London had an average depth of target of 12.9 yards downfield – Weeks 1-15, he had a 10.7 aDOT.
➤We haven't had a double-digit favorite in Week 1 since Eagles vs. Commanders in 2019. The six-year run without a double-digit favorite in Week 1 is the longest such streak since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. This is the biggest spread of Week 1.
➤There have been 28 No. 1 pick QBs since the merger in 1970. In their 1st start, they are 5-22-1 SU, 8-20 ATS with Caleb Williams breaking the drought of QBs winning last year, with the last one before Caleb being David Carr in 2002.
➤The Titans are +7.5 vs. Denver in Week 1, tied for their biggest line as an underdog in Week 1 since moving to Tennessee in 1997 (they were +7.5 back in 2007 vs. Jaguars).
➤The Broncos had the best defense in the NFL last year. By most standards, but for this concept it was by EPA per play on defense, too.
Since 2014, 25 teams have put up a defensive EPA/play of -0.1 or better (not including 2024 DEN) – all 25 teams had a worse EPA/play mark the following year with 22 of the 25 teams also having a worse EPA/play ranking than the previous year. Only one team improved their ranking year-to-year, the 2019-20 Steelers. On average, teams had a ranking about 8.3 spots worse the following year after an incredible defensive season.
➤Broncos defense had 183 total pressures on 1st and 2nd down (early downs) last season, not only the most in the NFL, but the most for a team in a season over the last three years.
➤In Sean Payton's 17 seasons as a head coach he's never finished back-to-back years under .500 ATS. Last year, Denver went 12-6 ATS, Payton’s 2nd-best season ATS of his career (2011). In 13 of his 17 seasons, Payton’s teams have finished above .500 ATS.
➤Broncos are 7.5-pt favorites vs. Titans in Week 1, their largest Week 1 line as a favorite since 2013 and 2014 when they closed at -7.5 and -8 both years. If they close above -8 it would be their biggest Week 1 line since 1997 and 1998 at -8.5 and -9.
➤In Bo Nix’s early career as a starter, he has been a cover machine, going 12-5 ATS last year. In fact, Nix is only the fourth rookie QB to cover 11-plus games in a season in the Wild Card era since 1990, joining 2012 Russell Wilson, 2012 Andrew Luck, and 2008 Joe Flacco – with Flacco the only QB to cover 12+ games with Bo.
➤Nix has closed as a favorite eight times in his 17 career starts, and he is 8-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 14 points per game. Nix was the first rookie QB to start even 6-0 SU/ATS as a favorite all in their rookie year in the Super Bowl era.
➤When the Seahawks open the season at home, they are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS since 2000. Seattle is 32-6 SU at home in their first three games of the regular season dating back to 2003.
➤In the last 30 seasons, the Seahawks have opened the season at home as an underdog just twice:
2022, +6.5 vs. Broncos (W, 17-16)
2010, +3 vs. 49ers (W, 31-6)
Seahawks were 2-7 ATS at home last season, failing to cover the spread by 3.7 PPG, their worst home season ATS since 2004 (1-8 ATS). For what once was a place where cover dreams went to die, Seattle is just 13-21 ATS at home since 2021, 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Falcons (11-22 ATS).
➤Sam Darnold faced the 49ers last season while the starting QB of the Vikings. In that Week 2 game, Darnold had an intended air yards per pass attempt mark of 6.5 yds downfield, which was not only his shortest mark of any start last season, but his shortest mark since 2022.
➤14 teams have a win total of 9 or more entering this year – only the Bengals and 49ers have a win total higher than their total actual wins from 2024. From SF point of view, their win total is four total wins higher (6 to 10). In the last decade, SF will be just the 4th team to jump 4+ wins to have a win total of 9 or more the following year:
2025 49ers, 6 to 10
2024 Chargers, 5 to 9 (won 11 games)
2021 Broncos, 5 to 9 (won 7 games)
2021 49ers, 6 to 10.5 (won 10 games)
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+ They ended last season 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games.
+ San Francisco has covered just one road game since the 2023 calendar year (1-7 ATS)
+ SF went 5-12 ATS last year (T-fewest ATS wins last 20 years)
+ SF hasn’t covered consecutive games ATS since Dec 3. 2023
➤Brock Purdy has made three career starts on the road in Seattle and the 49ers are 3-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 8 PPG. Purdy is 3-0 ATS on the road vs. Seahawks and 5-10 ATS on the road vs. all other teams.
➤If the 49ers have a 4th quarter comeback this week, it would be a first. Kyle Shanahan is 0-45 SU in the regular season and playoffs with SF after trailing by 8+ points in the 4th quarter (via AP).
➤Since the start of the 2024 calendar year, the 49ers have covered one game against an NFC West opponent – Oct. 10 in Seattle. They are 1-6 ATS vs. NFC West in that span.
➤The field position battle went against the 49ers last year. Their opponents started drives on average from SF’s 33 yard line, worst mark in the NFL. In 2023 (26.2) and 2022 (25.7), they had the best mark in the league in this category.
➤For the Seahawks to succeed, they need a healthy Cooper Kupp. The issue for Kupp lately is he hasn’t won his matchup and isn’t separating vs. the defense like he had. In 2023 and 2024, he ranked about 39th on average for WR in separation for about a 15.5% win rate. In 2022, his win rate was 28.4%, 9th of 107 WRs.
Percentage of Routes with a Positive Separation Score (Fantasy Pts, min. 300 routes)
2024: 14.6%
2023: 16.5%
2022: 28.4%
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➤Over the last four years, the Lions are setting records for ATS performance during the regular season.
2024: 12-4-1 ATS
2023 12-5 ATS
2022: 12-5 ATS
2021: 11-6 ATS
The Lions are 47-20-1 ATS (70.2%) in regular season over the last four years and 36-14-1 ATS (72%) over the last three years – both are records for any team in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
➤The Lions have gone over their win total in three straight seasons entering 2025, their longest over streak since 1993 to 1995.
➤Dan Campbell is 11-3 ATS in September, going above .500 ATS in all four seasons.
Who is the most profitable QB against the spread in Week 1 since 2003? The answer: Jared Goff, who is 8-0 ATS in his opener (4-0 SU/ATS with the Rams and 2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS with the Lions).
➤Indoor games have always been a good thing for Jared Goff in Detroit and even late L.A. days. Since 2019, he is 41-18-1 ATS in indoor games, over .500 ATS each season, covering by just under 4 PPG with an ATS ROI of +32% in those 60 games.
➤No head coach is better covering early than LaFleur. Packers are 15-3 ATS within their first 3 games of the season since 2019, best of any team in the NFL – that mark includes 7-0 ATS at home in Lambeau Field.
LaFleur is 15-6 ATS in September, but he is 8-1 ATS on the road and 7-3 ATS at home (0-2 ATS in neutral site games).
➤Packers have had their issues against the Lions. They are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. Lions. Since 2017, Packers are 3-12-1 ATS vs. Detroit.
➤Last year, the Texans had one of the biggest jumps from non-contender to contender we have ever seen. They went from 200-1 in 2023 to 16-1 in 2024, the 3rd-biggest jump to 20-1 or shorter year-to-year since the start of the 16-game schedule. Of the 7 other teams to make that big jump to 20-1 or shorter, only three made the playoffs in that first year (2024 in the Texans sake):
- 2021-22 Bengals
- 1999-00 Rams
- 1990-91 Cowboys
The Rams and Cowboys in their season after the big jump both made the Super Bowl, while the Bengals finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs. The other four teams who missed the playoffs that first year, also missed the year after the big jump.
➤CJ Stroud has made 36 starts in his NFL career and he is 11-6 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite.
➤The question is always which Texans offense do we expect to show up. Here is a comparison between Stroud’s first and second year. Last year, the Texans went 13-4 against the first half spread (best mark in the NFL) and 4-13 against the second half spread (worst mark in the NFL).
1st season
First half: 13 TD, 2 INT, 102 pass rtg
Second half: 10 TD, 3 INT, 99 pass rtg
2nd season
First half: 13 TD, 6 INT, 94.2 pass rtg
Second half: 7 TD, 6 INT, 78 pass rtg
➤Rams are 6-2 to their win total over under Sean McVay, including going over the last two years. The Rams had gone under their win total in four straight years before McVay came aboard. Even with McVay’s success, in the Wild Card era (since 1990), the Rams have never gone over their preseason win total in three consecutive seasons.
➤McVay and Matthew Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 30-9 SU when listed as favorites and only 9-16 SU as underdogs.
➤Stafford has finished below .500 against the second half spread in 7 straight seasons, where he is 40-61-3 2H ATS, 137th of 137 QBs to start in that span. When Stafford’s team has a lead at the half, he is 13-31-1 2H ATS in that span, going 2-16-1 2H ATS since 2022.
➤Bills win total is set at 11.5. Buffalo has gone over their win total in three straight years and is 7-1 to their win total over in their last 8 years. The only year they went under was 2021, winning 11 games with a 11.5 win total.
➤Expectations are high in Baltimore. Ravens should enter the regular season with under 10-1 odds to win it all for just the 3rd time in franchise history.
Ravens Lowest Odds Win Super Bowl – Entering Regular Season
+500 – 2020 (Divisional Round)
+700 – 2025
+800 – 2001 (Divisional Round)
➤In the last two regular seasons, the Ravens are 23-11 to their team total over, the best mark for any team in the NFL. Last year, their offense was #1 in EPA/play and dropback EPA and their yards per play on offense was #1 by over a half a yard.
➤Bills are just one of three teams ever to win 10+ games for five straight seasons without reaching the Super Bowl, joining Eagles and Rams. Buffalo has now done it in six straight years, matching only the 1973-78 Rams.
➤Sean McDermott is a coach who tends to start hot. Buffalo is 12-4 SU in September since 2020.
➤11 different players have won multiple NFL MVP awards: Peyton, Aaron, Jim Brown, Unitas, Favre, Brady, Montana, Young, Warner, Mahomes and Lamar. At the moment – with a hopefully long career ahead still – Lamar Jackson is the only one to not play in a Super Bowl – plus, the other ten also won a Super Bowl, too.
➤Lamar Jackson is 9-6 straight up and 12-3 against the spread when listed as an underdog in his NFL career and he’s 14-1 in a 6-pt teaser as an underdog. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the two QBs Jackson has lost to ATS as an underdog in his career.
➤Lamar Jackson has played 25 road games inside a turf-surfaced stadium and he is 20-5 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 7.5 PPG – during the regular season, that mark is 19-3 ATS on the road playing on turf.
➤The Ravens have been favored in 18 consecutive games entering the 2025 season, longest active streak in the NFL – as of now they are underdogs in Week 1 on the road against the Bills.
➤Can you name the most profitable Week 1 NFL coach in the Action Labs database, which goes back 22 years?
John Harbaugh! We know Harbaugh is good on extra rest. If he's got 10 or more days to prepare, his Ravens are 29-10 SU and 22-15-2 ATS outside of Week 1. But if we look at JUST Week 1, the Ravens coach is 12-5 ATS.
➤The Bears have gone under their win total now in four straight seasons, the longest active under streak in the NFL. Since 2019, the Bears are 5-0-1 to their win total under, last time going over back in 2018 behind Mitch Trubisky. Dating back to 2013, the Bears are 10-1-1 to their win total under.
➤Bears have had issues scoring on the road recently. In the last two seasons, they are 5-12 to their team total over when playing on the road. In comparison, they are 11-6 to their team total over in their home games in that span.
➤The Vikings made history last year. They finished the regular season 14-3 SU after having a win total of 6.5 entering last year. They were the first team since the 2015 Panthers to finish at least 6.5 games above their win total and the first team in the last 20 years to finish 7.5 games above their win total.
Here are the teams to eclipse their win total by 6+ and how they performed the year after.
2024-25 Vikings (14, 6.5) -> TBD
2015-16 Panthers (15, 8.5) -> 6, 10.5
2008-09 Falcons (11, 4.5) -> 9, 8.5
2004-05 Steelers (15, 7.5) -> 11, 9.5
2004-05 Chargers (12, 4.5) -> 9, 8
➤Underdogs in Week 1 on Monday Night Football have historically had success. The Jets didn’t come through vs. 49ers last year, but underdogs in Week 1 on Monday Night Football are 29-13-1 ATS since 1998 and 24-12-1 ATS since 2003.
➤Sacks were a problem for Caleb Williams and the Bears last year. In total, Caleb was sacked 68 times in his first season, tied for the 3rd-most ever since sacked were recorded in 1982. In games where Caleb was sacked 4+ times last year, the Bears went 0-7 SU, averaging just 11 PPG.
Most Sacks in a Season
76 – David Carr, 2002
72 – Randall Cunningham, 1986
68 – Caleb Williams, 2024
68 – David Carr, 2005
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NFL Betting Systems
System: West coast based teams playing on the east coast. Since 2019, they cover at over a 61% rate. In Week 1, they are 11-2 ATS. In a team's first five games of the regular season since 2019, these west coast road teams are 43-13-2 ATS, almost a 77% cover rate.
Matches: LVR
System: This system is .500 ATS or better in six straight seasons. Focus is on bad projected teams early in the season.
Matches: DAL, CAR, MIA, LV, NYG, TEN
System: Forget the spread. Early in the season, underdogs on the moneyline have shown value in this system during divisional games.
Matches: LAC, DET, SEA, ATL, CHI
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System: Since 2021, games with a home underdog have turned an under rate of almost 57%. In the first three games of the regular season that under win rate rises to 67% at 49-24-1, going under the total by over 4 PPG.
Matches: KC/LAC, TB/ATL, ARI/NO, SF/SEA, CIN/CLE, PIT/NYJ, MIN/CHI
System: This system looks for falling over/under's in Week 1 of the regular season. System is 16-7 ATS last three seasons.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: Underdogs in low total games are 30 games above .500 against the spread since 2018, but last year, the first time under .500 ATS since 2017. Fade or follow.
Matches: TEN, NYJ
