The Week 3 experience was nearly unmatched. In the "witching hour" of the 1p ET games on Sunday, the twists and turns brought unreal chaos. Good thing this week brings some top-notch matchups.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 4 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Sept. 23, at 5 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Late Chaos
Comeback City
So far this season, we've seen some late chaos. Teams who lead entering the fourth quarter are 31-14 ATS (XXX%) over the full game line this season – that is the worst mark, both through 3 weeks and over a full season, in the Wild Card era, since 1990.
If you look at teams who are trailing at the half this year, they are 28-16 (64%) against the second half spread. Betting teams who trail at the half has been a profitable angle for a few years now: those teams are 464-361-12 against the second half spread since 2022. A $100 bettor would be up $6,434 for a +7.7% ROI taking teams who trail at the half.
A Different World
Mahomes Home Dog
Here we go again. Patrick Mahomes is listed as an underdog and a home underdog this week. As an underdog, Mahomes is 11-5 SU and 12-3-1 ATS as a starter. When Mahomes is -3 or shorter as a favorite, or an underdog, he is 28-12-1 ATS – but he’s lost three in a row ATS, twice this season.
Mahomes has closed as a home dog of 3 pts or more last in college with Texas Tech. It was November 5, 2016 against QB Shane Buechele and Texas (they were +3 and lost 45-37). In college or the pros, Mahomes has never won a game SU as a home underdog – he is 0-2 SU in the NFL and he was 0-7 SU in college at Texas Tech.
Fun With Numbers
Just Bad
One issue San Francisco has had is in the second halves. Since the start of last season, they are 3-17 against the 2nd half spread, the worst mark for any team in the NFL.
Overall, the Titans ATS misery shows no bounds. They are…
2-14 ATS in their last 16 games
3-17 ATS in their last 20
6-23-1 ATS in their last 30
7-25-1 ATS in their last 33
What A Run
Lions Cover Machines
After Monday Night Football, the Lions are now covering 70% of their regular season games since 2021 at 49-21-1 ATS.
Between 2020 and 2024, the Lions were 47-20-1 ATS (70.2%) in regular season and 36-14-1 ATS (72%) over the last three years – both are records for any team in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
What Dan Campbell and the Lions have accomplished against the spread is historic. But in my opinion, what they are doing after winning is remarkable. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 22-6 ATS in their next game after a 6+ pt win and they are 19-5 ATS after a 7+ pt win.
Lost CeeDee
Cowboys Down A Star
Under Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have only closed +7 or higher once at home in his 66 career starts in Dallas. Cowboys ended up closing +7 at home back in 2018 vs. the Saints and Drew Brees – Dallas upset New Orleans, 13-10.
Night Terrors
Jets At Night
The Jets and Giants have played a combined 39 night games since the start of the 2019 season. They are a combined 5-34 SU in those games. Dating back to 2019, the Jets and Giants are a combined 1-16 SU on the road in primetime.
Not to mention, at home in South Beach for a primetime matchup, Tua has started four games in his career – he is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games. Dating back to 2003, that is the most ATS home losses without a win for any QB at home in primetime.
Every NFL Game For Week 4
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➤Seahawks have dominated the Cardinals over the last few years, going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS since the calendar turned to 2022. In terms of Kyler Murray, he is 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in his career against the Seahawks, with his last SU win coming all the way back in 2020.
➤Early on, this is going to be a race to see who can survive the longest. When looking at first half against the spread marks when teams are on short rest, Sam Darnold is 3-7 1H ATS in his career – although his team is averaging 18.3 PPG in the 1H in this spot since 2022 – and Kyler Murray is 2-9 1H ATS in that spot.
➤Against the NFC West, Kyler Murray is unfathomable 6-24 against the first half spread, including 1-14 1H ATS vs. NFC West in his last 15 starts. Of 245 QBs since 2005, Kyler’s 6-24 1H ATS is the worst for any QB – 2nd-worst is Tony Romo at 17-31 1H ATS.
➤A 49er effect? The Cardinals have lost five consecutive games outright in their game directly after facing the 49ers, including going 4-18 SU in that spot since 2012. Kyler Murray himself is 2-6 SU after Arizona faces San Francisco.
➤A Minnesota thing? Sam Darnold has started seven career games after being a 6+ pt favorite in his previous start. With the Vikings, he went 5-0 SU in this spot. Prior to that, he went 0-2 SU.
➤The road at night hasn’t been an easy spot for Seattle. Dating back to 2018, they are 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS on the road in primetime. After beating the Bears on the road at night in Week 17 last year, this would be their first consecutive wins in this spot since 2017 if they get the victory.
➤Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence entered this season 15-17 SU and 10-11 SU respectively as favorites in their careers – they are both 2-0 SU as favorites so far this season. With a loss Thursday, here is the list Kyler will be on:
Most QB Starts as Favorite, Under .500 as Fav. Career
Michael Vick, 21-22 SU (43 games)
Robert Griffin, 7-8 SU (15 games)
Chad Henne, 5-8 SU (13 games)
➤The Kyler Murray home vs. road splits when it comes to totals are drastic. When he starts on the road, the under is 28-13-1 (68%), 2nd-best mark of 279 QBs since 2003. When he starts at home, the ver is 26-18, the 4th-best mark of 120 QBs since he was drafted.
➤As starter for the Cardinals, Kyler Murray is 8-22 SU against the NFC West, including 3-10 SU since 2022. Kyler has never finished a season above .500 SU vs. his own division. Since his 1st start, a $100 bettor would be down $842, 2nd-worst mark of 116 QBs, ahead of just Justin Fields.
➤Unlike against the Saints, the Seahawks might need a better Cooper Kupp against the Cardinals this week.
Kupp’s Pct of Routes with a Positive Separation Score (Fantasy Pts, min. 300 routes)
2025: 13%
2024: 14.6%
2023: 16.5%
2022: 28.4%
➤The Seahawks, Vikings and Panthers all won by 30 pts or more in Week 3. In a teams first 7 games of the regular season, teams are 36-57-3 ATS (39%) the game after winning by 30 pts or more since 2003.
➤Aaron Rodgers has a lot of experience facing the Vikings. He is 17-12-1 SU and 17-13 ATS against Minnesota in his career. Rodgers is .500 SU and ATS or better vs Brad Childress, Mike Zimmer and Leslie Frazier while with the Vikings, but he is 1-2 SU/ATS vs. Kevin O’Connell.
➤Aaron Rodgers has only faced a Brian Flores-led defense once in his career, while Flores was with either the Dolphins or VIkings, his two prominant positions. It was in 2024 with the Jets, a 23-17 loss to Minnesota overseas in London. In that game, Rodgers wasn’t his best with 2 TDs and 3 INTs, but under pressure he was 5-14 passing and when blitzed he threw 1 of his 3 INTs.
➤Mike Tomlin has coached in three neutral site games in his coaching career with the Steelers and the over is 3-0, going over the total by 11.5 PPG – one overseas game and two Super Bowls.
➤The Steelers run game has been non-existent. Pittsburgh is averaging 2.82 yards per carry, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Bengals. For the 5th time under Mike Tomlin, Steelers have fewer than 200 rush yds through three games and the third time since 2019. Here is how those previous four seasons ended for Pittsburgh:
2021, 9-7-1 SU, L in WC
2019, 8-8 SU, Miss
2013, 8-8 SU, Miss
2012, 8-8 SU, Miss
➤A few facts and trends from the 50 total international games:
The under has a small edge at 26-24. Here's a breakdown by stadium:
Wembley: 14-12 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 2-0 to the under
Corinthians: 2-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 6-4 to the over
➤Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 36-13-1 SU and 32-18 ATS. Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 19-6-1 SU, best of any International Series stadium. A little cherry picking, but favorites are 29-6-1 SU at Wembley, Azteca, Deutsche Bank and Twickenham.
Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
60%+: 21-16 ATS
66%+: 14-10 ATS
70%+: 8-3 ATS
➤Aaron Rodgers has started two games in overseas games, one with the Jets (2024) and one with the Packers (2022) – he is 0-2 SU/ATS in those matchups, failing to cover the spread by 9 PPG. In the two games, Rodgers’ teams have scored 3 total points in the 3rd quarter coming out of the locker room and they’ve scored 12 pts in total in the second half.
Mike Tomlin has coached in one overseas game, back in 2013 .. a loss to the Vikings.
➤The Seahawks, Vikings and Panthers all won by 30 pts or more in Week 3. In a teams first 7 games of the regular season, teams are 36-57-3 ATS (39%) the game after winning by 30 pts or more since 2003.
➤Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons had a rough Week 3, losing to the Panthers, 30-0. Penix entered Week 3 with a completion pct over expected of -6.4%. In Week 3, his CPOE was -12.5 and now this season, his mark is -8.6%, 2nd-worst in the NFL, ahead of just Trevor Lawrence.
➤Last week, Falcons became the 9th team since 1990 to score no points and be favored by 4 points or more and the first since the Bucs in 2021. 7 of the 9 teams had a game after this big letdown, and they went 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS.
➤If the Falcons close as home underdogs this week, they would fit the trend of teams to close as dogs after losing by 30+ pts since 2003, they are 115-78-8 ATS (60%), including 25-14-1 ATS since 2020. If you look at teams who score 3 pts or less in their previous game, they are 86-61-5 ATS (59%) since 2014.
➤The Falcons, Bengals and Saints should all close as dogs of +1.5 or higher after losing by 30+ points last week – those teams are 112-72-7 ATS (61%) since 2003.
➤Overall, Raheem Morris has had a better history covering on the road vs. home, even after last week. He’s 21-18-1 ATS on the road and 12-25 ATS at home. That home ATS mark is the 4th-worst of 147 coaches in the last 20 years. When Morris’ teams come home needing a win after a SU loss, they are just 6-12 ATS.
➤Marcus Mariota is 29-45-3 against the first half spread in the NFL. Of 266 QBs since 2005, Mariota’s 1st half ATS mark is the 4th-worst, ahead of just Jay Cutler, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith. Mariota has never finished a season even .500 1H ATS in six seasons. After his 1H cover vs. Raiders last week – he hasn’t covered the 1H spread in consecutive games since 2018.
➤For just the 3rd time as a head coach, Dan Quinn could have to start a backup QB this week – In 2019 with the Falcons he had Matt Schaub come in for a game (lost 27-20, but covered +7.5). He is 2-0 ATS with a backup QB. Under Ron Rivera, Washington did very well with a slew of backups like Sam Howell, Taylor Heinicke and Alex Smith, going 10-2-2 ATS.
➤Dan Quinn does not perform well with expectations. In his career as a NFL coach, he is 29-39 ATS as a favorite, but that may have been an issue for the past. With the Falcons he was 20-35 ATS as a favorite, with the Commanders he is 9-4 ATS in the role.
➤Falcons are the only team in the NFL who is 3-0 to the full game under, 3-0 to the first half under and 3-0 to the 2nd half under so far this season.
➤Another week, another big spread for Josh Allen and the Bills. Over the last five seasons, Josh and Buffalo have been double-digit favorites in 20 total games (8-10-2 ATS), not including this week, the most in the NFL. The closest is Mahomes with 15 such games (5-9-1 ATS).
➤Saints are 16.5-point underdogs in Buffalo next week – This is New Orleans' biggest underdog in any game since November of 1975 — matchup that day was Archie Manning, Saints (+16.5) vs. Fran Tarkenton, Vikings.
➤Since 2019, we’ve only seen one double-digit upset early in the season, first four games – DD dogs are 1-25 SU and 10-16 ATS in the first four games of the regular season since 2019. The one upset was the Cardinals over the Cowboys in 2023.
➤As a favorite of more than one possession (-8.5 or higher), Josh Allen is 27-2 SU in his career – his losses are to Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence. Last 20 years, the only records that compete with Allen’s mark is Mahomes at 39-3 SU and Russ at 36-4 SU among active QBs.
➤Josh Allen has closed above a 10-pt favorite 18 times in his career, he is 6-10-2 ATS (38%) in those games – he has failed to cover the spread in 8 straight in this spot, with his last cover coming back in 2022. Here is the list of QBs Josh has covered against in this spot: Kenny Pickett, Zack Wilson, Cam Newton, Mike White, Davis Mills and Dwayne Haskins.
➤Saints have not started strong this season. They are not only 0-3 against the first quarter spread, but they’ve been outscored 30-0 in the opening frame this year, joining the Browns as the only two teams to not score in the first quarter yet this season.
➤Spencer Rattler has now made nine career NFL starts and has yet to find a win, 0-9 SU. Rattler’s last win in CFB or NFL came against Kentucky on November 18th, 2023. If Rattler wants to start making history he’ll need one more loss, here is the list of players to start 0-10 SU since 1990.
DeShone Kizer 15
Stan Gelbaugh 11
Derek Carr 10
Zach Mettenberger 10
Brodie Croyle 10
➤Bills have won the turnover battle in 25 straight games – that’s the longest streak in NFL history. Part of the reason why is Josh Allen’s turnover fix.
➤Here is Josh’s turnover worthy throw pct, hero% and off target percentage over the last five seasons. All three categories are a low for him, which is helping the turnover categories.
TWT%, Hero%, Off Target%
2025: 2%, 1%, 13.1%
2024: 2.1%, 7.5%, 19%
2023: 3.3%, 4.8%, 15.7%
2022: 4.2%, 7.6%, 16.6%
2021: 4.5%, 6.5%, 17.3%
(Hero% = pct of pass att QB makes an extraordinary throw to maximimze result of play)
➤After Monday Night Football, the Lions are now covering 70% of their regular season games since 2021 at 49-21-1 ATS.
Between 2020 and 2024, the Lions were 47-20-1 ATS (70.2%) in regular season and 36-14-1 ATS (72%) over the last three years – both are records for any team in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Between 2020-24, Detroit covered 65.1% of games, which is the 4th-best mark since 1990 and best since Packers between 2007-11. For Detroit to take the record this upcoming year (2021-25), they need just nine ATS victories during the regular season.
➤Browns have been on a road skid. Cleveland has lost six straight games ATS on the road and they’ve lost nine straight road games outright. For some perspective on how bad it’s been for the Browns on the road, they haven’t won consecutive road games outright since December of 2020.
➤The Lions are playing on short rest this week after facing the Ravens on the road on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Teams on short rest facing a team not on short rest, who open as a double-digit favorite, which the Lions did are just 2-7 ATS recently dating back to 2020, failing to cover the spread by 5 PPG. Teams favored by more than 7 pts in that spot are also 10-15 ATS in that span.
➤Only twice has Dan Campbell closed as a favorite of 6 pts or more on short rest as coach of the Lions. Last year at home vs. Bears, Detroit was -9.5 and won 23-20. In 2023 they were -8.5 vs. Packers and lost outright, 29-22.
➤Indoor games have always been a good thing for Jared Goff in Detroit and even late L.A. days. Since 2019, he is 42-18-1 ATS in indoor games, over .500 ATS each season, covering the spread by 4.3 PPG with an ATS ROI of +33.4% in those 61 games.
➤What Dan Campbell and the Lions have accomplished against the spread is historic. But in my opinion, what they are doing after winning is remarkable. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 22-6 ATS in their next game after a 6+ pt win and they are 19-5 ATS after a 7+ pt win.
➤Through three games, no teams has been more pass-heavy in the NFL than the Cleveland Browns – mostly script related, but 67.5% of their plays have been by the pass, with only 32.5% on the ground.
➤The Browns rush defense has been absurd. This season, opposing RBs are averaging 2.29 yards per carry vs. Cleveland, lowest mark in the NFL, with only nine first downs on the ground for opposing teams, also lowest mark in the league.
➤Can the Browns do it again this week? Some history of b2b big upsets.
+ In the first 4 games of the regular season, a team off an upset of +7 or higher are 18-9-4 ATS in their next game in the last 20 years.
+ The bad news? Teams after an upset of +7 or higher, who is +7 or higher again are 35-48-2 ATS in that span. Dating back to 2014, these teams looking for consecutive big upsets are 2-41 SU and 13-29-1 ATS in that second upset attempt.
➤The Browns at home in the dawg pound has been a nightmare for good teams recently. Cleveland is 13-5 SU at home vs. teams above .500 since 2020, a $100 bettor would be up $1,281. The week after pulling this upset at home, Browns are just 4-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 5.6 PPG.
➤Same situation: for the 5th time in franchise history, the Panthers will face the Patriots away from home – in those previous four games, the Panthers were listed as underdog in each, covering the spread as an underdog all four times.
➤Patriots have lost 5 consecutive games ATS when listed as a favorite dating back to Oct 1 of 2023. In that span, only the Giants and Panthers don’t have a single cover as a favorite, joining the Patriots. If New England fails to cover the spread vs. Carolina, it would be the Pats longest ATS losing streak as a favorite since 2007-08 when they lost 7 straight as favorites.
➤Mike Vrabel has done well against bad teams. With the Patriots and Titans, his teams are 28-11 SU vs. teams under .500 SU on the season – against teams above .500 SU, Vrabel is 23-28 SU.
➤Patriots pass defense this season has been a real problem without Christian Gonzalez all season, but their start isn’t too different than last year. Patriots have allowed opposing QBs to complete 74.2% of their passes through two weeks, the 2nd-highest mark in franchise history. The highest? 75% mark through three games last year. New England is 29th in dropback success rate and 28th in dropback EPA on defense.
➤Bryce Young has only won 7 total games outright as an NFL starter, but in the games he’s faced a struggling pass defense (allowing 250+ pass yds on season), like with the Patriots this week, he is still 0-7 SU as a starter (3-4 ATS).
➤Bryce has started 15 total road games in his early career and he is 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS, covering his last road game against the Cardinals in Week 2. Against non-divisional opponents, Bryce is 0-9 SU on the road, losing by 12.9 PPG (3-6 ATS).
➤The Seahawks, Vikings and Panthers all won by 30 pts or more in Week 3. In a teams first 7 games of the regular season, teams are 36-57-3 ATS (39%) the game after winning by 30 pts or more since 2003.
➤TreVeyeon Henderson has had his struggles running the ball this season. According to NFL Next Gen stats, he is averaging -1.99 rushing yards over expected per attempt this year, 2nd-worst of any RB ahead of just Rico Dowdle.
➤Tight win? Patriots lost an absurd four fumbles last week vs. Steelers. Teams who are favored week after losing 4+ fumbles are 20-6 SU and 10-16 ATS since 2000.
➤Panthers shutout the Falcons last week.Overall, teams off a shutout are 63-56-4 1H ATS the week after since 2005 – a bit surprising there isn’t a bit of a letdown. There is when you look at the spread, teams favored on full game line are 45-30-3 1H ATS in this spot, while underdogs are 18-26-1 1H ATS.
➤Chargers have dominated the series with the Giants dating back to 2000, going 5-0 SU and ATS. Giants last win over the Chargers came back in 1998 behind Danny Kanell against Ryan Leaf.
➤Jim Harbaugh is 14-6-2 ATS in September, going .500 ATS or better in each of his seasons as a coach in the NFL. One step further, Harbaugh is 28-10-2 ATS in September and October in the NFL.
➤Herbert has been great away from home, going 27-16 ATS in his career on the road or neutral site, including 12-5 ATS in September and October. Herbert has covered 10 of his last 13 road/neutral games dating back to 2023.
➤Another accolade for Herbert on the road is his 1H ATS mark. He is 28-14 1H ATS on the road – in the last 20 years, only Lamar Jackson has a better record (33-16-1).
➤Herbert doesn’t mind a good road trip. He’s 13-5 ATS in all games played in EST, including 20-10 ATS in EST or CST, which is the 3rd-best mark in the NFL since he was drafted behind Goff and Burrow.
➤Justin Herbert has made 84 career starts in the NFL. He is 44-40 SU, 47-35-2 ATS.
When his defense allows 24 pts or fewer, he is 36-12 SU, 36-10-2 ATS.
When his defense allows more than 24 pts, he is 8-28 SU, 11-25 ATS.
Herbert ATS by head coach with Chargers:
Jim Harbaugh – 15-5-1 ATS
Anthony Lynn – 8-7 ATS
Brandon Staley – 24-23-1 ATS
➤In the first two months of the regular season (Sept-Oct), the under is now 16-1 in Giants home games since 2021, 22-2 since 2019 and 27-4 since 2017.
➤As a head coach, Brian Daboll is 19-36-1 SU, with all six of the QBs he’s had starting for him below .500 SU as a starter as well:
Tommy DeVito: 3-5 SU
Tyrod Taylor: 2-3 SU
Daniel Jones: 13-20-1 SU
Drew Lock: 1-4 SU
Davis Webb: 0-1 SU
Russell Wilson: 0-3 SU
➤Chargers started the season with three straight division games and won them all. They are the 7th team since 1990 to start 3-0 SU, all against division opponents. Crazy part is only 3 of those previous six teams went on to win their division and two missed the playoffs altogether. In history, only four other teams have won gone 3-0 SU/ATS vs. division opponents to start the season:
2003 Vikings
1996 Panthers
1994 Giants
1971 Washington
➤Since the calendar turned to 2024, the Eagles have faced seven teams more than once, they are above .500 SU vs. six of them and 0-2 SU vs. the Bucs. It’s not a new thing either, since 2015, Eagles are 1-6 SU vs. the Bucs.
In Baker’s last two games vs. Eagles he has 5 TD passes, 0 interceptions, 684 yards passing with over a 60% completion pct.
➤Jalen Hurts moved to 28-3 SU as a home favorite in Week 3 over the Rams. But even in the more competitive games, he has a good record. In road games where the Eagles are -3 or shorter or an underdog, Hurts is 11-8 SU, having won five games in a row.
➤Eagles had just 33 total yards in the first half last week – the lowest by any team in the first half of a game this season and the lowest for the Eagles in the first half of a game in the last 10 years. This season, the Eagles are 0-3 1H ATS. When was the last time they started 0-3 1H ATS? How about last year, and they finished 13-8 1H ATS. Philly, New Orleans and the Raiders are the three teams 0-3 1H ATS this season.
➤Bucs are the 2nd team in the Wild Card era to start 3-0 with three 4th quarter comebacks, the Falcons did so back in 2015. Atlanta ended that season just 8-8 SU and 6-10 ATS. The most ironic thing about the Bucs late magic, they are also 0-3 against the 4th quarter spread this season with the three late comebacks. Tampa was 13-4 against the 4Q spread last season
➤Hurts is 24-13 SU on the road in his NFL career – he is 10-5 SU vs. teams below .500 SU and just 7-7 SU vs. teams above .500 SU on the road, including 2-4 SU in his last 6 games. This is noteworthy, because Hurts last week against the Rams moved to 18-0 SU at home vs. teams above .500.
➤In his career as a starter, Baker Mayfield is 7-11 ATS playing on a homestand (2+ straight home games). When the spread in the game is 7 or less, Baker is 4-10 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 3.6 PPG.
➤With the Buccaneers, Baker is 15-7 ATS as an underdog, covering the spread by 6 PPG. When Baker starts, the Bucs are 20-2 in a 6-point teaser when listed as an underdog. Since joining Tampa, Baker is the 2nd-most profitable QB ATS as an underdog, behind just Kyler Murray, who is 13-5 ATS in that spot.
➤Since Baker Mayfield arrived in Tampa Bay in 2023, the Bucs have had to play three games without Mike Evans, their production in a number of categories takes a dip.
With Evans, Without Evans
Points: 25.1, 23.3
Rush Yds: 120, 102.3
Pass Yds: 253.8, 215.3
➤Not a great sign. Bucs had 14 penalties last week and still figured out a way to come away with a win. In the Wild Card era, teams are 7-14 ATS in their next game following a SU win with 14+ penalties within the first four games of the regular season.
➤Eagles came away with a big comeback last week. Last decade, teams to comeback and win down 14+ points in their previous game are just 56-70 SU and 54-72-1 ATS (43%) in their next game, including 20-43 SU and 24-39 ATS when playing on the road.
➤The Texans are 0-3 SU and are big favorites this week – we’ll because they are also facing an 0-3 SU team in the Titans. In the last 30 years, we’ve only had three teams close -7 or higher while they were 0-3 SU or worse and all three teams failed to cover the spread:
2010 49ers, -9 vs. Raiders (W, 17-9)
2002 Rams, -12 vs. Cowboys (L, 13-10)
1996 Saints, -7.5 vs. Cardinals (L, 28-14)
The Texans are the only team in the last 20 seasons to start 0-3 despite allowing fewer than 55 points.
➤The Titans have now lost ten straight games at home ATS. Since the merger in 1970, six teams, including the Titans this year, have lost 10 consecutive home games ATS. No team has lost 11 straight home games ATS.
2024-25 Titans, 10
2012-13 Eagles, 10
1990-91 Packers, 10
1988-89 Cowboys, 10
1988-98 Washington, 10
1982-83 49ers, 10
Overall, the Titans ATS misery shows no bounds. They are…
2-14 ATS in their last 16 games
3-17 ATS in their last 20
6-23-1 ATS in their last 30
7-25-1 ATS in their last 33
Titans haven’t covered the spread in consecutive games since September of 2023 – over two years ago. Since that day, Tennessee is 8-26-1 ATS in their 35 total games.
➤CJ Stroud has made 39 starts in his NFL career and he is 11-8 ATS as an underdog and 7-13 ATS as a favorite. Stroud has only closed above a TD favorite once in his pro career – in November of last year at home vs. Titans, a 32-27 loss to Tennessee.
➤Stroud is having issues in the second half of games this year. His 3 INT are tied for an NFL high and his 65.4 passer rating in the 2H is the 5th-lowest mark in the NFL among qualified QBs.
➤So far this season, Texans are 0-4 in terms of scoring TDs in the red zone, the only team in the NFL without a touchdown inside the 20 – They are the 3rd team since division realignment in 2002 to not have a red zone score in the first three weeks of the season, joining the 2011 Jaguars and 2002 Bengals. 2011 Jags finished 5-11, while the 2002 Bengals went 2-14.
➤With the Texans offensive woes, Houston has opened the season 3-0 to the under, joining just the Falcons and Packers. In Stroud’s career as a starter, the under is 25-13-1 (66%) when he starts, the best mark to the under in the NFL since he was drafted.
➤Since 2015, we’ve had seven teams start 0-3 SU who had a win total of 9 or more entering the season, those teams are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in their 4th game in that span – last 0-4 SU team with that high a win total was Steelers and Giants back in 2013.
Teams to make the playoffs after starting 0-3:
2018 Texans
1998 Bills
1995 Lions
1992 Chargers
1982 Buccaneers
1981 Jets
➤Rams are coming off a massive blown lead against the Eagles where they led by 19 points at one point and lost. Teams to lead by 19+ pts, who were +3.5 or higher on the spread were 185-5 ATS over the last 20 years. Just a historic loss. Since 2014, teams coming off a blown loss of 14+ pts, win and cover about 45% of their next games, including 33-46-2 ATS (42%) when they play at home.
➤Matthew Stafford has finished below .500 against the second half spread in 7 straight seasons entering this year. His biggest issue though is with a lead. When Stafford’s team has a lead at the half, he is 9-30-1 2H ATS since 2019 and 2-17-1 2H ATS since 2022. This issue came to head last week against Philly.
➤Rams pass rush has been top notch so far, they are tied for the league lead in sacks with 12 with the Broncos and they are getting those sacks with just the 18th-highest pressure rate in the league. With Daniel Jones’ ability to run, he hasn’t done so bad against good pass rushes. When opposing defenses sack the QB at a rate of 4% or higher (Rams at 6% right now), Jones is 9-10 SU. Below that mark, he is 17-31-1 SU.
➤Rams have a good history playing on the east coast under Sean McVay, but after that – a bit of a dud. They are 17-25 ATS after playing on either the east coast or CST.
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 32-9 SU when listed as favorites and only 9-17 SU as underdogs.
➤Colts are the 13th team since 2020 to be undefeated SU in Week 4 or later and be listed as an underdog vs. a team not perfect on the season – those teams are 4-8 ATS.
➤Something new in store for Daniel Jones this week? He has faced off against Sean McVay twice in his career as a starter and the Giants scored a total of 20 points in those two games.
➤Might be an indoor thing. In his career, Daniel Jones is 9-3 ATS playing indoors and 29-33 ATS outdoors. As an underdog indoors, Jones’ teams are 8-2 ATS.
➤Common theme to recent Colts seasons. Under Shane Steichen, Indy is 18-8 ATS in September, October and November and 3-8 ATS in December or later. Steichen is tied with Dan Campbell more most ATS convers in November or earlier since the start of 2023.
➤The 49ers placed Nick Bosa on season-ending IR after a torn ACL. You could say Nick Bosa is important to San Francisco’s success, but here are his pass rush grade ranks for the 49ers by season over the last 5 years:
2025: 2nd
2024: 1st
2023: 1st
2022: 1st
2021: 1st
49ers are 57-28 SU in games Nick Bosa has played and are 6-12 SU without him since 2019.
➤The last time the Jaguars beat the 49ers outright, it was David Garrard defeating Alex Smith and the 49ers. San Francisco has won and covered five straight vs. Jacksonville since that 2005 game.
➤After a season of no takeaways, Jacksonville has changed their ways. They have nine turnovers on defense this year, the most in the NFL. The Jaguars played ten total games last season where their defense didn’t force a single turnover, most in the NFL.
➤This season, the Jaguars are 3-0 against the first half spread after going 6-11 1H ATS last season. It’s the second half they’ve had issues so far this year. Trevor Lawrence has a passer rating of 56.1 in the second half this year, worst mark in the NFL and in the 2H, Lawrence is completing just 50% of his passes.
➤The Jaguars have had an issue getting their best offensive skill players the ball. In three games, Travis Hunter has 10 receptions for 76 yards. Brian Thomas Jr. has just 7 catches for 115 yards – combined they have less receiving yards than Tre Tucker, the WR 2/3 for the Raiders.
➤The west coast hasn’t been the easiest road for the Jaguars through the years. Last 20 years, they’ve played in PST fifteen times and they are 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS in those games. The only worse ATS mark playing on the west coast in the last 20 years? Raiders at 79-96-3 ATS.
➤Over the years, Kyle Shanahan has had his battles against the Cardinals. After last week, he is just 8-9 SU against them. Shanahan also likes to see them in the rear view mirror. He is 11-4 ATS the game after facing Arizona, his most profitable prior opp. ATS. After the 49ers face an NFC West opponent under Shanahan, they are 29-16-1 ATS in their next game.
➤This will be the 7th installment of Patrick Mahomes against Lamar Jackson and Patrick is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the previous six games. In their three meetings in Kansas City, the Chiefs have won by 7, 5 and 3 points in each game, with the over going 3-0 in those games.
In their six career meetings, Mahomes is 6-0 against the first half spread against Lamar, covering the 1H spread by 8.8 PPG. In the second half, the Chiefs are just 2-4 on the second half moneyline in their four meetings.
➤Here we go again. Patrick Mahomes is listed as an underdog and a home underdog this week. As an underdog, Mahomes is 11-5 SU and 12-3-1 ATS as a starter. When Mahomes is -3 or shorter as a favorite, or an underdog, he is 28-12-1 ATS – but he’s lost three in a row ATS, twice this season.
Patrick Mahomes as Home Underdog Career
+2.5, 2022 vs. Bills (L, 24-20)
+1.5, 2025 vs. Eagles (L, 20-17)
➤Mahomes has closed as a home dog of 3 pts or more last in college with Texas Tech. It was November 5, 2016 against QB Shane Buechele and Texas (they were +3 and lost 45-37). In college or the pros, Mahomes has never won a game SU as a home underdog – he is 0-2 SU in the NFL and he was 0-7 SU in college at Texas Tech.
➤Mahomes has made 69 total home starts in his NFL career. He is 55-12 SU as a favorite and 0-2 SU as an underdog. When Mahomes is either an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal at home, he is 4-5 SU. He’s 51-9 SU in all other spots at home.
➤Ravens and Chiefs will be the 4th matchup in the last 15 years of teams who had a win total of 9 or more and are both under .500 SU entering Week 4. The underdog is 3-0 ATS in the previous three meetings. If you look at teams with a win total of 10+, this would be the 3rd such game in that span:
2025 Ravens (-2.5) at Chiefs
2022 Bengals (-7) at Cowboys, DAL won 20-17
2012 Saints at Packers (-7.5), GB won 28-27
➤The Ravens are off a SU loss entering this game against the Chiefs, losing 38-30 to the Lions on Monday Night Football last week. Lamar Jackson is 21-4 SU off of a Ravens loss in his career – as a favorite of less than 6 pts or an underdog off a loss, Lamar is 10-1 SU, only losing on the road to the Browns back in 2021.
➤When Lamar has had to play on the road on short rest, the Ravens are just 5-3 SU. In all other road games, Lamar is 29-13 SU in his career.
➤It’s never a shock to see a great record for Mahomes in any spot, but when his opponent is on short rest, the Chiefs are 18-3 SU
➤The Ravens own the longest active streak as a betting favorite with this week the streak being up to 21 games entering this week. Their last game as an underdog came back in Week 1 of last season vs. Chiefs.
➤In the last two regular seasons, the Ravens are 26-11 to their team total over, the best mark for any team in the NFL. If you just look at this year and last year, in Lamar Jackson’s 22 starts, the over in the full game is 17-5, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat. KC is 65-7 SU (90%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 30-0 SU in the last three seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals. On the other side, KC has lost five straight games when trailing at the end of the first quarter, their longest streak since 2015.
➤The story for Cowboys/Bears last week was the total staying under 50.5 after 38 combined pts in the first half. This was the 2nd game with 38+ 1H pts to go under total of 51 or less in the first 3 weeks — we only had 9 such games in the previous 25 years.
➤Last week, Caleb Williams had by far his best performance as the Bears starting QB. He had 4 pass TD, 0 INT and 298 passing yards – but most importantly, he had zero sacks.
➤Cowboys were the first team that didn’t sack Caleb Williams in a game that he played since Stanford on Sept. 9, 2023. Caleb in 19 NFL games prior to Week 3 was sacked 74 times (almost 4 per game) and was sacked in each of his 19 games. The Bears have only had one performance of 4+ TD, 0 INT, 0 sacks and this many pass yds prior to last week, Erik Kramer back in 1995.
The key for Chicago is doing it again. Since 2018, they are 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS the game after throwing 3+ pass TDs as a team.
➤The Ashton Jeanty experience through three weeks has been a bit confusing. He has gone under his rushing yards prop in all three games. Of his 47 total carries this season, he has gone for 1 yard or more in just 66% of them – only Zach Charbonnet has rushed more than five times with a lower pct on the season (63%).
➤In Week 18 of last year, the Bears ended a streak that almost seemed impossible. Prior to Chicago’s win on the road against Green Bay, the Bears had lost 20 consecutive road games played on a Sunday. Overall, Chicago is now 3-25 SU playing on the road on a Sunday dating back to 2021 – every other team in the NFL has at least six wins in that spot.
➤Raiders played on the east coast last week, facing the Commanders in Washington. Raiders are now 34-72 SU playing on the east coast since division realignment in 2002. How does Oakland/Vegas perform coming back home west? Not great. They are 22-34-2 ATS going EST to PST since 2003, the worst mark for any franchise in that span. If you combine the 49ers and Raiders in this spot, 41-65-3 ATS making the travel back west.
➤Packers have domianted this series in recent history. Dating back to 2009, Green Bay is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS vs. the Cowboys. If you look at Packers road games in Dallas, Green Bay has won five straight both SU and ATS on the road in Dallas. Tony Romo over Aaron Rodgers was the last Cowboys QB to win in Dallas back in 2007.
Between 2000 and 2025, Packers are 5-0 SU in Dallas. Between 1990 and 1999, Cowboys went 9-0 SU at home vs. Packers.
➤Amazingly enough, we haven’t seen the Packers play the Cowboys at night in primetime since 2010 – a rivalry 15 years in the making in primetime.
➤Under Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have only closed +7 or higher once at home in his 66 career starts in Dallas. Cowboys ended up closing +7 at home back in 2018 vs. the Saints and Drew Brees – Dallas upset New Orleans, 13-10.
➤Home underdogs of 7 pts or more, early season (games 1-9) cover close to 60% of games last 20 years. Those teams are 19-1-2 ATS last 3 yrs and 38-10-2 ATS since 2020.
➤Jordan Love and the Packers have played well in primetime lately. They’ve won three straight outright after starting 3-6 SU in Love’s first nine night starts. In Love’s last eight primetime games, he has only lost ATS once – Week 1 last season in Brazil against the Eagles.
➤Last week, the Packers are off a brutal loss. Not only were they between 7.5 and 8.5-pt favorites, but they led the Browns 10-0 entering the 4th quarter and blew it.
➤A sign of things to come? Packers were 2-0 SU, led 10-0 entering the 4th and blew the game last week. Since 1990, we’ve seen 23 teams who were undefeated SU and blew a 10+ point lead entering the 4th quarter – those 23 teams went 7-16 SU and 8-14-1 ATS in their next game, including 5-12 SU and 6-10-1 ATS when playing on the road.
➤In Jordan Love’s 39 career starts, last week was his 2nd career loss after leading by 10+ points entering the 4th quarter. In Aaron Rodgers’ career as the starter for the Packers, he only lost one career game in that spot.
➤Matt LaFleur is 20-12 SU and 19-13 ATS after SU loss as coach of the Packers. With Jordan Love as his QB though, he is just 5-8 ATS, with all other QBs he is 14-5 ATS (with Aaron Rodgers and Malik Willis).
➤Considering his workload last week, Josh Jacobs is coming off the worst game of his pro career. He had 16 carries for just 30 rushing yards, a 1.9 yards per carry mark – also his touchdown streak of 11 games came to an end against the Browns. Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 24-11 SU and 21-14 ATS the game after Green Bay rushed for under 100 total yards.
➤Something has to give. Jordan Love is just 4-9 1H ATS after a SU loss in his last game, including 2-5 1H ATS on the road in that spot. The Cowboys on the other hand have allowed 567 passing yards in the first half of their three games this year, most in the NFL. In those first halves, Dallas has allowed 4 pass TD with 0 INT and a completion pct of almost 77%, with 12.1 yards per attempt.
➤In Week 1, Packers tied 10-10 with the Lions in the 2nd half. In Week 2, they lost 15-13 to Washington and last week, they lost 13-7 to Cleveland. Love is 26-13 (67%) against the second half spread in his career, but he’s now lost two straight. Only once in his career has Jordan Love lost three straight 2nd halves ATS, back in 2023.
➤Cowboys have played three games without CeeDee Lamb since the start of the 2023 season and they are simply a different team without him.
With Lamb, Without Lamb
Points: 26.3, 13.3
Pass Yds: 262, 228
TDs: 2.4, 1.0
➤Tua Tagovailoa is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS vs. the Jets in his NFL career as a starter, beating New York by an average of 14.2 PPG in those matchups. In those five games, Tua has beaten four different Jets QBs (Flacco, Wilson, Rodgers, Boyle).
➤The Jets and Giants have played a combined 39 night games since the start of the 2019 season. They are a combined 5-34 SU in those games. Looking at the Jets themselves, they actually won their last primetime game, beating the Texans on Halloween last year. Jets haven’t won consecutive primetime games since 2017-18. On the road in primetime, the Jets have lost seven consecutive games at night, with their last win coming in 2018 against the Lions behind Sam Darnold.
Dating back to 2019, the Jets and Giants are a combined 1-16 SU on the road in primetime.
➤In Tua’s career as a starter, he has been at night in primetime a total of 15 times and Miami is 5-10 SU and ATS in those games. Since he was drafted back in 2020, that is the 3rd-worst ATS mark of 89 QBs, ahead of just Russell Wilson and Tom Brady.
➤At home in South Beach for a primetime matchup, Tua has started four games in his career – he is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games. Dating back to 2003, that is the most ATS home losses without a win for any QB at home in primetime.
➤Dating back to 2003, Tua’s 14-8-1 ATS mark vs. the AFC East is the 2nd-best in-division mark for the AFC East, behind only .. Tom Brady, who went 53-38-5 ATS vs. the division in that span.
➤From a record standpoint, the difference between Tua at home and the road is drastic. On the road or neural site, Tua is 13-19 SU, including 1-7 SU in his last 8 starts. At home, Tua is 25-9 SU in his career, including 18-6 SU vs. teams under .500.
➤For a second straight week, nothing represents the Jets more this week than a winless road underdog. Going back to 2000, winless road underdogs – teams who have no wins SU, who are listed as road underdogs – are 233-160-6 ATS (59.3%). This system includes a few other teams as well, including Titans and Saints.
➤The Jets history going to a backup QB is not pretty. In the last decade, New York is 9-35 SU, 16-27-1 ATS when having to play a backup QB, which includes a 3-8 ATS run going back into the 2023 season even after their cover last week against the Bucs.
➤The Jets are 0-3 SU. The Dolphins are 0-3 SU. This is the 4th primetime game in a team’s 4th game or later where both teams are winless on the season. All three home teams came away with the win in the previous iterations.
2020, Broncos at Jets, DEN (-1) W 37-28
2019, Bengals at Steelers, PIT (-4.5) W 27-3
2001, Washington at Cowboys, DAL (-2.5) W 9-7
When two winless teams face off dating back to 2004, the underdog in that matchup is 74-41-5 ATS (64%).
➤Part of the Jets struggles this season have surrounded their play on 3rd down. They have the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Texans and Giants, but over the last two weeks, they are 3-22 on 3rd down. The Jets’ ten 3rd down conversions is tied for 2nd-lowest mark in league behind just the Texans with nine.
➤Teams after facing Buffalo since Josh Allen’s 1st season as a full-time starter in 2019 are 43-59 SU (42%) and 44-57-1 ATS (43.6%) in their next game and Tua Tagovailoa is just 2-3 SU/ATS in that spot.
➤This will be the 4th start for Bo Nix at night in primetime – he is 2-1 SU/ATS, winning and covering in his only home night game against the Browns last season, also his only Monday Night Football start. In his three night starts, the Broncos are averaging 33.7 PPG in those matchups.
In that December, MNF matchup vs. Browns last year, Broncos broke an 8-game ATS losing streak for Sean Payton’s teams in home night games – they are 1-8 ATS since 2020.
➤You would assume that Denver has an incredible homefield advantage, especially in night games with that environment. Since 2017, Denver is just 4-8 SU and 3-8-1 ATS at home in night games. Amazingly enough, Denver has used seven different QBs in those 12 games – what matters most, Bo Nix won and covered his only start in that spot.
➤Let’s take a look at Sean Payton’s history facing a backup QB, which he is in Jake Browning this week – Since 2013, Payton has coached 26 total games against a backup QB and his teams are 20-6 SU and 15-11 ATS, including a 12-4 SU mark at home in those games.
➤Zac Taylor has coached three night games without Joe Burrow – he’s been an underdog in all of them, winning twice as a 10 and 14.5-point underdog.
➤We talk all the time about teams bouncing back after getting blown out – same goes for early in the game, too. In the Wild Card era since 1990, teams after trailing by 30+ at halftime of their previous game are 48-23-1 ATS (68%).
➤The Bengals got absolutely demolished last week, losing 48-10, with a margin of 38 points. Teams who lost by 28+ points and are then underdogs of 4 pts or more in their next game are 119-76-3 ATS (61%)
➤Broncos and Chargers are always a good, hard fought game. For Denver, they are 3-6 ATS in their next game after facing the Chargers since 2020.
➤Bo Nix did not look great last week. He had just 153 passing yards and in his 37 total plays on the field produced a success rate of 24.3%, worst mark of any starting QB in Week 3 by over 7%. The question is, can he bounce back? Unfortunately, Denver is just 1-5 ATS in the their six games with Bo Nix directly after his six other lowest passing yard outings, going 10-3 ATS in all other spots.
➤Jake Browning is 4-4 SU as the Bengals starter after the los last week. Bengals coach Zac Taylor is 45-32-1 SU with Burrow and 8-23 SU with all other QBs (Ryan Finley, Browning, Brandon Allen, Andy Dalton),
➤How valuable has Burrow and the offense been to Cincinnati? Since 2020, when the Bengals throw 2+ passing TDs, they are 40-14-1 ATS, when they throw one or fewer they are just 14-22-2 ATS.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Have the guts to bet the Saints or Bengals? Over a few key numbers after a bad loss. Enjoy.
Matches: NO, CIN
System: Tough spot for "bad" teams after pulling off an upset in their last game.
Matches: CLE, CAR, CHI
System: Let's look at winless road underdogs.
Matches: TEN, NO, NYJ
System: It was the Browns last week. If the Cowboys close +7 or higher, add them to the list.
Matches: DAL
System: Home dog unders have been a profitable trend recently.
Matches: Check current lines.
