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NFL Week 9 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

NFL Week 9 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer article feature image

Week 9 brings us some of the biggest spreads of the season with the Eagles, Bills and Chiefs all very chalky this week. Let’s look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.

Welcome to Week 9 of the Action Network’s NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, November 6, 10 a.m. ET.


1. The GOAT’s Worst Start…

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have lost 6 consecutive games against the spread entering their game this week against the Rams. This is the first, and only other time, Brady has lost 6 consecutive game ATS since the 2007-08 season.

Brady’s 2-6 ATS start is also the worst start of his NFL career.

Worst Against the Spread Start to a Season for Tom Brady…

  • 𝟐-𝟔 𝐀𝐓𝐒: 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐
  • 3-5 ATS: 2021, 2005, 2002

2. The “PTO” King

The Chiefs and Andy Reid are coming off a bye week entering Week 9.

With 13 days of rest or more, Reid is 27-6 SU and 21-12 ATS, including 21-3 SU and 16-8 ATS in the regular season. Reid at home off a bye is 17-2 SU and 12-7 ATS.

3. Where Has The Scoring Gone?

There have been 123 games so far in the 2022 NFL season. The under is now 72-51 (58.5%), the best win pct for the under through eight games since 1991.

The second-best start for the under in the last 20 years? Last year, when it started 68-56-1 (54.8%) through eight games.


Every NFL Game For Week 9 

Click on one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific game.


Click on a topic to skip ahead
Market Movers
Biggest Week 9 Line Moves
Sharp Report
How the Pros Are Betting Week 9
The Big Picture
Updated Betting Stats + Brady/Rodgers Long Futures
Action Audio
Best NFL Podcasts for Week 9
What’s Next?
Early Week 10 Betting Trends

Game-By-Game Breakdown

Eagles at Texans 
Channel: Amazon | 8:15 p.m. ET (THU)
Line: PHI (-14) | O/U: 45
Jalen Hurts, PHI
2022 Career Primetime
5-2 ATS
7-0 SU
14-12-1 ATS
16-11 SU
4-1 ATS
3-3 SU
Davis Mills, HOU
2022 Career Primetime
4-3 ATS
1-5-1 SU
9-9 ATS
3-14-1 SU
0-1 ATS
0-1 SU


+ Eagles are massive favorites on Thursday Night Football.

Largest TNF Road Favorites All-Time

-14, 2022 Eagles at HOU
-13.5, 2007 Colts at ATL, W 31-13
-10.5, 2019 49ers at ATL, W 28-25 

+ Jalen Hurts has played four games in his career on short rest. He’s 3-1 ATS, covering the spread by 4.6 PPG.

+ Hurts entered the year 30-1 to win Offensive Player of the Year; he’s now the +350 favorite.

+ Eagles have faced the Texans five times in franchise history. They are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.

+ Bills and Eagles are the only teams to be favored in every game this season.

Undefeated Eagles…

+ Teams who are 7-0 SU or better are 36-47-3 ATS (43.4%) over the last 20 years, including 3-9 ATS since 2018.

Those same 7-0 SU or better teams have failed to cover 5 in a row since 2015 when playing at night in primetime and are 1-7-1 ATS over the last decade.

Best First Half Team…

+ Eagles are now 7-0 against the first half spread this season. They become the first team to start a season 7-0 against the first half spread since the Carolina Panthers back in 2013.

Thursday Night Football Unders…

+ 22-14 since 2020 (5-3 this season)
+ The under is now 16-6 in the last 22 games on Thursday Night Football.



+ Davis Mills has played one game on short rest in his NFL career. It was also his only night game and only game on TNF — a 24-9 loss against the Panthers.

+ Week 9 is Mills’ 19th career start, all 19 as an underdog (9-9 ATS), with 14 of 19 starts as a TD underdog or higher (7-7 ATS). Overall, Mills is 3-14-1 SU career.

+ Eagles are 7-0 SU, while the Texans are 1-5-1 SU this season. In a team’s eighth game or later, this is the largest win percentage disparity in a primetime game over the last 20 years.

+ Texans are 2-12-1 SU in its last 15 games at home.


Colts at Patriots 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: NE (-5) | O/U: 40.5
Sam Ehlinger, IND
2022 Career Road (Career)
0-1 ATS
0-1 SU
0-1 ATS
0-1 SU
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
Mac Jones, NE
2022 Career Home (Career)
1-3-1 ATS
2-3 SU
11-11-1 ATS
12-11 SU
5-6 ATS
4-7 SU


+ Colts are 7-1 to the under this season, including 4-0 to the under on the road, with their last 7 road games going under the total.

Overall, 12 of the Colts’ last 13 games have gone under the total.

+ Underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 102-67-4 ATS (60.4%) since 2018.

+ Colts are now 0-8 against the first half spread this season and have lost 10 straight first halves ATS dating back to last year.

+ Colts are 150-1 to win the Super Bowl this season, their longest odds this year and longest odds overall since Week 15 of the 2019 season.



+ Six of the Patriots’ last 7 home games have gone over the total (8-4 to the over at home over the last 2 seasons).

+ Patriots were listed as a pick’em vs. the Colts on the lookahead line; New England is well above a field goal favorite now.

+ Bill Belichick is 28-9 SU and 24-12-2 ATS after facing the Jets over the last 20 years, including 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS since 2016.

+ Belichick is 31-10-1 ATS (76%) in games with a total below 40 over the last 20 years.

+ Belichick vs. Colts since 2010: 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS.

  • The Colts decided to bench Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger. That seemed like a good idea until you had just a 2nd-year QB facing Bill Belichick.

FWIW, as coach of the Patriots, Belichick is 25-6 straight up and 18-12-1 against the spread vs. rookie QBs, including 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS at home.

+ Patriots allowed 51 rush yards vs. the Jets last week. After good defensive rushing performances this season (allowing fewer than 100 rush yards), the Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their next game.

+ Patriots allowed 355 yards passing to Zach Wilson and the Jets last week. Since 2015, Patriots are 22-9-2 ATS the week after allowing 300+ pass yds.

+ Bill Belichick career with Patriots ATS:

  • With Tom Brady: 187-127-10 ATS
  • W/O Tom Brady: 40-38-1 ATS

» Return to the table of contents «


Bills at Jets 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: BUF (-11) | O/U: 45.5
Josh Allen, BUF
2022 Career Road (Career)
4-3 ATS
6-1 SU
41-28-4 ATS
48-25 SU
20-13-2 ATS
20-15 SU
Zach Wilson, NYJ
2022 Career Home (Career)
4-1 ATS
4-1 SU
9-9 ATS
7-11 SU
4-4 ATS
3-5 SU


+ Josh Allen is 41-28-4 ATS since his first start in 2018, the most profitable QB in the NFL (1 of 108 QBs).

+ Allen is 3-0 SU on the road vs. the Jets (2-1 ATS).

+ Bills and Eagles only teams to be favored in every game this season.

+ Bills are Super Bowl favorites. Opened the year at +600 at BetMGM and are now down to +230.

+ Bills last 4 road games have gone under the total (4-0 in 2022).



+ The Jets are 1 win away from going over their win total (5.5). The only two teams to go over their win total in Week 9 or earlier in the last decade? The 2017 Jets in Week 9 and 2013 Chiefs in Week 8.

+ This will be the second time Robert Saleh’s Jets will play consecutive division games. The last time was vs.  the Dolphins at home last year, New York lost 24-17.

+ Sauce Gardner is now the +175 favorite to win Defensive ROY; he opened at +1200 odds.

+ Jets points allowed the week after facing the Patriots under Saleh: 31 & 26.

+ Jets lost to the Patriots at home last week. Teams are 23-33-1 ATS the week after facing the Patriots since 2019.

How To Bet Zach Wilson…

+ Zach Wilson: 0-1 SU/ATS vs. Bills, lost 27-10.
+ Wilson is 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, covering by 8.9 PPG.
+ Wilson has faced 3 teams in his career allowing 17 PPG or less. Jets have scored: 16, 0, 6

+ The Jets are massive home underdogs against the Bills this week.

Jets Largest Home Spreads Last 40 Years

+14.5 – 2021, TB, L 28-24
+13.5 – 2021, BUF L 45-17
+13 – 2022, BUF
+13 – 2018, NE L 27-13


Dolphins at Bears 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: MIA (-4.5) | O/U: 45.5
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
2022 Career Road (Career)
4-2 ATS
5-1 SU
16-10-1 ATS
18-9 SU
6-5-1 ATS
7-5 SU
Justin Fields, CHI
2022 Career Home (Career)
3-5 ATS
3-5 SU
6-12 ATS
5-13 SU
2-6 ATS
3-5 SU


+ Tua Tagovailoa is 0-2 SU and ATS on a road trip (second road game or later) in his career, failing to cover the spread by 30.8 PPG.

+ Tua career vs. the NFC: 6-1 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 8.9 PPG.

Follow the line with Tua…

The Dolphins opened at -3 at the Bears and are now up to a 5-point favorite. When the line moves toward Tua (ex. -3 to -5), he’s won his last 8 starts, including going 6-2 ATS in those games.

+ The Dolphins are 13-4 straight up in their last 17 games overall.



+ The Bears are 4-26 on the moneyline as above a field goal underdog since 2019. They are 3-20 SU as a touchdown underdog or bigger since 2016.

+ It’s never good to allow a ton of points. Since 2015, teams to allow 45+ points in their last game are 33-45 ATS in their next game, including 14-25 ATS when that team plays at home.

+ Raiders and Bears lost by 20+ points back in Week 8. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20+ pts are 66-48 ATS in their next game, including 51-30 ATS when listed as an underdog.

Justin Fields Corner…

+ Justin Fields is 6-12 ATS as a starting QB, including 5-11 ATS as an underdog.
+ Fields vs. above .500 SU teams: 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS
+ Fields is 1-5 SU/ATS as a home underdog.

+ WEATHER: 15 MPH winds and potential rain in the forecast at Soldier Field.

Fields has played six home games with 10+ MPH winds: 2-4 SU/ATS, avg 16.3 PPG.


» Return to the table of contents «


Vikings at Commanders
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: MIN (-3) | O/U: 43.5
Kirk Cousins, MIN
2022 Career Road (Career)
3-4 ATS
6-1 SU
65-64-1 ATS
66-62-2 SU
34-30 ATS
26-37-1 SU
Taylor Heinicke, WAS
2022 Career Home (Career)
2-0 ATS
2-0 SU
10-9 ATS
9-10 SU
5-5 ATS
4-6 SU


+ Kirk Cousins goes back to Washington. He’s 16-13 SU, 14-15 ATS at FedEx Field.

+ Vikings have won 5 consecutive games SU, 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.

+ Kirk Cousins has never played a game for a team on a 5-game winning streak.

+ Vikings’ 5-game win streak is their longest since 2017 (8 straight).

+ Cousins is 26-36-1 ATS after a SU win in his career, including 15-28-1 ATS after a SU since 2017, the least profitable QB ATS in the NFL.

+ Vikings 6-1 or better starts dating back to 1990:

  • 2022: 6-1
  • 2009: 6-1
  • 2003: 6-1
  • 2000: 7-0
  • 1998: 7-0


+ The Commanders have won and covered 3 straight games.

+ Washington turns to Taylor Heinicke again this week. Washington backup QBs are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games since 2019.

+ With the Commanders’ 17-16 win over the Colts after closing +2.5, Taylor Heinicke improved to 8-2 ATS in his last 10 starts dating back to November 2021 (and one of those Ls was by just a half point).

+ Taylor Heinicke has covered 4 consecutive games against the spread.

+ No letdown in Ron Rivera: His teams are 50-42-1 ATS after a SU win, 10-6 ATS with Washington.

After a SU win as an underdog, Rivera’s teams are 24-9 ATS, making him the best coach in that spot over the last 20 years (covering 7 of his last 8).


Packers at Lions
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: GB (-3.5) | O/U: 49.5
Aaron Rodgers, GB
2022 Career Road (Career)
3-5 ATS
3-5 SU
134-96-5 ATS
153-81-1 SU
63-54-1 ATS
62-56 SU
Jared Goff, DET
2022 Career Home (Career)
3-4 ATS
1-6 SU
48-45-2 ATS
48-46-1 SU
22-22-2 ATS
24-22 SU


+ Aaron Rodgers has had his share of success vs. the Lions: 18-6 SU, 13-11 ATS.

+ Detroit’s defense has been pretty bad this year, so can Rodgers take advantage? Rodgers is 15-2 SU, 12-5 ATS vs. defenses allowing 30+ PPG in his career.

+ Packers have lost 4 consecutive games straight up.

+ November 20, 2016: the last time the Packers lost 4 consecutive games SU. Rodgers was the QB for all 4 games.

+ Packers’ 3-5 start is their worst since 2006, and their 4-game skid is their first since 2016.

Green Bay has started 3-5 SU or worse six times prior since 1990; they missed the playoffs in all six seasons.

+ Packers are 50-1 to win the Super Bowl entering Week 9, Green Bay’s longest odds to win it all since Week 15 of 2018, when they were 300-1 and lost to the Bears to fall to 5-8-1 SU.

+ The Packers and Bucs need to go 9-1 SU in their final 10 games to go over their preseason win totals.

+ The Packers opened the season with -450 odds to make the playoffs; they are +180 now.



+ The Lions have lost 5 consecutive games straight up.

Detroit has lost 4 straight games ATS for the first time since 2017.
Detroit is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games at home.

+ The over in Lions home games is now 4-0 this season. Detroit home overs are 20-8 since 2019 — the best home team to the over in that span.

+ Jared Goff career splits…

  • Favorite: 38-17 SU, 28-25-2 ATS
  • Underdog: 10-29-1 SU, 20-20 ATS

Of 120 QBs since 2016, Goff is ranked 117th in ML profitability as an underdog.


» Return to the table of contents «


Chargers at Falcons 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: LAC (-3) | O/U: 49.5
Justin Herbert, LAC
2022 Career Road (Career)
4-3 ATS
4-3 SU
20-19 ATS
19-20 SU
8-10 ATS
11-7 SU
Marcus Mariota, ATL
2022 Career Home (Career)
6-2 ATS
4-4 SU
32-37-2 ATS
34-37 SU
15-16-2 ATS
19-14 SU


+ Chargers are 3-0 against the spread on the road this season.

+ Chargers are currently 30-1 to win the Super Bowl, their highest odds to win it all this season.

+ Justin Herbert is just 4-4 SU/ATS in his career on extended rest (8+ days). On the road on extended rest, he is 0-2 straight up.

+ Chargers play on the road in Atlanta. That might be good for Justin Herbert…

Herbert by time zone in his career

  • ET/CT: 10-4 ATS
  • MT/PT: 10-15 ATS

+ Herbert has struggled in his career against the second half spread.

  • In 2022: 2-5 2H ATS
  • Career: 11-26-2 2H ATS (29.7%) – Least profitable QB 2H ATS since he was drafted (87 of 87 QBs).

+ Over/under currently sits under 50…

Chargers O/U result under Brandon Staley based on what the total is:

  • Under 50: 10-3 to over
  • 50 or more: 7-4 to under


+ Falcons started the season 6-0 ATS. Hasn’t been pretty for bettors since:

6-0 ATS teams last decade perform after hot start…

  • 2022 Falcons: 6-0 ATS -> 0-2 ATS
  • 2021 Cowboys: 6-0 ATS -> 7-5 ATS
  • 2018 Chiefs: 6-0 ATS -> 4-7-1 ATS

+ The Falcons are 1 win away from their win total (4.5). The only two teams to go over their win total in Week 9 or earlier in the last decade, as mentioned above, are the 2017 Jets in Week 9 and 2013 Chiefs in Week 8.

+ Chargers-Falcons features two defenses allowing 24+ PPG with a over/under below 50. Last 20 years with games in November or later, the under is 145-105-6 (58%) in those games, including 14-5 to the under last season.


Panthers at Bengals
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: CIN (-7.5) | O/U: 42.5
P.J. Walker, CAR
2022 Career Road (Career)
2-1 ATS
1-2 SU
4-1 ATS
3-2 SU
2-1 ATS
1-2 SU
Joe Burrow, CIN
2022 Career Home (Career)
5-2 ATS
4-4 SU
24-14 ATS
19-18-1 SU
10-7 ATS
10-7 SU


+ Panthers are 1-29 straight up and 6-24 against the spread when their opponent scores 17 points or more since 2020.

+ Since Oct. 1, 2021, Panthers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games.

+ Panthers have lost 7 consecutive games SU on the road.

+ With Panthers covering the closing number of +4, P.J. Walker is now 4-1 ATS as a starter in his career, covering by an average of 16.5 PPG.

Walker gets the start again for Carolina as a backup QB this week.

  • Panthers last 15 games with backup QB since 2019: 3-12 SU, 5-10 ATS
  • Overall, backup QBs this season have performed well: 18-20 SU and 22-16 ATS and 15-10 ATS as underdogs.

This week’s “backup QBs”: CAR, TENN and WAS



+ Joe Burrow on short rest: 3-1 SU/ATS. The Bengals are scoring 27 PPG on average in these four starts. Burrow is 3-0 SU on short rest at home.

+ Burrow has played 16 total games in his NFL career off of a straight up loss. He is just 8-7-1 SU, but 12-4 against the spread. His 12-4 ATS mark is the best in the NFL off of a SU loss since he was drafted in 2020.

+ Sunday will be the 10th time the Bengals will play a game coming off scoring less than 20 points in their previous game under Joe Burrow. Cincinnati is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in their next game, covering the spread by 6.7 PPG. In their last five games after a bad offensive output, they’ve averaged 31.4 PPG.

+ Burrow is now 0-4 straight up against the Browns. Good thing he is 4-0 ATS the week after playing the Browns.


» Return to the table of contents «


Raiders at Jaguars
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: LV (-2.5) | O/U: 48.5
Derek Carr, LV
2022 Career Road (Career)
3-4 ATS
2-5 SU
64-69-2 ATS
59-76 SU
33-34-1 ATS
26-42 SU
Trevor Lawrence, JAC
2022 Career Home (Career)
2-6 ATS
2-6 SU
7-18 ATS
5-20 SU
3-9 ATS
3-9 SU


+ Raiders are 0-4 straight up on the road this season, losing 5 straight games dating back to last year.

+ Raiders and Bears lost by 20+ points back in Week 8. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20+ pts are 66-48 ATS in their next game, including 51-30 ATS when listed as an underdog.

+ Raiders were shut out in their last game against the Saints. Teams after being shut out are 50-51-3 1H ATS in next game — 26-12 ATS on the road and 24-38-3 ATS when playing at home.

+ When teams score less than 10 points on the road and then play on the road again they are…

  • 77-60-6 1H ATS since 2005
  • 91-69-3 ATS since 2003

+ Six teams in the last decade have been shutout on the road and then played on the road again: they are 5-1 against the first half spread.

+ Derek Carr is 17-27-1 ATS on the road since 2017, the second-least profitable road QB ATS in that span (109 of 110 QBs).



+ Jaguars will play the Raiders this week after their London game without a bye week in between.

Only nine times in NFL history has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week — with opponent team totals going 7-2 to the over.

+ Jaguars are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games.

+ Jaguars home unders have won 5 in a row, going 11-2 since the start of last season.

+ Jaguars have lost 5 straight games SU and ATS entering this game against the Raiders.

+ Jaguars are 4-16 SU at home since 2020.


Seahawks at Cardinals
Channel: FOX | 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: ARI (-2) | O/U: 49
Geno Smith, SEA
2022 Career Road (Career)
5-3 ATS
5-3 SU
24-16-2 ATS
18-24 SU
10-8-2 ATS
6-14 SU
Kyler Murray, ARI
2022 Career Home (Career)
4-4 ATS
3-5 SU
28-25-2 ATS
25-29-1 SU
11-16 ATS
10-16-1 SU


+ Pete Carroll is 45-28-3 ATS (62%) as an underdog, including 18-10 ATS in the division.

+ Geno Smith: 17-10-2 ATS as an underdog, 7-6 ATS as a favorite.

+ As a duo, Pete Carroll and Geno Smith are 8-3 ATS as underdogs.

+ Seahawks are currently on a roll, winning and covering their last 3 games. Under Pete Carroll, they’ve been listed as an underdog only 3 times in total while on a 3+ game SU/ATS winning streak. Seahawks are 0-3 SU in those games.

+ Seahawks are receiving massive action according to Action Network data against the Cardinals. Early in the week, the bet and handle percentage for Seattle were as high as 80%.

+ Bills and Seahawks are only two teams top-11 in offensive, defensive and special teams DVOA according to Football Outsiders.

+ The Seahawks are 1 win away from going over their win total (5.5). The only two teams to go over their win total in Week 9 or earlier in the last decade, as mentioned above, are the 2017 Jets in Week 9 and 2013 Chiefs in Week 8.

+ Kenneth Walker is now the +150 favorite to win Offensive ROY; he opened at +2500 odds.



Let’s Start with Kyler Murray…

+ Kyler: 2-4 SU/ATS vs. SEA (lost 3 straight).
+ Kyler vs. NFC West: 5-14 SU, 6-11-2 ATS.

Now to Kliff Kingsbury…

+ Kingsbury is 9-15 ATS (38%) as a favorite, including 1-4 in the division and 5-11 ATS as a home favorite.

+ Cardinals tend to stay in games under Kingsbury vs. good offenses. They are 12-6-1 ATS vs. teams averaging 26 PPG or more, and 15-19-1 ATS vs. teams averaging fewer than that.

+ Kingsbury NFL career:

  • Home: 10-17-1 SU, 11-17 ATS
  • Road: 17-13 SU, 19-9-2 ATS

+ Cardinals have won only one of their last nine home games in this matchup, going 2-6-1 ATS and failing to cover by 9.2 points per game.

+ Cardinals are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games overall.


» Return to the table of contents «


Rams at Buccaneers
Channel: CBS | 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: TB (-3) | O/U: 42.5
Matthew Stafford, LAR
2022 Career Road (Career)
2-5 ATS
3-4 SU
87-105-4 ATS
93-102-1 SU
43-48-4 ATS
41-53-1 SU
Tom Brady, TB
2022 Career Home (Career)
2-6 ATS
3-5 SU
211-150-10 ATS
275-90 SU
109-72-7 ATS
152-32 SU


+ Rams head east to Tampa Bay after losing at home against the 49ers. Sean McVay is 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS coaching in the Eastern Time Zone.

When McVay’s teams travel from PT to ET they are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS.

+ Rams are 2-5 ATS to open the season, the worst ATS start for a reigning Super Bowl Champion since the Eagles in 2018 (also 2-5 ATS).

+ Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford as Underdogs:

  • 2022 at 49ers. +1.5 (L, 24-9)
  • 2022 vs. Bills. +1.5 (L, 31-10)
  • 2021 at Bucs. +3 (W, 30-27)
  • 2021 at Cardinals. +3 (W, 30-23)
  • 2021 vs. Bucs. +1 (W, 34-24)

+ Bucs bring in one of the best defenses in the NFL, allowing the sixth-fewest points. In Matthew Stafford’s career, he is 19-29 ATS vs. teams allowing less than 20 PPG, including 1-4 ATS with the Rams.

+ Rams are 40-1 to win the Super Bowl entering Week 9, their longest odds to win it all this season and longest odds for L.A. since being 50-1 in Week 1 of 2020.



After the Bucs’ loss on Thursday Night Football against the Ravens, Tom Brady gets some needed extended rest…

+ Brady on extended rest (8+ days) with Bucs: 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS
+ On extended rest career: 72-19 SU, 54-34-4 ATS
+ On extended rest at home career: 41-5 SU, 28-15-3 ATS
+ On 10+ days rest at home career: 28-2 SU, 19-9-2 ATS

+ With the Bucs, Brady is 0-3 SU/ATS vs. McVay (1-3 SU/ATS overall in his career).

+Just a lack of scoring from Tampa this year: Bucs’ team total overs are 1-7 this season.

+ Bucs are 25-1 to win the Super Bowl. They were as low as +700 entering Week 3.

Sports Odds History has midseason Super Bowl odds dating back to 2008. Brady has never been 25-1 or higher to win the SB prior to this week.

Prop Action…

+ Brady hasn’t thrown an INT since Week 1.
+ Brady has only gone over 1.5 pass TD once in last 9 starts.
+ Chris Godwin hasn’t scored a TD in his last 10 games.

+ Teams on 3+ game SU losing streak listed as favorites are covering at a 47.6% rate the last 20 years. When that team scores under 20 PPG? 72-89-4 ATS (44.7%).

+ Tom Brady is just one game above .500 ATS with the Bucs.

  • Brady w/TB: 24-23 ATS
  • Brady w/ NE: 187-127-10 ATS

+ Tom Brady against the spread by time of day with Bucs…

  • Day game: 22-12 ATS
  • Night game: 2-11 ATS

Titans at Chiefs
Channel: NBC | 8:20 p.m. ET
Line: KC (-12.5) | O/U: 45.5
TBD, TENN
2022 Career Road (Career)
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
Patrick Mahomes, KC
2022 Career Home (Career)
3-4 ATS
5-2 SU
44-35-2 ATS
63-18 SU
20-21-1 ATS
33-9 SU


+ Titans are on a 5-game straight up and against the spread winning streak currently.

It’s the fourth 5-plus game streak for the Titans over the last 20 years (‘22, ‘21, ‘08, ‘06).

+ Titans are 5-2 SU/ATS and big dogs this week. Only one other team has won and covered 70%+ of their games and been listed as this big of an underdog in October or later over the last 20 years, and that was the Chargers in the 2007-08 playoffs, +14 against the Patriots (L, 21-12).

+ Largest underdog for Titans under Mike Vrabel. Previous high was +10, done three times, with the Titans winning two of those games outright. Vrabel is 22-14 ATS as an underdog with the Titans.

+ Only three teams have been double-digit underdogs on a 5-plus game SU/ATS winning streak…

Largest underdog – Teams on 5+ game SU/ATS Streak last 20 years

+14, 2008 Chargers at NE, L 21-12 (playoffs)
+12, 2022 Titans at KC
+10.5, 2008 Chargers at IND, W 28-24 (playoffs)
+9.5, 2006 Redskins at SEA, L 20-10 (playoffs)

+ If Ryan Tannehill gets the start, here is his record at night in primetime:

  • Tannehill at night: 10-9 SU, 8-11 ATS
  • Tannehill as an underdog at night: 7-8 SU (+$674), 4th of 111 QBs on ML


+ The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in 4 straight home games. Kansas City is just 10-15 ATS at home since 2020.

+ Betting the Chiefs on a bounce back? Kansas City lost to the Titans 27-3 last season – since 2020, the Chiefs are just 6-7 ATS after a loss vs. that same opponent in their previous game.

Chiefs are coming off a bye last week…

+ Mahomes is 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS off a bye week (incl. playoffs): 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS when that game is at home and 2-0 SU/ATS at home off bye in the regular season.
+ Andy Reid off bye: 27-6 SU, 21-12 ATS – 21-3 SU, 16-8 ATS in regular season. Reid at home off a bye: 17-2 SU and 12-7 ATS.
(Bye week = 13 days of rest or more via Bet Labs)

Patrick Mahomes Rundown…

+ Mahomes in night games during his career: 16-7 SU and 13-9-1 ATS
+ When Mahomes is at home at night: 9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS
+ Mahomes has won & covered 4 straight Sunday Night Football starts
+ Mahomes at home as TD or higher favorite: 22-3 SU, 12-12-1 ATS


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Ravens at Saints
Channel: ESPN | 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: BAL (-2) | O/U: 47
Lamar Jackson, BAL
2022 Career Road (Career)
4-4 ATS
5-3 SU
32-29 ATS
43-18 SU
19-11 ATS
21-9 SU
Andy Dalton, NO
2022 Career Home (Career)
3-2 ATS
2-3 SU
79-71-6 ATS
78-76-2 SU
40-34-3 ATS
45-31-1 SU


+ In their 3 losses, the Ravens (3-3 SU) have only trailed for 120 total seconds.

+ Ravens are 0-8 on the fourth quarter spread this season.

How To Bet Lamar Jackson…

+ Lamar Jackson vs. NFC: 13-1 SU, 6-8 ATS
+ Lamar has thrown an INT in 9 of his last 13 games.
+ Lamar has scored a rush TD in just 3 of his last 22 games.
+ Lamar as favorite: 36-13 SU, 22-27 ATS | as underdog: 7-5 SU, 10-2 ATS
+ Lamar: 13-18 ATS at home, 19-11 ATS on road

Keep in Mind the First Half…

+ Lamar against the first half spread: 37-22-2 ATS – #2 QB of 235 total QB in first half spread profitability  (#1 is Joe Flacco)

Lamar is 20-9-1 against the first half spread on the road in his career.



Saints are on extended rest this week on Monday Night Football…

+ Saints on extended rest: 14-4 SU, 8-10 ATS since 2017
+ Saints at home on extended rest: 26-12 SU, 18-20 ATS

+ Andy Dalton has struggled in his career in primetime. He is 6-19 SU and 9-16 ATS. His 9-16 ATS mark makes him the fourth-least profitable QB ATS at night over the last 20 years.

+ This will be the Saints’ fourth primetime game as home dogs since 2020; they are 0-3 SU/ATS.

Overall, the Saints have lost five straight home primetime games straight up and against the spread since the start of 2020.



Market Movers 


For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.

Biggest NFL Week 9 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 9)

(+2)
77% of bets at Cardinals
(-2.5)
61% of bets at Jaguars
(-11)
60% of bets at Jets

Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 9
(The most popular bet games for Week 9, excluding Thursday Night Football)

(+4.5)
54,000 betting tickets
(+3)
49,000 betting tickets
(+11)
46,000 betting tickets

Biggest Line Moves in Week 9

Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines):

(-6 to -12.5)
6.5-pt move vs. Titans
(0 to -5)
5-pt move vs. Colts
(+7.5 to +3)
4.5-pt move vs. Chargers

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The Sharp Report


PRO Report

Sharp bet
Buccaneers -3 | Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Bet %
TB: 58% of Bets
Handle %
TB: 89% of Handle

If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.


Our model’s odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.


PRO Systems

No systems yet for Week 9.

PRO Props

Top Props for Week 9: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Bet: Under 9.5 rush attempts (-110)

Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.

How to use the Action Network’s PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.


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The Big Picture


The Stat Sheet: Every week we will update 1st quarter, 1st half, full game and other trends for all 32 teams to help you easily navigate each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

Super Bowl Movers: Entering Week 9, both the Buccaneers and the Packers have reached their longest odds to win it all in a long time…

SB: 25-1 (Longest odds for Brady since 2008)


SB: 50-1 (GB longest odds since 2018)


Super Bowl Futures: Let’s look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.


2022 Season Betting Update
1.
Touchdowns Are Down!
TDs Through 8 Weeks Last 3 Seasons:
2022: 600
2021: 665
2020: 692
2.
Divisional Unders
Unders are 28-12 in NFL division games this season.
Best start for divisional unders in the last 20 years.
Week 9 matches: GB/DET, BUF/NYJ, SEA/ARI
3.
The Favorites
Only two NFL teams have been listed as a favorite in each of their games this season: the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles.
4.
Big Favorites
Favorites of 7 pts or more: 18-8-1 SU, 10-17 ATS
+The least profitable start for TD favorites since 2004.
5.
The Public
(Public = 51% of tickets or more)
51%+: 52-66-1 ATS
60%+: 24-31 ATS
66%+: 12-17 ATS
+ The worst start through 8 games for the public in the last 20 years.

For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.


We’re Off To The East Coast…

The Raiders, Chargers and Rams all play on the East Coast this week.

Let’s take a look at two profitable trends for West Coast teams playing on the East Coast recently.

Mountain or Pacific time zone teams to play on the road on the East Coast after playing their last game at home are 80-58-2 (58%) ATS in the last decade, including 4-0 ATS this season. This works for the Chargers and Rams this week.

Overall, MT/PT teams playing in ET are 57-31-1 ATS (64.8%) since 2019. This works for the Chargers, Raiders and Rams this week.


We’ve Hit The Middle Point…

 

We’ve reached Week 9, which is the middle point for the NFL. Let’s dive into a few ways to profit later in the season…

+ Avoid the bad teams now. Teams with a win percentage of 40% or less facing a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher in Game 8 or later are just 159-188-11 ATS in the last decade.

Week 9 matches: Texans, Bears, Cardinals and Saints

+ Ride or fade the surprise team? Teams to win and cover at least three consecutive games who didn’t make the playoffs the previous year are 172-149-8 ATS (53.6%) the last 20 years. In games 1-7, they are 45-46-1 ATS. In games 8-18, they are 127-103-7 ATS. In November specifically, these teams are 70-38-3 ATS.

Week 9 matches: Seahawks and Commanders

+ Ride home division dogs? This season, home divisional underdogs are 9-5 ATS, and since 2020, they are 54-39 ATS.

Week 9 matches: Lions and Jets

+ Age Setting In? There are ten QBs this season age 33 or older. Combined, they are just 25-34 against the spread:

Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers, Brian Hoyer, Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady.


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Action Audio 

The Favorites Podcast: After an 8th consecutive winning week in their pick’em contest to start the season, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are riding high. Together they break down every game on the NFL Week 9 slate, making their Simon Says, Foxhole and Executive Decision bets, along with leans on every other game on the board.

Action Network Podcast:

We’ve reached the halfway point of the NFL regular season, and Action Network hosts Stuckey and Chris Raybon return once again to break down all their favorite sides, totals, teasers and more for this weekend’s slate. Together they talk about a Tom Brady bounceback against a lifeless Rams team, taking a chance on Kliff Kingsbury, and so much more.

For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.


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What’s Next?

Week 10 Trends

Seahawks/Buccaneers

+ Favorites of over a FG overseas are 16-4 SU, 12-8 ATS.

+ In 35 international games, favorites are 27-9-1 SU, 23-14 ATS.

+ Tom Brady’s 4th game overseas: 3-0 SU/ATS. Covering by 20.3 PPG, winning by a combined score of 113-22.

Chargers/49ers

+ Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday Night Football

2021-now: 0-3 SU/ATS

2016-20: 4-0 SU/ATS

+ Jimmy G by time zone: PST/MST: 18-17-1 ATS | CST/EST: 16-6 ATS

+ Jimmy G by rest, 8 days or more: 7-3 ATS

+ Justin Herbert has played on road in PST twice, both battles: 35-32 loss to Raiders, 30-27 win against Raiders.

+ Herbert is 1-7 against 2H spread in primetime in his career.

Commanders/Eagles

+ Hurts’ 3rd career MNF start. Won at home vs. Vikings, lost on road in Cowboys.

Night game: 4-2-1 ATS. Won 4 straight SU.

+ 8-0 SU or better teams are 99-53 SU, 62-85-5 ATS (42.2%) over the last 20 years, including 24-37-1 ATS (39.3%) over the last decade.

+ In the last 20 years, 28 different teams who were 8-0 SU or better played a game on at least 10 days rest, they are just 15-13 SU and 8-20 ATS.

+ In the last 20 years, 38 different teams who were 8-0 SU or better played a game in primetime, they are 23-15 SU but just 13-23-2 ATS.


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