NFL Player Props: Week 9 Pick for Geno Smith in Seahawks vs Cardinals
Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Geno Smith.
- Sean Koerner moves lines in the NFL player props market.
- He has seven picks on Sunday afternoon in Week 9.
- Check out his bets and breakdowns below.
Garrett Wilson is coming off of his best game with Zach Wilson under center, going for 6/115/0 against the Patriots. It was the first time he’s cleared this number with Zach Wilson, and it came in a game in which the second-year QB attempted 41 passes and threw for 355 yards.
This week, the Jets have a brutal matchup against the Bills, and they will likely lean on their defense and run game in an attempt to keep it close. The matchup for the rookie wideout could be even more daunting if Tre’Davious White is able to make his season debut, as he was recently taken off the IR and returned to practice.
I’m projecting Wilson closer to 4.1 receptions and a 60% chance of staying under this number. I would bet down to -135.
Matt Eberflus has stayed true to his word in going with the “hot hand” at RB over the past few weeks, as Khalil Herbert has seen his rushing share go up in each of the past four games.
Herbert continues to outplay David Montgomery as 18.7% of his rush attempts have gone for 10-plus yards. Herbert, who also benefits from the threat Justin Fields provides as a runner, has a no-nonsense style on the ground and he is able to find holes that defenses provide.
The Dolphins have been stout against the run, but they will have their hands full with the Fields/Herbert combo. Safety Jevon Holland has been burned by opposing RBs a few times this year after taking the wrong angle of attack.
This whiff against Dalvin Cook (happens at 0:13 in the clip below) is the perfect example of what I’m referring to, and these are the type of run plays we have seen from Herbert time and time again this year.
.@dalvincook knows how to score a TD in Miami 🤩
Let’s take a look back at all his touchdowns against the Dolphins over the years 👇 pic.twitter.com/1nacZFIUKT
— Minnesota Vikings UK (@UKVikings) October 18, 2022
I’m projecting Herbert closer to 45.5 yards as I think he will continue to see 30-35% of Chicago's rush attempts.
Based on sharp action in this game and our Luck Rankings indicating the Bears are likely to keep this close, it should help ensure he sees enough carries to clear this number. I would bet it up to 39.5.
Obviously, Tyler Boyd is going to see an increase in targets with Ja’Marr Chase out, but this number is a tad high given Boyd still has to compete with Tee Higgins, Hayden Hurst and Joe Mixon.
It’s also a game in which the Bengals may be a bit more balanced on offense as 7.5-point home favorites.
Boyd’s 78% catch rate should regress closer to 68-69% going forward. I’m projecting him closer to 4.8 receptions with a 65% chance of staying under 5.5. I would bet down to -150.
With J.D. McKissic ruled out, Antonio Gibson should see an uptick in routes. He’s seen a target on 44% of his routes with Taylor Heinicke under center the last two games. That’s an unsustainable number, but he should still dominate passing-down usage.
It’s also a plus matchup as he faces a Vikings defense that uses zone coverage at the second-highest rate. Gibson's yards per route run (Y/RR) increases from 1.79 against man to 2.26 against zone. I’m projecting his median closer to 27.5 yards.
Under 253.5 Passing Yards (BetMGM)
It’s a tricky matchup for Smith today since the Cardinals are very good against opposing Nos. 1 and 2 receivers, ranking first and fifth. Arizona is bottom two against running backs and tight ends, though, so they matchup well against the Seahawks, having held Smith to just 197 yards a few weeks ago.
Big-play-threat Marquise Brown is out for Seattle, with Dee Eskridge taking most of his snaps. Eskridge has a low aDot of just 4.1, so that lowers Smith’s projection a bit.
I’m projecting Smith closer to 239.5 and would bet this to 250.5.
Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Thornton gets a boost with DeVante Parker out, but this is still a tad too high.
Thornton saw a boost with Bailey Zappe under center, but he hasn’t been as involved when Mac Jones has been healthy.
This should be a conservative game plan from the Patriots, as well, with Bill Belichick likely having a strategy ready to frustrate Colts rookie QB Sam Ehlinger.
I can’t imagine the Colts are able to put up many points here, further hurting Thornton’s upside. I’m projecting his median closer to 27.5 receiving yards.
Under 23.5 Pass Completions (-105, BetMGM)
The Lions run the ball at the fifth-highest rate on early downs in neutral situations, and they usually have to abandon it since they’re 1-6 and usually playing from behind.
However, Detroit should be able to keep this game close against a Packers defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the run. Also, the Lions traded T.J. Hockenson and will be without WR Josh Reynolds in the passing game.
Also, Green Bay plays at a snail’s pace and allows the second-fewest plays per game.
All of these factors point toward this staying under the total. I’d bet it to -125.