The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots are set to play for it all in Super Bowl 60. Kickoff is set for in 6:30 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. Patriots vs Seahawks will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Seahawks are favored by -4.5 with the over/under set at 45.5 total points. Seahawks is a -227 favorite to win outright, while Patriots is +190 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Patriots vs. Seahawks predictions in my Super Bowl preview.
Patriots vs Seahawks Predictions
- Seahawks vs Patriots pick: Seahawks -4.5 (-115)
My Patriots vs Seahawks best bet is the Seahawks to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Patriots vs Seahawks Odds
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -227 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
Patriots vs Seahawks Super Bowl Preview
Seahawks Betting Preview: Seattle's Game to Lose?
There was certainly some doubt headed into the playoffs, but by now it is abundantly clear that the Seahawks are the best team in football. They lost just three times all season by a combined margin of nine points, and those came against two playoff teams in the 49ers and Rams and the respectable Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It's not really worth re-hashing all the things Seattle excels at, but the key to understanding this game is understanding the battle up front.
The Seahawks have run the ball on half of their plays, which is the second-highest mark in football, and while they came away with just 4.1 yards per tote this year, they sit a respectable 14th in DVOA. Of course, you generally run when you're beating the brakes off the rest of the teams, but we can see that even past the regular season the Seahawks' 50% pass frequency on first down ranks fourth-lowest of all the teams in the playoffs.
Now that we've covered that, it's a good time to note that the Seahawks rank fifth in EPA on the ground this postseason, bringing their average up a half a percentage point, which is quite significant in the grand scheme of things. For context, they ranked just 22nd in this category during the regular season.
It's been largely due to the talented Kenneth Walker III, who's averaged 4.7 yards per carry to lead all playoff running backs other than Travis Etienne, who carried the ball just 10 times for 67 yards.
The other side of the ball has been very similar for the Seahawks in terms of play frequency, but that doesn't mean this defensive line isn't every bit as good as the numbers they've posted against a smattering of runs. They've ranked fourth in EPA against the rush these playoffs with a figure that's very close to the league-leading mark from the regular season, and have still allowed just a 37.2% success rate.
New England loves to run, and has done it well, but Seattle leads the NFL with 3.8 yards allowed per carry and won't offer the same kind of generosity we saw out of the Chargers and Texans in the first two rounds.
Patriots Betting Preview: Mayeday
The Patriots defense is ranked second only to the Seahawks' by Pro Football Focus, though there are certainly some that will argue they're much worse than that. Whether it was the strength of schedule during the regular season or their sputtering run defense as the year went on, I certainly don't see this unit as being anywhere as skilled as Seattle's.
That's not to say they can't impact this game.
The Patriots may have finished 16th in EPA allowed per rush, but they had a meteoric rise through the first three rounds in ranking second among all playoff teams with a mark of -0.254 that would have led the league during the regular season. On the year, they ranked just 10th in yards allowed per rush but were second in rushing touchdowns allowed per game and fourth in total yards.
They've been vulnerable in the red zone with the 23rd-worst touchdown-scoring rate on defense, but in ranking ninth on third down and second on fourth down, they've effectively held their opponents out of that area of the field.
Another thing to keep an eye on here is New England's 13th-best interception rate, which should be of use against Seattle, which has given the ball away the second-most in the NFL. Of course, the Patriots also rank sixth in takeaways, so they managed to find a way to finish with a positive turnover margin.
On offense, we're going to be watching Drake Maye try to persevere in the face of pressure — something he's done all year. I don't mean, like, figurative pressure in the biggest game of his life, I mean actual down linemen running at his face.
The Seahawks rank third in pressure rate this season, and while Maye had a solid 92.7 passer rating under pressure this year, according to PFF, the Patriots rank among the worst in sack rate.
So, while the Patriots may not turn the ball over a ton in these scenarios, they're still succumbing to sacks — and that number has grown to a playoff-high 15 through three games.
Sam Darnold, meanwhile, has been sacked just five times.
Patriots vs Seahawks Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Patriots will need to find a way to win the battle on the line in order to triumph.
The Seahawks' pass rush and secondary have been magnificent this season, and on offense they've dominated so much through the air that I didn't even find it relevant to mention. New England's defense has been solid against both phases of the game by the counting stats, and while it didn't rank quite as highly by the metrics, those same metrics have been incredibly kind to them during the playoffs.
The question is just how much of this is real. We have just a three-game sample, and while one game featured a quarterback in C.J. Stroud who put on a horrific performance, another was played in snow which made passing almost impossible — though that's something that Jarrett Stidham finds true even in the nicest of conditions.
I'm choosing to believe that New England's pass defense isn't this good, though on the line they've come up with a playoff-best 12 sacks. Fortunately, they've got just two interceptions to go along with them and will need to turn the ball over that way given the strength of Seattle's line in pass protection.
That brings us back to the crux of this guide, which is the battle on the ground.
The Patriots were rendered ineffective by the Broncos' run defense (and the snow) in the AFC Championship Gmae, and prior to that they managed just 3.3 yards per carry against a sound Texans defense. Seattle's performance hasn't looked as impressive on paper, but when you consider the offenses in its way and the fact that it's maintained its same elite metrics from the regular season, there shouldn't be a lot of fear.
I'd bet on Seattle continuing to pound the rock as the Patriots' inflated numbers on defense come back to Earth, and I don't feel very confident in New England's offense if it's going to be forced to pass all game long just like the many victims the Seahawks have taken this year.
Pick: Seahawks -4.5 (-115)
Patriots vs Seahawks Player Props
Mack Hollins Receiving Yards
Matchup be damned, we've got to go for a home run hitter.
The Patriots had the third-most pass attempts of 20 or more yards on average this season, and while Seattle ranked a fair ninth in completion percentage allowed, this has been a massive problem in the playoffs as opponents have gone 7-for-15 on throws 20 or more yards downfield.
Now, I'm going to put my personal distaste for Mack Hollins as a longtime Jets fan to the side and bet on him here.
Why? Well, he's our perfect candidate to rack up some yards.
First off, Hollins was targeted deep downfield 12 times during the regular season, a number that's second to Stefon Diggs' 13 targets, but Hollins' team-high 18.5% deep-target rate is by far the highest on the team. He hauled in only four of them, but he's 1-for-2 in the split through three weeks of the playoffs.
On top of that, Hollins was also targeted a team-high 22 times when Maye was facing pressure, and we have hit on the potential struggles for the Patriots' line up front in pass protection.
Pick: Mack Hollins Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
Jake Bobo Anytime Touchdown; Receptions
I only went anti-homer to begin this so I could make what's definitely a homer pick with Jake Bobo.
I watched him play for that talented UCLA team, and I've anticipated every opportunity he's gotten with Seattle. What's evident is that the coaching staff is beginning to love him.
Bobo's snap share during the season was just above 10%, but that number grew over 14% in the red zone — and through two playoff games he's now up over 20% in snaps played in the red zone.
Bobo's only run four routes, but he's been open in the end zone three times by my count and hauled in a touchdown against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game.
You love taking a hard-working run blocker who's slowly earned some more playing time in a game like this. Both teams will throw the kitchen sink on offense, and Bobo is a sleeping giant ready to make a big impact.
I feel taking him to score is a far more +EV bet here given he's projected to maybe get one catch, and that he's spent the majority of his time on the field around the red zone.
Picks: Jake Bobo Anytime TD (+1000), Jake Bobo Over 0.5 Receptions (+156)
Drake Maye Rushing Yards
Quite possibly my favorite pick on the board is Maye's rushing total, which surely can't be an unpopular bet. Still, I see plenty of value to be found in this number.
We have covered numerous times now, including in this section, that Seattle is going to bring pressure and that the Patriots have allowed a ton of rushers into the backfield. That means Maye will be influenced to take off and scramble, just as Matthew Stafford and Bryce Young did in the last two rounds. Seattle's allowed a 9.2% scramble rate in the playoffs, second to the Chargers and Broncos, and during the regular season it allowed the 10th-highest.
Now, Maye himself ranked second this year in scramble rate on offense, a testament to his running ability, and while he did hit this number just five times during the regular season, two of those games came in Weeks 15 and 18.
He's eclipsed the number twice through three playoff games, the exception being the win over the Texans, and Seattle's defense profiles similarly in its ability to flush the pocket. I would go even higher than this, honestly.
Pick: Drake Maye Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
