Rams vs Cardinals Odds, Picks, Prediction for Week 3
John McCoy/Getty Images. PIctured: Cooper Kupp.
- The Rams are favored on the road against the Cardinals in Week 3.
- Both teams won last Sunday and enter this game 1-1.
- Cody Goggin breaks down the game and makes a betting pick.
Rams vs. Cardinals Odds
|Moneyline||-194 / +162|
|Time||Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel.|
In the first NFC West divisional matchup of the season for both of these teams, the Los Angeles Rams travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals.
Both teams were terrible in Week 1 but got back on track in Week 2 following strong offensive showings. It could be possible that those performances are replicated again and we see these teams light up the scoreboard.
Rams vs. Cardinals Matchup Analysis
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Rams vs. Cardinals DVOA Breakdown
The Rams started the season a bit rocky against the Bills, but it looks like they'll be fine after last week’s showing against the Falcons. Against Atlanta, Matthew Stafford averaged 0.18 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, gained 59.4% of their available yards and the Rams had a 80% series conversion rate.
The Rams were particularly strong through the air and had a 65th percentile success rate.
Los Angeles’ injury report isn’t promising for its defense. Cornerback Troy Hill is on the injured reserve, and safety Jordan Fuller is listed as questionable. If Fuller can't go, this will take one of the most important players out of the Rams secondary. He was second among players in the Rams secondary last season with a 69.4 Pro Football Focus (PFF) coverage grade, behind only Jalen Ramsey.
The Rams defense ranks just 21st this season, according to PFF, and it's carried by a strong pass rush. Arizona does have the eighth-highest team pass blocking grade this season, so Los Angeles' edge there may be neutralized.
After having most of their team decimated by injuries in Week 1's embarrassing loss to the Chiefs, the Cardinals are starting to get healthier. The only potentially impactful injury is James Conner, who is going to be a game-time decision with an ankle injury.
I doubt that Conner’s injury will affect the offensive output of the Cardinals much. If it does, it will likely be positive since they'll pass more on early downs.
The Cardinals did even better than the Rams offense in Week 2. Despite some early struggles, the Cardinals had an 82.4% series conversion rate and a 51% offensive success rate.
The Raiders didn’t have a terrible game themselves against Arizona. Las Vegas had a 74.1% series conversion rate in Week 2 and was able to move the ball just fine. While the Raiders didn’t dominate Arizona as the Chiefs offense did in Week 1, they did show that it is possible to move the ball against this defense and their banged-up secondary.
The Arizona secondary ranks dead last in the league with a PFF coverage grade of 36.9. No other team is below 40, and only three other teams are below 50. Part of this is due to the lack of talent and injuries on the back end of the defense, but it’s also due to the lack of pass rush. The Cardinals have the 22nd-ranked pass rush by PFF this season after losing Chandler Jones on the edge from a season ago.
Overall, the Arizona defense is ranked as the worst in the league so far by PFF with a 45.3 defense grade.
Both teams should be able to move the ball in this game. Arizona ranks seventh in the league in pace (seconds per play) while the Rams rank 11th, which means putting points on the board should be even easier.
In the last three seasons, four of the six regular-season games that the Rams and Cardinals have played have gone over 50 points. In fact, the only game between these two teams in the last five matchups that didn’t have over 50 points scored was the Week 17 matchup of 2020 that saw Kyler Murray leave early with an injury and John Wolford start under center for an injured Jared Goff.
When these teams have been at full strength, there has been an average of 54.4 points scored over those other five games in the last three years.
My personal model projects the total for this game at 50.4 points, which is over the current total of 48.5. The duo of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson will have a great opportunity to put up big numbers against this depleted Arizona secondary, and the Cardinals offense will also be capable of striking back to potentially keep this game close.
I’ll be taking the over at 48.5 points and would play this up to 49.5 points, giving about a point buffer between that number and my projection.
FanDuel Quickslip: Over 48.5 | Bet to 49.5