Rovell: You Need to Fade Tom Brady Tonight on Thursday Night Football
Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quarterback Tom Brady
Will the real Tom Brady come back tonight?
Or will his dismal run finally come to an end?
That’s essentially what bettors are wagering on if they chose to take a side for Thursday Night Football’s Ravens vs. Bucs.
On one side? The “History says he’ll be back” argument. Over the last 20 years, when Brady has lost two in a row — as he has coming into tonight — he has always won the third.
And in the game after he fails to cover as at least a 14-point favorite — which happened last Sunday — he’s 22-3 against the spread (ATS) and has covered his last 13 in a row.
On the other side? It’s over for him as a football player. The “He made the wrong decision to come back” crowd. He doesn’t have Gronk. He’s reportedly getting divorced. It’s all downhill from here.
The only data that matters for the latter isn’t way back history — it’s the now. Pro Football Focus reports that only Matt Ryan, who was just replaced, has had more passes under-thrown, thrown behind, slightly low or slightly behind than Tom Brady this season.
He has also been releasing the ball faster this year than any other year. His offensive line isn’t up to snuff anymore. All Universe left guard Ali Marpet retired before the season and Pro Bowl center John Jensen is likely out for the year.
These past few weeks have been the beginning of the end for Brady and tonight continues that trend.
The sharps have been holding the Buccaneers at -2, which means I can make myself even more comfortable by going to BetMGM and taking the Ravens at +3 (-135).
That’s the market-best price for alt lines at Ravens +3. The regular spread is a consensus Ravens +2 as of Thursday night.
Don’t outsmart yourself. Go with the better team and fade Tom Brady.