Sportsbook Exec Explains How Bettors Beat Oddsmakers to News of Tom Brady’s Return From Retirement
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady
Last Thursday, on the SuperBook’s app in New Jersey, a bettor made a sizeable wager on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl at 60/1 odds.
When Jay Kornegay, the vice president of trading for the book, reviewed the bet, he thought it was a bit odd. When reviewing bets by the bettor, Kornegay determined he wasn’t a recreational player.
Especially not without Tom Brady.
Sure enough, later that day, with little fanfare, other sizeable bets came in on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl, including at the South Point and the Circa in Las Vegas.
The South Point took big bets on odds of 50/1, 30/1 and 25/1, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
“Joe Blow doesn’t wake up one morning and say, ‘You know what? I’m going to put $20,000 on the Bucs to win the Super Bowl,'” Kornegay said. “And after they put that down, they don’t say, ‘Let’s see if I can get down another $30,000 or $50,000 somewhere else.'”
By the end of Thursday, the Bucs Super Bowl odds were as short at 12/1.
“It all seemed pretty coordinated,” Kornegay said. “It didn’t come out of nowhere and it was very suspicious based on how it all came in.”
On Sunday night, an hour after the NCAA Tournament bracket came out, Tom Brady announced he was unretiring after 40 days.
All of a sudden, it made sense to Kornegay.
“I know the NFL talks to the players and the staff, the doctors and the agents about sharing information, but in this case it seems like the Brady news got in the hands of educated players and they acted on it,” Kornegay said.
While there was speculation, there were no legitimate reports of Brady coming back. On Saturday, the rumor mill kicked up when Brady himself put out a video on Instagram of him talking to Cristiano Ronaldo.
“You’re finished, right?” Ronaldo said.
Brady made a face as if to say, maybe not.
Ronaldo: “You’re finished right?”
(via IG: tombrady) pic.twitter.com/qBJRmZhsmJ
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) March 13, 2022
Kornegay says he’s merely pointing out suspicious behavior, but doesn’t want to be accused of crying over it. He admits that many times the book gets information that turns out to be legitimate and they’ve already gotten a jump on the bettors by shortening odds in advance.
Tampa Bay is now anywhere from +750 to +900 to win the Super Bowl (real-time odds can be found here.)
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