Texans vs Cowboys Predictions, Picks, Odds

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Houston is 0-3 and still searching for its first win, while Dallas is 1-2 and still replaying the final play of a three-point loss in Brazil. Neither record looks appealing on its own… yet, on Kalshi, the contract for this game keeps drifting toward the winless team, and that gap between the standings and the price is exactly the kind of setup worth trading. The two teams have not met in Houston since 2018, when the Texans escaped with an overtime win, so there is some history riding on this one too. If you are new to the platform, be sure to check our Kalshi promo code before Sunday kickoff.

Now let's get into my Cowboys vs. Texans prediction and my NFL picks for Week 4. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

PREDICTION

Oddly enough, the winless team is the one getting backed here. Two of Houston's 3 losses have come down to one score, and the common thread each time has been missing its top receiver: Nico Collins has not played since Week 1. Dallas, meanwhile, has recorded only two sacks all season, a real problem against a Texans pass rush led by Will Anderson Jr., who already has four sacks of his own this season. Dak Prescott has carried Dallas through a rocky 1-2 start, Brazil defeat included, but he will need more protection than he has gotten so far. If Collins suits up Sunday, Houston's offense should look a lot closer to its season-opening form than its record suggests.

TOTAL

The total sits a shade above the league average, and the shape of this matchup explains why. Dallas has turned a league-high share of its possessions into points this season, even without many big plays to show for it, while Houston's issue has been finishing drives rather than moving the ball. A healthy Collins would only help on that front. Houston has scored in flashes rather than surges so far, and Dallas has shown it can win low-scoring and high-scoring games alike. Expect the number to keep climbing as kickoff nears, especially if Houston's Friday injury report comes back clean.

My Pick: Texans

• Cowboys-Texans Prediction: Cowboys (58%), Texans (42%)
• Cowboys-Texans Total: Over/Under 48

NFL Week 4 Picks

Week 4 is loaded with contracts worth a look, but the Cowboys-Texans line stands out as one of the sharper prices on the board heading into Sunday. Here is the trade carrying the most value.

Houston's 0-3 record hides how competitive this team has actually been. Two of the three losses, to Buffalo and Indianapolis, came down to one score, and the Colts loss happened with Houston managing just 233 total yards without its top receiver.

That is the real story: Nico Collins has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, and Stroud's production has cooled off without him. Both Adam Schefter and head coach DeMeco Ryans have called a Week 4 return plausible, and if Collins suits up, Houston's passing game should look a lot more like the one that opened the season than the one that has produced zero wins since.

Dallas still has not fixed a pass rush that has managed only two sacks all year, which is exactly the kind of weakness Will Anderson Jr. and a healthy Collins can turn into points on the other side of the ball. Sunday will only be the fourth all-time meeting at this venue, and the building itself has not been kind to Dallas, which has managed just a single win here since it opened for the 2002 season.

Here is where the real value shows up: Houston's moneyline price sits well above a coin flip, but the number on whether the Texans win by more than a field goal and change is much closer to even, with the no side getting more respect right now. That gap says the market expects a one-score game even if Houston wins outright. Trading "no" on that number beats piling onto an already-popular moneyline, and it is worth locking in before Friday's injury report on Collins moves the line.

Pick: "No" on Texans -3.5

Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET, live from Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game airs on FOX.