Chiefs vs Titans Odds & Picks | Our 4 Best Bets for Sunday Night Football
- The Sunday slate of Week 9 closes with the Titans facing the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
- Ryan Tannehill is a game-time decision for Tennessee, which faces a tough test in Patrick Mahomes.
- Check out our staff's favorite picks for the game below.
Chiefs vs Titans Odds
Chiefs vs Titans Odds & Picks
Brandon Anderson: We waited on Ryan Tannehill injury news, and the injury report only got murkier.
Tannehill remains questionable and looks like a true game-time decision, and the drop from him to rookie Malik Willis is massive. Willis passed for 55 yards and threw once in the entire second half against the Texans. That’s probably not going to work against the Chiefs.
But it’s not just Tannehill; stud defender Jeffery Simmons is questionable too with an ankle injury. Those are two of the three most important Titans players in this game, so it’s impossible to make a call without knowing whether they’ll play.
If I knew that duo was healthy, I’d love Tennessee.
Mike Vrabel is 2-0 ATS against Andy Reid in the regular season, winning as four- and five-point underdogs. His Titans have thrived as big underdogs, and Tennessee’s great defense and run-first-run-second attack are a formula that gives Kansas City problems.
Vrabel is an incredible 20-10 straight up as an underdog of a field goal or more, a ridiculous 102% ROI. We’ve seen Vrabel’s guys win this exact script as big underdogs so many times.
That script includes Derrick Henry smashing the defense, Tannehill dialing up the play-action, and Simmons leading the D though. I want nothing to do with this game if it’s Willis at quarterback.
Keep an eye on the Action app tonight and we may make a late Tennessee play if things look good. If Tannehill and Simmons play, that Titans moneyline is far too long.
Cody Goggin: Isiah Pacheco is becoming more and more integrated into Kansas City’s offense. Prior to the Week 7 game against San Francisco, it was announced that Pacheco would start at running back.
The Chiefs typically run more of a committee out of the backfield, and by looking at the final numbers from this game, that appears to be the case.
Pacheco had eight of the 21 rushes for the Chiefs. At the start of this game, the Chiefs were in comeback mode so their overall rushing numbers were suppressed. Pacheco still managed 43 rushing yards, which is higher than the number set tonight.
The Chiefs are big favorites against the Titans and will likely find themselves in a run-heavy game script if they perform up to expectation. Kansas City’s offensive line ranks third in the league in PFF’s run blocking grade, which will help Pacheco as well.
Following this team for years, I expect Pacheco to get the bulk of the workload out of the backfield, especially while the Chiefs lead. Potentially playing against Malik Willis, this could get ugly.
Sam Farley: Sunday Night Football gives us a tasty matchup with the Titans traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Chiefs.
We’ve been waiting for a wideout to step up for the Chiefs and give us anything near what they had with Tyreek Hill. It isn’t MVS, it doesn’t appear to be Juju Smith-Schuster and it certainly isn’t Skyy Moore.
Then the Chiefs traded for Kadarius Toney, and since then it’s been revealed that Brett Veach spoke to Patrick Mahomes as long ago as the offseason about trading for Toney.
Toney has already lost the “injury” that kept him out of so many Giants games so it’s going to be fascinating to see how Andy Reid uses him. He has a unique skillset and while he doesn’t have the speed of Hill, or potentially the mindset, he’s clearly got one-of-a-kind abilities. Nobody in the NFL will be able to scheme better for him than Reid.
It’s a long shot, but at +500, I’m happy to bet on the Chiefs finding some interesting packages to get Toney into the end zone.
Stuckey: From Weeks 4 through 8, Derrick Henry has 79 more rushing yards than any other back in the league. Did I mention the Titans had a bye over that stretch?
They are feeding the King and should do so once again tonight, whether or not Ryan Tannehill suits up for an offense that is extremely limited through the air. There’s a reason Tennessee ranks as the slowest team in the league. It wants to shorten the game as much as possible and will especially want to do so here on the road against a superior team.
However, it is worth noting that the Chiefs run defense, which has been an abomination in recent seasons, has improved due to additions in recent years. It’s still not a great run defense by any stretch, but adequate enough to not get completely run over by Henry.
How do I see this game playing out?
Kansas City will eventually build margin on a Tennessee defense that struggles against the pass. Then, the Chiefs will take the air out of the ball and bleed clock late while the Titans fail to mount a comeback with their inept aerial attack.
We also could see a high frequency of red-zone trips end in field goals. These two offenses lead the league in red-zone TD scoring percentage at an unsustainable clip, so regression looms in that department.
For what it’s worth, this is how Chiefs games have played out at home in the Andy Reid era.
- Chiefs unders in home games with Reid as favorite: 43-25-1; 63.5% going under by 4 PPG
- As 7+ point favorite: 24-10-1; 70.6% going under by 7 PPG
- As double-digit favorite: 14-5; 70% going under by 8 PPG