Titans vs Colts Odds, Pick for Week 5: Spread, Total, Prediction

Titans vs Colts Odds, Pick for Week 5: Spread, Total, Prediction article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Tannehill (left) and Anthony Richardson (right).

Titans vs Colts Odds, Pick for Week 5: Spread, Total, Prediction

Sunday, Oct. 8
1 p.m. ET
Titans Odds
-110o / -110u
Colts Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Sunday's Week 5 NFL odds make visiting Tennessee a 2.5-point favorite at Lucas Oil Stadium, as we break down the Titans vs. Colts odds and make our pick and prediction for this Week 5 matchup.

It may only be Week 5, but this AFC South showdown will have implications for weeks to come. There is currently a four-way tie in the division with all teams sitting at 2-2. Anthony Richardson has gotten off to a hot start, tallying seven total touchdowns in just three games. Ryan Tannehill hasn’t had quite as much success, but he is coming off a 240-yard performance against the Cincinnati Bengals. Which quarterback will come out on top?

This game has been a pick ‘em for most of the week, and for good reason. These teams struggle to differentiate themselves offensively. They both fall in the middle of the pack for most offensive statistics. Richardson has the ability to get things done with his feet, rather than his arm. The 35-year-old Tannehill isn’t afraid to escape pressure, but I don’t see the Titans designing runs for him frequently.

Continue reading below for my Titans vs. Colts pick and prediction in this AFC South rivalry Week 5 game preview.

Titans vs Colts

Matchup Analysis

The Titans’ pass defense has been less than stellar in previous years, and this year has brought more of the same.

They allow nearly eight yards per pass attempt, making them the seventh worst in the league for that metric. They have faced Derek Carr, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson and a banged-up Joe Burrow thus far. None of these quarterbacks are known for bombing it down the field — except for Herbert — which is a cause for concern given the rate at which Tennessee gives up pass yards.

On the other end, the Colts haven't faced a murderers' row of quarterbacks, yet they have surrendered similar numbers as the Titans’ defense (7.6 pass yards per attempt).

However, the Colts have the ability to pressure the quarterback with just a normal rush and don't really have to blitz. Every team that's been able to pressure Tannehill has seen success. 

Bet Tennessee vs Indianapolis at FanDuel

Titans -2.5

Colts +2.5

Pro Football Focus has Tennessee’s pass block rate in the bottom third of the league, which means Tannehill may be under pressure early. The Titans will get Peter Skoronski back this week, but that will only fix a small part of a bigger problem.

The Colts have forced sacks on 8.5% of dropbacks, a testament to their pass-rush ability. When you consider that Tannehill has a turnover-worthy play rate of 3.6%, this could be the recipe for a panicked Tannehill to force throws into windows where the opportunity for completion may be slim. 

Titans vs. Colts

Betting Picks & Predictions

Indianapolis has the lowest blitz rate in the NFL. Its high pressure rate and low blitz rate allow them to pressure the quarterback while keeping backs in coverage. In addition, Tannehill has displayed poor decision making under duress.

Tannehill has thrown an interception in two of four games this season, including three in Week 1 vs. New Orleans. In that game against the Saints, all three interceptions were the result of a collapsed pocket from just a four-man rush.

The Titans offensive line has struggled, and Tannehill is paying the price as a result of that. I am banking on him to commit at least one turnover-worthy play.

Pick: Tannehill to Throw an INT (+105; bet365).

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