Titans vs Saints Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 1
Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry (left) and Derek Carr.
Titans vs. Saints Odds
Titans vs. Saints odds have New Orleans laying a field goal in Week 1 of the NFL season.
Tennessee lost its final seven games of the 2022 season and missed the playoffs in dramatic fashion on the penultimate day of the NFL regular season. Ryan Tannehill is back and healthy for the Titans as they travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints with new quarterback Derek Carr. New Orleans, the favorite to win the NFC South, has the easiest schedule in the NFL, but a new quarterback and aging roster leave the Saints with some questions to answer.
Let's break down the matchup and make our Titans vs. Saints pick to open the season.
The Saints have the second-oldest roster in the NFL by average age, second only to the Jets. When you consider that the Jets have two outliers (39-year-old Aaron Rodgers and 37-year-old Thomas Morstead), the Saints are relying on players north of 30 at premium positions more than any team in the NFL.
There's inherent risk in that approach to roster building because the cliff can come rather quickly. Two of the three most important players on the Saints defense are Cameron Jordan (34) and Demario Davis (34). The safeties (Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu) are also both north of 30 and the Saints have struggled to effectively fill the corner spot opposite of Marshon Lattimore.
Dennis Allen is an excellent defensive schemer and coordinator, which gives the Saints a solid floor each season. But there's some real risk with the Saints roster, especially relying on Carr in Year 1 of a new system and team. Carr ranked 30th in Success Rate per drop back last season out of 42 quarterbacks who had at least 150 plays. He finished 34th in CPOE (completion percentage over expected).
Carr's accuracy numbers have been on a slow, but steady, downward trend over the last few seasons. He won't have Alvin Kamara as his primary checkdown option and he's also struggled in Year 1 with new coordinators and systems in the past. He had worse numbers in Las Vegas than Andy Dalton did in the Saints offense.
Bet Tennessee vs. New Orleans at FanDuel
Tannehill wasn't stellar last season when he played, but his production numbers were considerably better than Carr's. Tannehill ranks between 18th and 20th in EPA/play, CPOE and Success Rate. The Titans had the best first-quarter offense last year and then one of the worst once they went off script. Former offensive coordinator Todd Downing lost his job, and 2022 passing game coordinator Tim Kelly now runs the offense.
Tennessee should see some improvement from its receiving group in Year 2 with Treylon Burks and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins may not be at his prime, but his possession skills raise the floor of the Titans receiving room.
The Titans will have real questions along the offensive line, which is their biggest team weakness. But the defense retained defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, who did as good of a job as any DC last year. They're a well-coached team and have the ability to get pressure and rattle Carr in the pocket.
Titans vs. Saints
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Titans opened as high as +4 in the summer when the schedule was released. As the limits have increased and the market has taken more money, it's ticked down toward Tennessee. The Titans have excelled constantly as an underdog since Mike Vrabel became head coach. He's 22-9-1 (71%) against the spread when the spread is +3 or higher.
These two teams are even for me, and once you factor in home-field advantage, it still doesn't get to the full three points this game is currently lined at.
I'd bet Titans +3 or better, and I'd add more if you're able to get +3.5 in what should be a close, low-scoring game.
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