Titans vs Saints Player Props: Pick for Derek Carr
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Carr.
Derek Carr makes his Saints debut in Week 1 against the Titans on Sunday afternoon. Although there's only a limited sample size from the preseason, there is an edge worth betting on his passing attempts prop.
In his abbreviated final season with the Raiders, Carr averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game and went over this line of 31.5 in nine of 15 games. He's faced the Titans five times in his career, most recently throwing 44 times in 2022.
This matchup should be no different, as the Titans rush defense presents a tough challenge for the Saints offensive line.
In 2022, no team was better than the Titans at preventing rushing yards, allowing just 1,307 (76.9 yards per game). They ranked first in rush DVOA thanks to their front seven, which features Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons. Harold Landry could also be back in the mix after missing the 2022 season. He's listed as questionable with an abdomen injury.
Additionally, the Saints are even more disadvantaged on the ground due to the absence of Alvin Kamara (suspension) and questionable availability of rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller (knee). Newcomer Jamaal Williams will take on most of the workload — he ranked 41st (out of the 45 eligible running backs with at least 100 carries) in PFF's elusive rating.
If the Titans are successful at containing the run, the Saints will have to fall back on Carr. Last season, the Titans were last in passing yards allowed per game (274.8 YPG). With healthier weapons, including Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson, it will be a tough afternoon for the Titans.
It's really no surprise that 14 of the last 17 quarterbacks who have played the Titans have gone over this prop with an average of 39.5 pass attempts.
I expect this trend to continue and I would bet this to -140.