Bills vs Vikings: NFL Week 10 Odds, Picks, Prediction
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Jefferson.
Bills vs Vikings Odds
Josh Allen’s injury looms large over what may happen in this game. As of the last report on Allen as of Saturday, he’s expected to be active. Be sure to monitor this situation closely and get the latest odds with our live page.
With that in mind, the Vikings team total is still too low in this game, regardless of whether Allen plays. Minnesota’s offense has been relatively strong this season and with a potentially injured quarterback on the other side, things set up even better for it to thrive.
Bills vs Vikings Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bills and Vikings match up statistically:
Vikings vs. Bills DVOA Breakdown
Currently, the Vikings’ team total is set at just 19.5 points. The game total opened at 49.5, but Allen’s injury has moved it down to 42.5 now.
There has only been one game this season where the Vikings failed to score 20 points. Minnesota’s offense has been towards the middle of the pack this season. The Vikings rank 15th in EPA per play and eighth in success rate. Their strength has been in the passing game, where they rank eighth in passing success rate.
Kirk Cousins ranks 10th among qualifying quarterbacks in success rate this season but 20th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. This passing offense has been relatively successful but has had troubles generating explosive plays.
Dalvin Cook and this Vikings run game may have an edge to take advantage of this weekend. According to Pro Football Focus' OL/DL matchup chart, The Vikings have one of the biggest advantages in the ground game this week with a 14% advantage. Minnesota ranks eighth in rushing DVOA this season, as well.
Vikings +3 | Bills -3
This team total is suppressed this week by both Allen’s injury and the market’s belief in this Buffalo defense. The Bills have not performed at an elite level this season, though, and are down some key names.
Buffalo ranks 19th in defensive success rate this season and have benefitted from preventing big plays and generating turnovers, as they are fifth in EPA per play. Teams have had success against the Bills both on the ground and through the air as they rank 17th and 20th in success rate in those two categories, respectively. The Bills have just the 21st best rushing defense according to Pro Football Focus and are 23rd in tackling grade.
Health is going to be a major factor in this game as well. In addition to Allen, the Bills are also going to be without Jordan Poyer and Greg Rousseau. Cornerback Kaiir Elam is doubtful with an ankle injury, and Tremaine Edmunds is questionable. With Micah Hyde already out for the season, Buffalo’s secondary and pass rush will both be missing key pieces this weekend, potentially opening things up for Cousins.
Allen’s injury may also help the Vikings to go over this total. If he either doesn’t play or isn’t 100%, this Bills offense won’t be nearly as effective as it has been for the last couple of years. This will lead to the Vikings having more possessions and more potential scoring opportunities.
The total for this game is already too low, and the Vikings team total also dropping is just a derivative of this game line. If anything, Minnesota’s implied total should probably increase as they should have more drives and chances to score.
The Vikings offense is overall a fairly average unit, but it does have some advantages over Buffalo in the run game. Also, the Bills' injuries will comprise the back end of this defense, giving Cousins and Justin Jefferson a chance to have success.
In addition to the injury report, I would also recommend monitoring the weather since there is a chance for some wintry mix of rain and snow that could affect this total. At 19.5, I would take the Vikings team total over without hesitation. I would take this up to 23.5 points.
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