The New England Patriots host the Washington Commanders for some Week 1 preseason action on Friday.
Let's get into my Commanders vs Patriots prediction and NFL picks for preseason Week 1.
Commanders vs Patriots Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 34.5 -115o / -105u | +225 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 34.5 -115o / -105u | -275 |
- Commanders-Patriots Point Spread: Commanders +6.5 (-110) · Patriots -6.5 (-110)
- Commanders-Patriots Total: Over/Under 34.5
- Commanders-Patriots Moneyline: Commanders +225 · Patriots -275
NFL Picks: Preseason Week 1
Mike Vrabel will throw most of New England’s starters out for at least a few drives, including up-and-coming star quarterback Drake Maye, who completed 18-of-27 passes against Washington’s first-string defense in Wednesday’s joint practice (including multiple touchdowns).
Meanwhile, the Patriots’ defense held the Commanders’ star quarterback Jayden Daniels to 15-for-24 passing behind four sacks.
Daniels won’t play on Friday, alongside most of Washington’s starters. I don’t think Dan Quinn takes these preseason games very seriously, given his teams are 7-17 straight up and 6-18 against the spread across 24 preseason games.
Vrabel is around a .500 preseason coach, both SU and ATS.
Expect plenty of backup quarterback play, with Joshua Dobbs leading the Patriots and a combination of Josh Johnson and Sam Hartman leading the Commanders — second-string quarterback Marcus Mariota will be sidelined for this one with an injury.
Johnson ripped it up in preseason last year with the Ravens, completing 20-of-30 passes (67%) for 253 yards (8.4 YPA) with two touchdowns and no picks. Hartman completed 8-of-13 passes (62%) for 83 yards (6.4 YPA).
Dobbs played three preseason games with the 49ers last season, completing 34-of-51 passes (67%) for 351 yards (6.9 YPA) and one touchdown to one interception. Notably, Maye went 13-for-20 for 126 yards and a score in last year’s Commanders-Patriots preseason game, leading the Patriots to a 7-0 lead in the first quarter.
You also might see New England roll out Ben Woolridge under center.
Commanders vs Patriots Predictions
I prefer New England’s preseason quarterback situation, and also have more faith in its secondary units.
The Pats have plenty of depth across the defensive two-deep, and I loved the offensive players they added in the draft — tackle Will Campbell, running back TreVeyon Henderson, receiver Kyle Williams and center Jared Wilson should get plenty of playing time in preseason Week 1.
I also prefer the preseason coaching situation for the Pats, specifically because Quinn can’t be bothered with winning these preseason contests.
Sharp money has rolled in on the Patriots, with the line jumping up to New England -6.5 at the time of writing.
That said, much of that jump came after the positive news bump from Wednesday’s joint practice.
Additionally, Quinn’s Commanders did make a furious comeback in last year’s Patriots-Commanders preseason match, scoring 14 fourth-quarter points in a 20-10 win as 6.5-point underdogs.
Ultimately, it’s Patriots or nothing for me in this matchup. I’d consider laying anything under seven or a juiced moneyline.
Leans:
- Patriots ML
- Patriots ATS
