Canada and France meet in the preliminary round for the 2026 Winter Olympics. Puck drop is set for 10:40 a.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on USA Network and streamed on Peacock.
Canada is favored by 5.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-155o/ +130u). Canada is a -10000 favorite to win outright, while France is +3300 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canada vs France predictions and Olympics picks.
Canada vs. France Odds, Pick
| France Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -130 | 6.5 o -155/ u +130 | -10000 |
| Canada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 +110 | 6.5 o -155 / u +130 | +3300 |
- Canada vs. France Puck Line: Canada -5.5 (+110), France +5.5 (-130)
- Canada vs. France Over/Under: 6.5 (-155o / +130u)
- Canada vs. France Moneyline: Canada -10000, France +3300
Canada vs. France Preview
Canada
No surprise through the first two games of group play, Canada remains the favorite for gold. They were in complete control against Czechia and Switzerland, registering a 10–1 goal differential.
As if Canada couldn’t be any more intimidating, 19-year-old Macklin Celebrini has looked wise beyond his years skating alongside McDavid on the top line.
Beyond that, head coach Jon Cooper bumped Nathan MacKinnon onto the top line against Switzerland for a spark, and why wouldn’t he? Three of the top four point leaders in the NHL on the same line is certainly a luxury. It paid off, as the trio combined for three goals and eight points.
Canada is still figuring out where to slot players who may have to play out of position, but the chemistry between Celebrini, McDavid, and MacKinnon is a storyline we should hear a lot more about as the Olympics progress.
Logan Thompson started against Switzerland on Friday, so I'd imagine Binnington will be back in net Sunday. Thompson has put together the stronger year with the Capitals, but Canada still trusts Binnington after his performance at the Four Nations Face Off last February and other big spots in his career.
No starter is confirmed, but honestly, it probably won’t matter much given the matchup. Binnington carries a .864 save percentage, 3.65 GAA and a league-worst -24.9 GSAx in 32 games with the Blues. That said, Canada might treat this as a chance to get him rolling.
France
Credit to France for the response it showed Friday.
They were clearly outmatched early, getting outshot 16–3 in the first period, but flipped the game out of nowhere with three goals in the first six minutes of the second to take the lead. If not for a sloppy line change that allowed a shorthanded goal, they likely would’ve entered the third tied against a decent Czech team.
Still, it was encouraging to see France compete as they did, especially in their first Olympic appearance since finishing 14th in 2002. The loss eliminated them from moving on, but Louis Boudon’s two goals gave them something to build on.
Boudon had a career year in the ECHL with 12 goals and 18 assists in 25 games before signing in Finland. As it looks, if France is going to generate anything against Canada, their best bets are Boudon, Alexandre Texier—their lone NHL skater—or Pierre-Édouard Bellemare.
20-year-old Martin Neckar was better in net than the six goals against might suggest on Friday. Though shaky, he made several highlight saves, and many of the six allowed were a result of poor play in front of him.
Julian Junca came in relief and stopped all 12 shots he faced. With all three goalies now having seen action, Antoine Keller seems like the logical choice for Sunday, though nothing is confirmed. Keller started against Switzerland and fared well, stopping 39 of 43 shots.
France could also turn to Junca, who has played 36 games in Slovakia’s top league, posting a 2.41 GAA and .925 save percentage. Of course, that likely doesn’t mean much with McDavid, Crosby, MacKinnon and Celebrini waiting.
Canada vs. France Prediction
This game is going to be one-sided and ugly.
Many books moved the total to 7.5, but it's sitting at 6.5 on bet365, and that’s the number I’d want to lock in.
It might be asking a lot for France to contribute two goals, but if they manage even one, it would be a bonus. Canada has plenty of firepower to push the total over on its own.
I think this ends up looking a lot like Italy–Finland, and we haven’t seen much from France to suggest they can prevent a similar script from unfolding.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-155)
