Team USA enters Friday's Olympic women's hockey quarterfinal against Italy as an overwhelming favorite, with Kalshi traders pricing a U.S. victory at 99 cents (99% probability) in what marks the first-ever meeting between these nations in international competition.
The prediction market reflects the stark disparity between the teams, with the market showing Italy priced at just 1 cent (1% probability) to pull off the upset.
If you're curious about Kalshi — which is legal in most states — or want to make your own USA vs Italy predictions, be sure to use our Kalshi promo code to get started.
USA vs Italy Predictions
The Americans justified their market dominance with a perfect preliminary round, going 4-0-0-0 while outscoring opponents 20-1. As the tournament's top seed, Team USA extended its historic Olympic preliminary dominance to 25-0-0-3 all-time. The squad now faces host nation Italy at 3:10 p.m. ET in Milan, with coverage on USA Network and Peacock.
Italy's path to the quarterfinals represents a significant achievement for the host nation and sets up its historic first encounter with the Americans. The matchup highlights the growth of women's hockey globally, even as the market odds reflect the current competitive reality.
The 98-point spread in market probability underscores just how dominant Team USA has been, not only in these Olympics but historically in women's international hockey. While upsets remain possible in single-elimination hockey, traders are betting heavily that American experience and talent will prove decisive against Italy's home-ice advantage.
The winner advances to face either Canada or Finland in the semifinals, with Team USA's ultimate goal of Olympic gold still looming.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
