Czechia and Canada will meet in the preliminary round of the 2026 Winter Olympics on Thursday. Puck drop is set for 10:40 a.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on USA Network and streamed on Peacock.
Canada is priced at -106 to cover a puck-line set at -2.5, with the over/under set at 5.5 (O -182 /U +150). Canada is a -625 favorite to win outright, while Czechia is +450 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Czechia vs Canada predictions and Olympics picks.
Czechia vs. Canada Odds, Pick
| Czechia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -106 | 5.5 -176o / +145u | +450 |
| Canada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -118 | 5.5 -176o / +145u | -625 |
- Czechia vs. Canada Spread: Czechia +2.5 (-106), Canada -2.5 (-118)
- Czechia vs. Canada Over/Under: 5.5 (-176o / +145)
- Czechia vs. Canada Moneyline: Czechia +450, Canada -625
Czechia vs. Canada Preview
Czechia
It's somewhat of an apples-to-oranges comparison, but Czechia may have drawn some inspiration from Wednesday's tournament-opening matchups: Slovakia knocked off Finland as a fairly huge underdog (+330), while an extremely undermanned Italian side with zero NHL skaters managed to keep the scoreline closer than expected against Sweden for most of the game.
What may inspire further confidence in Czechia is that it has recently found success at the international level under head coach Radim Rulik, having won the 2024 World Championships. While that tournament did not feature the same level of talent that this one will, it's still logical to expect Czechia to be a well-structured side based on the play it exhibited during the Gold Medal run.
As we saw on Thursday, for as lopsided as some of the rosters are in this tournament, any team is somewhat live if they can limit odd-man rushes and allow their goaltenders a chance to make saves on mid-range and semi-pressured shots, even if the quantity of those chances happens to rack up in a hurry.
Czechia has two high-quality NHL starters on the roster in Lukas Dostal and Karel Vejmelka, and even a little extra insurance in the pipes with Dan Vladar. When at his absolute best, Dostal may be the best of the three, but whether it's he or Vejmelka, they will offer a goaltender capable of offering an elite level of play.
Vejmelka holds superior numbers to Dostal this season with a +11.2 GSAx and .902 SV% across 44 appearances. Dostal holds a +3.6 GSAx and .897 SV% across 38 games this season, but was one of the best goaltenders in the NHL last season while playing behind an Anaheim Ducks team that was awful defensively.
It's unclear which of the two will get the start in this game, but the final decision does not seem to hold a ton of handicapping merit.
Projected Lineup based on open practices:
Martin Necas – Tomas Hertl – David Pastrnak (A)
Ondrej Palat – David Kampf – Ondrej Kase
Roman Cervenka (C) – Lukas Sedlak – David Tomasek
Matej Stransky – Radek Faksa – Dominik Kubalik
Radek Simek – Filip Hronek
Michal Kempny – Radko Gudas (A)
Jan Rutta – David Spacek
PP1: Palat, Hertl, Necas, Pastrnak, Hronek
Czechia has some high-quality NHLers atop the lineup, led by two of the very best forwards in the world in Pastrnak and Necas. Pastrnak and Necas have a solid center to work with in Hertl, and Czechia's top line should prove to be a highly formidable unit in this tournament, though they will exclusively skate in tough matchups on Thursday.
It appears likely that Pavel Zacha will be sidelined for this matchup with an upper-body injury. For the absolute best teams in this tournament, Zacha’s loss wouldn't be an issue, but given their lack of center depth, it is a meaningful issue for Czechia.
Czechia's top power play unit will likely need to be highly successful in order for the team to have a realistic chance of stealing a medal in this tournament. It's not unrealistic to think that it could be a strong unit either, as Pastrnak is one of the best power-play skaters in the NHL, while Hronek should be a livable quarterback option, and Necas is a zone-entry machine.
Canada
While Canada's roster omissions may not be quite as surprising as those of Team U.S.A., the construction of the blue line is certainly debatable.
After a head-to-head loss to the U.S.A. in the round-robin phase of the 4 Nations Face-Off, Canada was ultimately able to win when it counted by the thinnest of margins, thanks to an overtime winner from Connor McDavid.
If Jordan Binnington did not preserve the eventual victory with the flurry of saves in overtime linked above, would Canadian GM Doug Armstrong have reevaluated the composition of his blue line? It seems likely that would have been the case if so, which is arguably flawed thinking.
Any semi-logical Canadian roster combination would have been favoured to win the 4 Nations, so just because they won, it does not necessarily prove it was an optimal lineup.
Canada opted to run back the same defensive core it exhibited at the 4 Nations Faceoff, though the selections of Colton Parayko, Drew Doughty, Travis Sanheim, and arguably even Thomas Harley, given his surprisingly modest play this season, were debatable.
The team passed on a lot of high-end puck-moving ability and offensive talent in skaters such as Matthew Schaefer, Evan Bouchard, and Jakob Chychrun in order to keep skaters who earned management's trust previously.
Regardless, every Canadian defender is still an above-average option at the NHL level, but if the team is to struggle relative to other superpowers such as the United States and Sweden, a lack of puck-moving ability and offense from the back end will be a logical causation.
Canada's defensive core will be sharing the ice with one of the more stacked forward corps any team has offered in the history of the sport, which may likely be part of the reasoning as to why management opted for more conservative options on the back end. The bubble decisions up front for Canada were far more marginal than those on the back end, as they had nine or ten forwards that would have made any armchair GM's lineup, who will handle the bulk of the minutes.
Projected Lineup based on open practices:
Macklin Celebrini – Connor McDavid (A) – Tom Wilson
Brandon Hagel – Nathan MacKinnon – Sam Reinhart
Mitch Marner – Sidney Crosby (C) – Mark Stone
Brad Marchand – Bo Horvat – Nick Suzuki
Devon Toews – Cale Makar (A)
Josh Morrissey – Colton Parayko
Shea Theodore – Travis Sanheim
PP1: Makar, Crosby, McDavid, MacKinnon, Reinhart
Head coach Jon Cooper adjusted his offensive lines at the most recent open practice compared to the units exhibited at the first practice of the tournament. Chances are there will be plenty of shuffling in the preliminary round, as a team with so much talent likely won't wait long for skaters or lines to click.
The top line of Celebrini, McDavid and Wilson has been together consistently throughout the lead-up to this matchup, as has the third line of Marner, Crosby and Stone. Reinhart was bumped onto the second unit at the latest practice, which seems logical.
You can pick several skaters who could be potential "x-factors" for Canada, but I'll throw Reinhart's name in the mix. He's an extremely intelligent skater who understands spacing in the offensive zone exceptionally well and was great defensively during the Florida Panthers' back-to-back championships.
Reinhart will play the bumper spot on Canada's top power play unit. He is a lethal shooter between the dots who should get plenty of looks on an absolutely stacked top power play unit. Reinhart is tied with Nathan MacKinnon for second in the NHL with 123 goals scored dating back to the start of the 2023-24 regular season, and it still feels as though his goal-scoring prowess is somewhat slept on.
Though Canada has not yet confirmed that Jordan Binnington will get the start in goal, most indicators appear to suggest they will stick with the guy who helped win them the 4 Nations Face Off with some overtime heroics. While Binnington was great in that tournament, he holds the worst GSAx rating in the NHL this season, as well as an .864 SV%. He also held a modest .900 SV% in the playoffs last year when the St. Louis Blues were eliminated in round one.
While Binnington has honed a reputation for elevating his level of play in higher-profile matchups, his play at the NHL level this season has to be viewed as a concern.
Czechia vs. Canada Prediction
There are just enough concerns among the Canadian side for me to believe a spread of 2.5 on this matchup is fair, and if anything I'd lean with Czechia.
Binnington has had some meaningful success in high-profile matchups historically, but a sample of 32 starts in the NHL level this season suggests Canada is banking very hard on the idea that he will elevate his game in this tournament. It's entirely possible that he will be outperformed significantly by Dostal or Vejmelka, so I'm not interested in backing Canada in any fashion in their tournament opener.
Czechia has also shown fairly well in recent international play, and though they will surely be heavily outchanced in this matchup, it's reasonable to believe they may be able to protect "home-plate" somewhat respectably, and limit the total of odd-man rushes Canada can generate.
There are some player props that look to provide strong value in this matchup. Backing Pastrnak to score at +240 catches my eye, as contrary to what we will see from team's like Canada and the USA, Czechia's top line will likely play monster minutes in this matchup, and though they will face tough matchups all night long, it is still a unit compiled of elite talents.
Pastrnak has one of the best one-timers in hockey from the left circle on the power play, and is also excellent at freeing himself up for shots in different areas. Czechia's expected goal output is low in this game, but a price of +240 looks playable for one of the game's best goalscorers in a matchup where he may potentially play even more minutes than he does at the NHL level.
Backing Cale Makar to record over 2.5 shots on goal also catches my eye. Makar has attempted 17.75 shots per 60 at the NHL level this season, and averaged 8.9 shot attempts per game over the last ten games.
In many game scripts, he will likely play slightly fewer minutes than he normally does with the Colorado Avalanche, but he will still anchor the top power play unit and likely handle at least 21 minutes. It also does seem possible that Canada will simply play the Makar and Devon Toews pairing, which has so much familiarity, their usual workload if the other units aren't overly effective out of the gates.
Czechia will likely to try to collapse low in the defensive zone in attempting to take away the highest danger scoring chances, which could mean a lot of opportunities for Makar to sift pucks into traffic. A price of +128 for Makar to record three shots on goal looks to hold strong value in this opening matchup.
My last lean would be with Reinhart to score, which I did post to the Action Network app Thursday evening when it was priced at +230. By no means do I hate that look at the current price of +210, but given that even that number is scarcely available, we will stick with writing up the other two bets.
Picks:
- David Pastrnak Anytime Goalscorer +240 (Bet365/BetMGM, Play to +230)
- Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +128 (FanDuel, Play to +118)
