With the final NHL game upon us before the season takes a three-week pause for the Winter Olympics, I've tailed a pair of player props that I think hold a ton of value.
Let's dive into my NHL props, featuring picks, predictions, and odds for Thursday, February 5.
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Nick Martin's Favorite Player Props, Thursday, February 5
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NHL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Penguins vs. Sabres
Users of the Action Network App who consistently follow my picks and/or follow all of my work will know that I've been high on backing Chinakhov to record over 2.5 shots recently, as it continues to be puzzling to me that oddsmakers seem dead set on not believing his recent shot volume is sustainable.
Chinakhov was priced at +155 to record three shots on goal in the Penguins' most recent game versus the Islanders on Tuesday, and scored a goal from a total of three shots on target across 16:47 of time on ice. He's now recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four straight matchups, averaging 3.75 shots on goal and 5.5 attempts per game in that span.
Shots are very random in the NHL, and any skater is capable of having a small sample of games where they happen to end up in positions to put pucks on target. It's obvious that Chinakhov's recent volume is not going to hold quite where it has been, but it still seems likely that he will remain more of a volume shooter than oddsmakers are expecting moving forward.
Chinakhov's shot is his best asset, and the general take towards his game from most observers in the time since he came over from the Blue Jackets has been surprise regarding just how heavy and accurate his shot is.
It's encouraging that Chinakhov should continue to be geared towards shooting as much as possible by a highly intelligent head coach, Dan Muse, as well as his linemates.
Playing alongside future Hall of Fame countryman Evgeni Malkin seems to be another reason that the Chinakhov pickup has proven to be so effective for Penguins GM Kyle Dubas.
Playing alongside Malkin likely helped Chinakhov immediately feel comfortable, and the Penguins' second offensive trio of Malkin, Chinakhov and underrated play-driver Tommy Novak has been controlling play very effectively.
Across 120.8 minutes of play, Malkin, Chinakhov and Novak hold a 58.9% expected goal share and have generated 3.78 xGF/60, which is the more important metric of the two regarding this prop. Out of the Penguins' forward lines that have spent over 100 minutes together, they have generated more expected goals per 60 than any other unit, and they have also outscored opponents 11 to 6.
The fact that the line is faring so well where it counts should mean Muse is eager to rely on them heavily in Thursday's important matchup versus the Sabres, and it's obviously a good thing that they are generating a lot of chances in the offensive zone.
And while the Sabres have fared exceptionally well where it counts recently, they have allowed 29.97 shots against per 60 over the last 15 games, which is the second-highest mark in the NHL in that span.
This is certainly still a prop that will lose more often than it wins, but a price of +202 looks far too long for Chinakhov to record three or more shots on target in a favorable matchup Thursday.
Pick: Yegor Chinakhov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+202, Play to +190)
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Hurricanes vs. Rangers
Perhaps more than even the majority of NHL skaters, those on the Rangers roster are certainly very excited to get into the break and have some reprieve from a season that has been a full-fledged disaster.
The potential that this game is not remotely competitive is a concern with regard to this prop, and Carolina is a tough target for opposing shooters to generate volume.
Still, it's hard to pass up Zibanejad to record over 2.5 shots on goal at this kind of price right now. He is, by any account, the top forward left on the Rangers' barren roster and, more specifically, is the primary shooter on the Rangers' top power play unit and top even-strength trio.
Over the last ten games, Zibanejad has averaged 3.0 on goal, as well as 5.7 attempts on goal per game. He's skated an average of 21:49 in those matchups, which is, to no surprise, the highest mark of any Rangers forward.
He's cashed this prop in 57% of games played since January 1st, and that mark seems sustainable based on his lofty usage and output of attempts on target.
Over the last eight games, Carolina has allowed 25.05 shots against per 60. That's certainly a concern, but it's not a complete nightmare; the Hurricanes are still allowing only 2.01 shots per game, less than the league average during that span.
There is a bit of a rivalry between these two sides, and if head coach Mike Sullivan coaches to win this game at all, Zibanejad will likely play big minutes in what will likely be a trailing game script.
Pick: Mika Zibanejad Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110, Play to +105)
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