Czechia and Denmark will face off in the qualifier round of the 2026 Winter Olympics on Tuesday. Puck drop is set for 10:40 a.m. ET at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on CNBC and streamed on Peacock.
Czechia is priced at -130 to cover the puck-line of -1.5, with the over/under set at 6.5 (O +110/U -130). Czechia is a -325 favorite to win outright, while Denmark is +260 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Czechia vs Denmark predictions and Olympics picks.
Czechia vs. Denmark Odds, Pick
- Czechia vs. Denmark Puck Line: Czechia -1.5 (-130), Denmark +1.5 (+110)
- Czechia vs. Denmark Over/Under: 6.5 (O +110 /U -130)
- Czechia vs. Denmark Moneyline: Czechia -325, Denmark +260
Czechia vs. Denmark Preview
Czechia
Czechia looked more or less as expected in the group stage, if not slightly disappointing. Czechia suffered a convincing 5-1 loss to Canada, bested a thin French side 6-3, then fell 4-3 in overtime to Switzerland in a fairly evenly contested matchup.
Though Czechia's head-to-head matchup with Switzerland could have gone either way, Switzerland did generate far more quality chances than Czechia did in their head-to-head matchup versus Canada.
Given that it was expected to be the swing game in Czechia's group stage performance and that it was also the most recent game, it seems reasonable to pay some attention to how Czechia fared versus Switzerland. Czechia led 32-to-29 in shots on goal, but Switzerland held a significant 13- to-5 edge in shots on goal from the inner slot.
In terms of chance creation in this tournament, Czechia's top skaters were exactly the ones who would be expected to lead the team. David Pastrnak has averaged 4.3 scoring chances and 3.7 chance assists. Martin Necas has averaged 4.7 chances and 3.7 chance assists and probably looked the most consistently threatening of any forward, while Tomas Hertl finished third in both categories.
Necas led the team with three goals and five points in the group stage, while Pastrnak recorded a goal and two assists. Filip Chlapik put up two goals and an assist in just two games.
Czechia has been scrappy in international play under head coach Radim Rulik and won the 2024 Men's World Championship. While the team has some strong continuity from that tournament, there is far less depth in terms of high-quality NHL skaters.
Due to its lack of depth, for Czechia to contend in the medal round, it needs to play a near-perfectly organized team game, and its group stage performance wasn't exactly a convincing depiction of an overly high ceiling.
Czechia's power play will need to be highly effective in order to knock off some of the powerhouses favored to medal in this tournament, and — to this point — it hasn't been entirely effective with a 12.5% success rate. With Pastrnak, Necas, and Hertl teaming up on the top unit, the talent is there to find greater success, but Czechia simply hasn't found much rhythm with the man advantage.
Denmark
Denmark's group stage went as oddsmakers expected. It lost 3-1 to Germany in the opener, and fell 6-3 to a high-powered American side before earning a 4-2 win over Latvia.
Denmark looked surprisingly scrappy early against the U.S.A. before running out of gas later on. There's an argument to be made that their showing versus the U.S.A. was a positive, but allowing 35 shots in a 4-2 win over Latvia was concerning.
Denmark has four NHLers on the team, and five if you count Oscar Fisker Mølgaard, who's played three games with the Seattle Kraken this year. Mølgaard has arguably been the team's second-best forward in the tournament, having generated two points in three games and averaging 4.3 scoring chance contributions per game, which ranks 30th among all skaters.
Ehlers has been — by a wide margin — the team's most dynamic offensive skater, as expected. While Ehlers has managed a steady output of three points in three games, his chance creation numbers are more impressive, and he ranks fourth among all skaters in the tournament.
Denmark held a 31% share of scoring chances in its first three games and 38.4% of the share of shots from the inner slot. The level of competition of the team has been fairly high, and head coach Mikael Gath's systems have generally looked sound, but there is a distinct lack of talent on the back end, which has been a natural concern.
Frederik Andersen will presumably get the start after stopping 33-of-35 shots in the team's important showdown versus Latvia on Sunday. Andersen holds a -7.0 GSAx and a .871 save percentage across 22 appearances with the Carolina Hurricanes this season.
Czechia vs. Denmark Prediction
Things will likely tighten up as we get into the do-or-die phase of the tournament.
Czechia has a pair of truly elite talents offensively, but the depth is a concern. Unless Necas and Pastrnak go nuclear in this matchup, it seems reasonable to expect Denmark to keep it somewhat competitive with a well-organized defensive performance.
There continues to be a huge disparity in betting prices from book to book in this tournament. Of the sides and totals available on the main regulated books, DraftKings' outlier price of -130 for the game to go under 6.5 appears to be my favorite, as it seems to be underselling the possibility of things tightening up. Other totals of 6 and 5.5 look to be more accurate, so I'd back under 6.5 if you can get it.
While it's contrary to that first look, Bet365's price of +120 for Necas to record two points looks to be my favorite price from a player prop perspective. Necas has looked extremely threatening in this tournament, and Czechia's offense has looked fairly one-dimensional. Though my general belief is that this game may be somewhat low event and potentially scrappier than expected, Bet365's outlier price of +120 looks a little too long to pass up.
Pick: Under 6.5 Total Goals -130 (DraftKings, Play 6.5 to -140), Martin Necas Over 1.5 Total Points +120 (Bet365, Play to +110)
