The United States women's hockey team enters its Olympic semifinal against Sweden as an overwhelming favorite, with Kalshi traders pricing a USA victory at 98 cents — which translates to a 98% probability of advancing to the gold medal game.
The prediction market shows stark confidence in the Americans, despite Sweden coming off a stunning quarterfinal upset. The market has also seen significant activity with over 25,000 contracts traded across both outcomes.
If you're curious about the market or want to make a USA vs Sweden prediction, be sure to use our Kalshi promo code to get started. Kalshi is legal in most states and offers markets on sports, culture, politics, and even weather.
USA vs Sweden Odds
The market confidence appears justified after the Americans demolished Italy 6-0 in the quarterfinals, with four-time Olympian Kendall Coyne Schofield netting back-to-back goals in a dominant second period. Additionally, Caroline Harvey has continued her record-breaking Olympics and now holds the mark for most points by an American defensewoman in a single Olympic tournament with nine points.
Sweden, however, shouldn't be completely dismissed. The Swedes shocked the Czech Republic 2-0 in the quarterfinals behind goaltender Ebba Svensson Träff, who posted her second shutout of the tournament with 29 saves. Notably, Svensson Träff had never played in a major international tournament before these Olympics, making her sudden emergence all the more remarkable.
Historical matchups favor the Americans significantly. In their last meeting at the 2024 Six Nations tournament, the USA routed Sweden 5-0 while outshooting it 33-16. That game featured many current Olympic roster players from both teams, though neither squad was at full strength.
The winner advances to face either Canada or Germany in the gold medal game. Sweden is coming off an upset victory over the bronze medal favorite Czech Republic, and will need another miraculous performance to overcome what many are calling "the best American women's hockey team ever."
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
