Germany and France meet in the qualifier round for the 2026 Winter Olympics. Puck drop is set for 6:10 a.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on CNBC and streamed on Peacock.
Germany is favored by 2.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-120o/ +100u). Germany is a -800 favorite to win outright, while France is +550 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Germany vs France predictions and Olympics picks.
Germany vs France Odds, Pick
- Germany vs. France Puck Line: Germany -2.5 (-140), France +2.5 (+120)
- Germany vs. France Over/Under: 6.5 (-120o / +100u)
- Germany vs. France Moneyline: Germany -800, France +550
Germany vs. France Preview
Germany
It’s pretty clear that the Germans are still trying to figure out their own identity.
Some of the world’s best players hail from Germany, but there still aren't enough of them to truly deem this nation a global powerhouse.
Take the preliminaries, for example. Germany came into these Olympics with expectations and hopes of competing with the four nations that took the world by storm last year.
Having a big four in Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle, JJ Peterka and Mo Seider surely helped its case, but the remainder of the roster didn’t carry its weight.
After a solid win over Denmark to open the tournament, Germany then put in an inexcusable effort against Latvia, losing 4-3. And a day after the Latvia loss, the USA came out and stomped the Germans 5-1.
The defensive side of the puck has a lot of issues outside of Seider. Players such as Moritz Müller, Jonas Muller, Fabio Wagner, and Leon Gawanke have plenty of experience and are fine defenders in their own right. But three of them have only played for DEL, and the other, in Gawanke, was never able to crack the NHL during his time in America.
Additionally, goaltending is a major pain point for Germany. Philipp Grubauer has had a long career in the NHL, and parlayed his three successful years in Colorado to a cushy contract with Seattle.
But since he’s gotten to Seattle, he’s arguably been one of the worst netminders in the league. Granted, he’s played better this season, playing to a 5.6 GSAx in his final 10 NHL games before the season’s pause, but he is an easily crackable netminder.
France
One thing is for sure about France: it won’t go down without a fight.
This has been a particularly rough tournament for the French. They nearly came out with a win against Czechia, but then the Czechs sat up from their couch and shifted into gear in the third period.
Then they got throttled by Canada, but not before Pierre Crinon started some antics against Tom Wilson, and eventually got himself suspended for the rest of the Olympics.
So they may not be the most talented, but they can sure pack a punch.
The problem for France is that it might not be enough to cause enough damage against Germany. This is a team that lacks any significant playmakers, with the only one to watch out for being Alex Texier. And he’s a middle-six NHL forward.
All tournament, France has been outscored 20-5 and the goaltending has always been a problem. Antoine Keller showed up in solid fashion during the opener against Switzerland, but since then, it’s been an underwhelming showing for him and Julian Junca.
I wonder if, with this being a do-or-die matchup, the French will show up with some fire, but against a top-heavy Germany roster, I have my doubts that they can do anything of significance.
Germany vs. France Prediction
As I said, I don't foresee France doing much in this game.
The French are a feisty bunch, but I anticipate Draisaitl, Stutzle, and Seider taking over this game to help the Germans get to the quarterfinals.
Sure, Germany has shown that it's vulnerable after getting taken down by Latvia, but you can argue that the Latvians are never an easy squad to take down. Heck, they opened up the tournament, giving USA some grief early on in their game.
On average, France has lost all of its games by an average of five goals, and with the puck line being 2.5, this feels like a fairly easy decision to me.
If you want to get crazy, it's not my first choice, but I do see some value in taking the under here.
When this game was announced, the lines opened at the under's odds of +120. Since then, the odds have dropped 20 points, indicating that the books see value in a lower-scoring duel.
Pick: Germany -2.5 (-140) | Under 6.5 (+100)
