I'm back with another edition of NHL best bets, and although the slate is small, I still have a couple of expert picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 11.
NHL Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NHL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NHL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Canadiens vs. Senators
The Ottawa Senators have sneakily been a top team in the NHL since returning from the Olympic break, and they have put themselves in a position to push for a playoff spot. They have a massive opportunity in front of them tonight as they host the Montreal Canadiens, who they're chasing in the standings and are seven points behind.
The Senators are 4-0-2 since returning, and their defense has been a big reason for their success. Over the course of those six games, they've only allowed 14 goals, and while Linus Ullmark has been solid in goal, the skaters in front of him are doing a great job at limiting their opponents' chances. Since the return, the Senators have been the third-best team in the NHL in terms of allowing high-danger chances against at 5v5, surrendering just 8.39 HDCA per game. The key to this game for the Senators is keeping the play at 5v5. As of late, the Senators have been the better team at even strength, as the Canadiens are allowing 12.60 high-danger chances against at 5v5, the ninth-worst in the league in this span.
Montreal has a massive goaltending issue right now. Sam Montembeault is the expected starter for tonight's game, and his game hasn't been pretty since the break. Montembeault is 0-0-2 while skating to an .847 save percentage and a 4.28 goals against average. Montreal is skating to a seventh-worst expected goals against per game right now (3.10 xGA/60), while the Senators have the league's second-best rating at 2.23 xGA/60.
While it's clear that the Senators have the edge defending tonight and in goal, they've also been the better team offensively, specifically at even-strength. Montreal has the advantage on the power play, but at 5v5, the Senators have a third-best expected goals share (57.36%), meaning that they're out-chancing their opponents at even-strength in this span. On the flip side, Montreal is skating to a 47.42%, validating that they're being out-chanced at 5v5.
Ottawa desperately needs this game tonight, and they should be able to keep it rolling on home ice.
Pick: Ottawa Senators to Win in Regulation (-120)
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Capitals vs. Flyers
Although the Washington Capitals were sellers at this year's trade deadline, they're not necessarily out of the playoff race just yet. Technically, the Philadelphia Flyers aren't out of it either, but there isn't as much hope for them to potentially figure things out.
The Flyers have been struggling a bit offensively as of late. They're scoring 2.00 goals per game over the course of their past seven contests, and their power play is only clicking at a 15% rate. Unfortunately for the Flyers, all signs point toward facing Logan Thompson tonight, who should be in the crease for the Capitals.
If the Capitals are going to find a way to squeak into the playoffs, it's going to be on the shoulders of Thompson. He has had an incredible season in the crease, skating to the league's second-best goals saved above expected, as he has a +24.5 rating in this category. Since the break, Thompson is 3-2-0 while boasting a .914 save percentage with a 2.23 goals against average. That said, the Capitals have not necessarily been soaring offensively, and the Flyers have been defending pretty well, so it will come as a challenge for Washington to score some goals tonight.
The Flyers have been the second-best team in the NHL since returning from the break in regards to limiting high-danger chances against at 5v5 (7.84 against), and are allowing just 2.86 goals against per game. It's not like the Capitals are lighting it up right now, either; they're scoring just 3.00 goals per game during this stretch, and their power play isn't clicking as well as it has in the past. Since the return, their power play is at a 16.7% rate. Simply put, it won't be easy for Washington to fill the net tonight.
We're rooting for the goalies tonight.
Pick: Under 6 (-115)
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