The Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes meet in Game 1 of the NHL Stanley Cup Finals tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Hurricanes are priced at +170 to cover the puck line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 5.5 (-120o / -100u). The Hurricanes are a -150 favorite to win outright, while the Golden Knights are +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes predictions and NHL picks.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes Prediction
Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes Prediction, Picks
- Golden Knights vs Hurricanes Pick: Over 5.5 Goals
My best bet for Golden Knights vs Hurricanes is Over 5.5 Goals. For updated odds, visit our NHL odds page.
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Odds, Pick
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 5.5 -120o / -100u | +125 |
| Hurricanes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +167 | 5.5 -120o / -100u | -151 |
- Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Spread: Hurricanes -1.5 (+170 ), Golden Knights +1.5 (-205)
- Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Over/Under: 5.5 (-120o / -100u)
- Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Moneyline: Golden Knights +125, Hurricanes -150
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes NHL Kalshi Odds
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Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Preview
Vegas Golden Knights Betting Preview
While former head coach Bruce Cassidy had reportedly fallen out of favor with the majority of the roster, it did still appear clear that Vegas easily could have held a better record at the time of his firing. Under Cassidy, Vegas ranked fifth in expected goal share, played to a record of 6-16 in three-on-three, and held the fifth-lowest save percentage in the NHL.
John Tortorella was wise not to make overly significant structural changes when he took over with eight games left in the season. With Carter Hart healthy and playing at an elevated level, and a more positive atmosphere in the room, Vegas has played to a 19-4-1 record under Tortorella.
The Knights entered the season as the fourth favorite to win the Stanley Cup, and it is fairly easy to explain why they underperformed, finishing with 95 points before turning the corner late in the year.
Though Frederik Andersen holds excellent numbers on paper this postseason, it still feels as though Hart could outperform him in the series. Hart has played to a +7.7 GSAx rating and a .922 save percentage this postseason and is a major reason Vegas has reached this point. He is currently priced at +1400 to win the Conn Smythe, and that number is likely a little longer due to a belief that a certain portion of voters may be unwilling to vote for him following his controversial court case.
Hart's play has been critical to the Knights' success, but they have also been rock-solid defensively. Vegas has limited opponents to just 2.97 xGA/60 this postseason and has effectively leaned on a defensive zone system in which it never brings its defenders above the circles, letting the center chase those pucks and staying committed to protecting the front of the net at all costs.
The Knights feature a well-balanced offensive attack, as Tortorella has opted to employ each of his elite offensive skaters, Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, and Mark Stone, on different units, which will present a much different challenge to the Hurricanes than any previous opponent has this postseason.
Stone missed the first two games of Round 3 with an injury but recorded two goals and an assist in Games 3 and 4. While he is surely dealing with a nagging injury, which has been true for much of the later stages of his career, he is seemingly still capable of being a difference maker in the series.
The Knights' power play has succeeded on 23.9% of opportunities this postseason and enters this series off a strong showing versus an Avalanche penalty kill that ranked first in the league during the regular season. Carolina’s highly aggressive penalty kill has been very effective this postseason, and the unit that wins that battle will likely be a key factor in determining the winner of this series.
Jeremy Lauzon is the only Knights skater who is unavailable due to injury for Game 1, and both rosters are seemingly quite healthy relative to what we usually see this time of year.
Carolina Hurricanes Betting Preview
Entering the postseason, a large portion of NHL media and observers remained reluctant to credit Carolina as a full-fledged Stanley Cup contender because it had failed to get past the truly dominant Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Final. After arguably the most convincing runs to the Cup Final in the salary cap era, the narrative has now become whether Carolina truly beat any formidable teams.
The Hurricanes have played to a 64.17% expected-goal share this postseason, hold a 42-21 goal differential, and have a 12-1 record.
Though the Hurricanes certainly have not been the strongest trio of opponents, the perception that they have not beaten anyone good is, in part, due to how poorly they have made the Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers and Montreal Canadiens look.
There’s a pretty strong case to be made that if the Senators were to receive good goaltending, which they did in Round 1, they were actually quite a strong team. Ottawa ranked third in expected goal share this season, while the Avalanche ranked first, Carolina ranked second, and Vegas ranked fifth.
Philadelphia was certainly a little more illegitimate, but it did rank as the top team in xGA/60 following the Olympic break, which has historically been a highly effective indicator of postseason success. Montreal was seemingly a fairly weak conference finalist, but it did sneak by two high-quality opponents before being entirely dismantled by Carolina.
Following each of those series, it’s been surprising how much of the talk has been angled towards the idea that Carolina simply beat a paper tiger when the Knights beat the Utah Mammoth and Anaheim Ducks in Rounds 1 and 2, who generally were not overly respected.
Contrary to Vegas, Carolina plays a man-on-man system in the defensive zone. It employs defenders to pinch aggressively in the offensive zone and step up on plays early in the neutral zone.
The top line of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis has been mildly disappointing, but they have hung in respectably in matchups versus opposing superstars, as has the elite defensive line of Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook and Nikolaj Ehlers. The play of those two lines in tough matchups has freed up the trio of Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake and Taylor Hall to shred softer matchups, and the trio has outscored opponents 12-4 this postseason while playing to a 70.4% expected goal share.
The Hurricanes' defensive core has been rock solid from top to bottom, as all three pairings have been effective this postseason. K’Andre Miller has been the team’s best blue-liner, and with Miller on the ice, the Hurricanes have allowed only 0.77 GA/60 and outscored opponents 13-3 with the pairing of Miller and Sean Walker on the ice.
From a statistical perspective, there’s an argument to be made that Miller has been the most important skater for Carolina this postseason and that taking him away would have caused a greater effect than losing any of Hall, Stankoven or Blake would have. While it’s unlikely he will get enough credit to win the Conn Smythe, taking a stab backing Miller to win it at +7500 looks to be a worthy long shot.
Among Hurricanes players, Andersen is the favorite to win the Conn Smythe at +225, having played to a +11.5 GSAx and .931 save percentage. Andersen was quite shaky early on against Montreal before he stabilized, while his team allowed next to nothing in the later portion of the series.
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Prediction
The prices on sides in Game 1 seem relatively fair, and I'd rather see how Game 1 shakes out before tapping into this series in that regard.
Both of these teams are elite defensively, and chances are at some point in the series we will be riding with the under, and it wouldn't be remotely surprising to me if a potential Game 6 or 7 even ended up featuring what has become a very rare total of a flat five. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see Game 1 of the series be a little more high-event, with both teams looking to set an aggressive tone.
The last nine Stanley Cup Final Game 1s have averaged 6.55 combined goals, and then tightened up the rest of the way. There is some logic that suggests this series could follow a similar script.
When everyone’s reads are on point, Carolina's system is relatively foolproof, but it can lead to a tendency to give up extremely dangerous looks against the run of play, and the Knights have been elite at capitalizing on miscues from the opposition this postseason.
Despite his strong results overall this postseason, Andersen still feels like somewhat of a question mark in goal. His numbers have been heavily aided by the team's defensive dominance, but the Knights present a new challenge with an elite forward on all three lines and an exceptional power play.
Meanwhile, the main reason this Hurricanes team is different from years past is their elevated offensive upside and improved attack off the rush. Carolina has generated 4.51 xGF/60 this postseason, which is by a wide margin the best mark of any team.
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals -120 (FanDuel, Play to -125)
