The Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights meet in Game 3 of the NHL Stanley Cup Finals tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Hurricanes are priced at +230 to cover the puck line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 5.5 (-125o / +105u). The game is priced as a pick-em (-110/-110).
Let's get into my Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights predictions and NHL picks.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes Prediction
- Hurricanes vs Golden Knights Pick: First Period Under 1.5 Total Goals (Bet365, Play to +100)
My best bet for Hurricanes vs Golden Knights is First Period Under 1.5. For updated odds, visit our NHL odds page and check out VegasInsider's futures odds and action report.
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Odds, Pick
| Hurricanes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +230 | 5.5 -126o / +105u | -110 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -282 | 5.5 -126o / +105u | -110 |
- Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Spread: Hurricanes -1.5 (+230), Golden Knights +1.5 (-280)
- Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Over/Under: 5.5 (-125o / +105u)
- Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Moneyline: Hurricanes -110, Golden Knights -110
Hurricanes vs Golden Knights NHL Kalshi Odds
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Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Preview
Carolina Hurricanes Preview
The Hurricanes faced their real bit of adversity of the postseason in Game 2, as they trailed by two midway through the third period and were staring down an 0-2 series deficit. For much of the second period and early part of the third, Carolina's push to cut into the Knights' lead felt quite lethargic before Logan Stankoven scored on a nice individual effort, leading into a highly chaotic final 9:40 of regulation before a convincing showing in overtime from Carolina.
Frederik Andersen finished with an ugly save percentage of .783 in Game 1. But on a goal-by-goal basis, only one of the Knights' five goals would ever be expected to be saved, and Andersen's stat line was a depiction of some missed assignments from Carolina in the defensive zone.
Carolina's defensive zone coverage was much improved in Game 2, allowing only 2.55 xGA/60. Brett Howden scored on two strong individual efforts off the rush to stake the Knights to their lead, but those individual moments of excellence were two of the Knights’ only meaningful chances in the early portion of the game.
With 16 goals throughout the first two games of the series, this final between two elite defensive teams has not yet been the defensive slog that was widely anticipated. The majority of Game 2 was much more low-event than the final scoreline suggested, though, and it feels logical to expect high-danger scoring chances to continue to dry up as the series shifts to Vegas.
Carolina generated 4.51 xGF/60 in the first three rounds of the postseason, and its improved attack off the rush and elevated offensive upside have been two major reasons this might be the year it finally wins it all under Rod Brind'Amour. However, in the series, the Hurricanes have generated only 2.60 xGF/60 (Evolving Hockey), and the Knights have made their overall shot quality look a little more like what we have seen in previous postseason failures.
The Hurricanes have generated only 2.0 chances per game off the cycle and 8.0 chances per game off the forecheck and faceoffs (per Dimitri Filipovic). However, defensively, Carolina was much better in Game 2, and managed to win a game where the Knights were once again quite clinical in terms of converting the meaningful opportunities that they did generate.
Brind’Amour finally shuffled his top nine while trailing in Game 2, after another fairly unconvincing start from the trio of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis. He bumped Jordan Martinook up to the top line and moved Jarvis alongside Jordan Staal and Nikolaj Ehlers. As you would expect, though, Brind’Amour did not shake up the trio of Jordan Blake, Logan Stankoven and Taylor Hall, who had another strong performance in Game 3, including a critical goal from Stankoven. It's unclear if those adjustments will hold in this matchup, but the potential moves are something worth noting for prop bettors.
After stopping 23 of 26 shots faced in Game 2, Andersen now holds a +8.1 GSAx rating and .917 save percentage this postseason. In a similar fashion to Game 1, it’s hard to say that Andersen was truly at fault on any of the Knights’ three goals, despite finishing with another well below-average save percentage.
Vegas Golden Knights Preview
Though the Knights had a very legitimate opportunity to return home up two goals to none, particularly if a controversial goal review had gone their way, they still have to feel happy with how the series has started. Vegas did a fairly good job of limiting the Hurricanes’ true Grade “A” scoring chances off extended sequences in the offensive zone, and has done well to make many of the chances coming Andersen’s way legitimate opportunities to score.
Prior to this series, Carolina’s average shot quality this postseason had been considerably improved relative to years past, but the Knights have done a fairly good job of making some of the concerns from previous Hurricanes postseason failures come to fruition thus far. The Knights don't bring their blue-liners up past the circles in the defensive zone, instead employing their defensively accountable center core to chase pucks and staying committed to a strategy focused on protecting the front of the net at all costs.
The most clear and obvious area for the Knights to try to improve moving forward in the series is the power play, which has looked quite poor while going O-fer in the series.
Finding greater success in that regard is a task that is much easier said than done, as the Hurricanes’ penalty kill has done an excellent job of denying zone entries all postseason long and has made great reads on when to trigger on contested and/or bobbled pucks thus far in the series.
Vegas will attempt to try to clean up its power play zone entries and be more direct in putting pucks on goal in this matchup, but Carolina's penalty kill has been a well-oiled machine all postseason long and does an excellent job of making quick reads to take away the next available option.
Both teams consistently employed the high flip out of the defensive zone in Game 2, which has been a fairly common theme on Cup-winning rosters dating back to the Pittsburgh Penguins’ 2016 and 2017 teams that went back-to-back, and is something we will probably see a lot more of moving forward. It reduces the risk of a breakdown versus a heavy forecheck and, as we saw in Game 2 on Mark Jankowski and Brett Howden's goal, can force defenders into awkward decisions deep in the neutral zone.
Like Andersen, Hart’s numbers so far in the series are not good, but reviewing Carolina’s goals one by one, his play doesn’t seem to be entirely concerning. He holds a +5.3 GSAx rating and a .915 save percentage this postseason, and it still feels safe to expect him to make the saves he is supposed to make moving forward.
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Prediction
In Game 1, we went with a selection on Over 5.5 Total goals, but I always expected things to tighten up in the later stages of the series. While Game 2 ultimately featured seven goals, the underlying statistics match the eye test in showing that the majority of the game was well played defensively, before a wild finish to the third period handed a horrid beat to under bettors.
Carolina’s two-goal rally in Game 2 was surprising given that it had been struggling to generate many meaningful opportunities to close out the deficit, but the Hurricanes were also somewhat unlucky to even be chasing the game, and Howden did well to make them pay for two of their only defensive miscues.
The Hurricanes have allowed only 1.33 goals against per game on the road this season. While the Knights are the best offensive team they have played, it still seems likely that we will see Carolina give itself a chance with a simple, well-structured performance on the road in this matchup. Their defensive zone structure was much improved in Game 2 compared to Game 1, and we should see Carolina build on that strength in this matchup.
Betting this game to feature under 5.5 goals at +105 also seems to be a reasonable option, but taking the same price for the first period to feature under 1.5 goals at the same price appears to be the superior play to me and is my best bet for this exciting matchup.
Pick: First Period Under 1.5 +105 (Bet365, Play to +100)
