On April 17, Polymarket had Jordan Staal at 2.5% to win the Conn Smythe. Right now, he's sitting at 50.5%.
That number tells the story of this Stanley Cup Final better than anything else.
Heading into the series against the Vegas Golden Knights, Mitch Marner was the overwhelming favorite. The Vegas forward had put together one of the most dominant playoff runs in recent memory: 29 points in 20 games, two hat tricks, and a highlight-reel goal in Game 3 of the Final that had the highest projected goal rate of any offensive zone attempt this postseason.
Analysts were calling him a lock. One former NHLer said on TSN that it wouldn't matter who won the Cup: Marner was getting the trophy either way.
Then Jordan Staal started scoring.
Jordan Staal’s Historic Stanley Cup Final Run: A 37-Year-Old Rewriting the Record Books
To put Staal’s resurgence into perspective, the last time he skated in a Stanley Cup Final was June 12, 2009, as a 21-year-old kid winning it all with the Pittsburgh Penguins. It took him 17 years, a trade to Carolina, and a grueling six-year playoff drought just to make his way back to hockey's biggest stage.
In a modern NHL increasingly dominated by ridiculously skilled teenagers and twenty-somethings, the 37-year-old captain is a proud elder millennial delivering a masterclass in longevity. He’s proving that an old-school shutdown center can still completely dictate the terms of a modern championship series.
Staal entered the Final with two goals in 13 playoff games. Not exactly the profile of a Conn Smythe frontrunner. But something shifted once the series began. He scored in Game 1. Then Game 2. Then Game 3, 4, and 5.
After his goal Thursday night, a redirect in front of Carter Hart that tied the game at 1-1, Staal became the first player in 70 years to score in each of the first five games of a Stanley Cup Final. The last to do it was Jean Béliveau, in 1956.
He now has six goals in the series and eight total in these playoffs. Vegas coach John Tortorella, not exactly known for handing out compliments, put it plainly after Game 4: Staal was "killing us in front of the net."
Carolina leads the series 3-2 heading into Game 6.
Polymarket Odds: The Conn Smythe Trophy Market Shift
On Polymarket's "NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner" market, Staal has climbed from 2.5% in April to 50.5% today. Marner, who peaked around 57% before the Final began, has dropped to 28%.
The shift reflects something the Reddit hockey community picked up on this week: has there ever been a more unlikely Conn Smythe frontrunner than a 37-year-old defensive center who wasn't even listed as a longshot two weeks ago?
Part of what makes Marner's case complicated is precedent. Connor McDavid won the Conn Smythe in 2024 despite the Oilers losing the Final to Florida: so the trophy can go to a player on the losing team. Marner still leads all skaters in points (29), assists (19), and a long list of advanced metrics. His case doesn't disappear if Vegas loses.
But markets move on momentum, and right now all the momentum belongs to Staal. He's a shutdown center playing the best offensive hockey of his playoff career, on a team two wins from the Cup, in a series that hockey fans across the board agree has been one of the most entertaining Finals in years.
The market’s massive swing proves that when the Stanley Cup is in the building, raw postseason mystique can completely upend the most sophisticated spreadsheets. From 2.5% to 50.5%, the market didn't see Jordan Staal coming. Neither did anyone else.
