The Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes meet in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Hurricanes are priced at +158 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6.5 (112o / -138u). The Hurricanes are a -160 favorite to win outright, while the Golden Knights are +132 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes predictions and NHL picks.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes Prediction
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes Prediction
- Hurricanes vs Golden Knights Pick: Regulation Tie +320 (DraftKings/Bet365, Play to +295)
My best bet for Hurricanes vs Golden Knights is on Regulation Tie. For updated odds, visit our NHL odds page and check out VegasInsider's futures odds and action report.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 6.5 112o / -138u | +132 |
| Hurricanes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 6.5 112o / -138u | -160 |
- Golden Knights vs Hurricanes moneyline: Golden Knights +132, Hurricanes -160
- Golden Knights vs Hurricanes over/under: 6.5 (112o / -138u)
- Golden Knights vs Hurricanes spread: Golden Knights +1.5 (-200), Hurricanes -1.5 (+158)
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes NHL Kalshi Odds
If you want to trade on Golden Knights vs Hurricanes at Kalshi, sign up using our Kalshi promo code. This prediction market app is legal in most states and offers a variety of unique markets beyond the NHL.
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Preview
Vegas Golden Knights Betting Preview
This chaotic series has featured a surprising amount of defensive lapses from both sides, leading to blown multi-goal leads in each of the four games, and all four have also been tied at some point in the third period. As expected, the Hurricanes have generated more shots on target, but the Knights have done a good job of creating high-quality scoring opportunities. Reviewing the tape, that is an obvious reason Carolina's goaltenders have combined for a save percentage of .850.
While Carolina outshot the Knights 28-21 in Game 4, it certainly did not feel like the Hurricanes had a commanding hold on the game. High-danger scoring chances at even strength finished tied 8-8, while offensive zone possession time was also quite equal.
The Knights have mainly done an excellent job of protecting the front of the net this postseason, even in spurts where they have been outplayed, and generally having at least one defender present to clear out that type of look is a strength of their defensive zone system. Several players made bad reads on Jordan Staal's game-winning tally in Game 4, as four Knights defenders pursued Seth Jarvis in the corner and came up empty-handed.
Contrary to Carolina, which plays man-on-man in the defensive zone, Vegas's defenders will not track pucks above the circles, and the team leans on a strong center core to make reads on which pucks to track down. That lapse will hurt, as ultimately it cost the Knights what was another evenly contested game.
It's not just the Knights that have made more mistakes defensively than was expected entering the series, though. In many instances in this series, the Knights' forwards have made good reads on when to cheat early out of the defensive zone and capitalized on Carolina's aggressiveness to create some good looks on plays going the other way. That has been especially true in the long-change second period, where the Knights have been entirely dominant in the series.
The Golden Knights have played to a 52.06% expected-goal share in the series, and though they are generating only 23.73 shots per 60, many of those shots have been high-quality scoring chances.
Jack Eichel is arguably the only star skater from the Knights who has had somewhat of a disappointing series, though that perception mainly comes down to his inability to convert on some quality scoring chances. Eichel has had 21 scoring chances in the series, and many of those have been of high quality.
Carter Hart holds an .852 save percentage in the series and has certainly not been as dominant as he was earlier on in the postseason. He will get the start in Game 5, looking to bounce back after a modest performance in Game 4.
Carolina Hurricanes Betting Preview
The Hurricanes stormed out to a 2-0 lead in Game 4, but following Mark Stone's goal midway through the first, the game felt like a coin flip. They got a lucky break at the end of the first as a potential Brayden McNabb goal was deemed just after the buzzer, but they still allowed Vegas to tie the game thanks to a sloppy defensive performance in the second period.
As someone who bet on Carolina to allow fewer than three goals in Game 4, I'd say the bet was a deserving loss, even though Carolina allowed only 21 shots. Relative to the previous three rounds, Carolina has been drastically less dominant defensively, and that seems to be the primary reason why Frederik Andersen's results have dropped off so significantly.
That's not to say the Hurricanes have been bad by any means, but a 2-2 series scoreline entering Game 5 certainly seems to be a fair take on how the matchups have played out, given that you could argue all four games could have gone either way.
As Rod Brind’Amour acknowledged, it’s not overly realistic to dominate a team like Vegas for the entirety of any game. That was known entering the series. But even compared to some of Carolina's previous playoff failures against incredible Florida Panthers teams, the lack of sequences in which the Hurricanes completely own possession and pour shot after shot on target has been somewhat surprising.
The Hurricanes are still doing enough to win, though, and the main areas for improvement entering this game will likely be aiming to shore up reads in the defensive zone and at the opposing blue line. In some spots, it seems fair to say the Hurricanes could trade away a little bit of possession time to prevent the type of breakdowns caused by overcommitment that have been surprisingly common.
Jaccob Slavin has not been overly effective in the series and has had a down year overall, a fact that would likely be discussed more consistently if he had built up a well-deserved reputation as one of the game’s best shutdown defenders throughout his lengthy career. The Knights’ top stars have done a good job of exposing their reduced effectiveness thus far in the series, which has been one minor reason for the surprisingly high score lines.
Through his first two appearances of the postseason, Bussi holds a .900 save percentage and +0.4 GSAx rating, and it would be very surprising if he does not get the start in Game 5.
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes NHL Pick
The Knights closed at -105 in Game 4, and based on how the game played out, the change in venue seems to be garnering a lot of credit from oddsmakers, with the Knights sitting at +135 currently. Based on what we have seen all postseason long, and from these two teams in particular, that seems to be enough of an adjustment to keep me from backing Carolina.
This does seem to be a good spot to target the regulation tie bet at +320. Two of the first four games have gone to overtime, and each of the four games has been tied at some point in the final 10 minutes of play. Though there's been a highly abnormal amount of multi-goal leads blown, overall, every game has still been quite evenly contested.
Though the Knights are fairly large underdogs in this matchup, neither team has consistently been able to outplay the other for an extended period of play, and that seems likely to hold true in Game 5. With that in mind, there seems to be a good chance that this game will feature another close score-line late in the third, keeping the overtime longshot in play at a long price.
Pick: Regulation Tie +320 (DraftKings, Play to +295)
